CVR Energy, Inc (CVI) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $3.4B
CVR Energy, Inc
CVI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $4.57 to $9.14 (+100.0%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +1.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 71% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.02 – $39.28 · fair‑value band $6.84 – $11.42 · the $31.15 price screens above the $9.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
CVR Energy, Inc (CVI) currently trades at $31.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.14, implying the stock looks roughly 70.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, CVR Energy, Inc generated revenue of $7.5B at a net margin of -0.6%. Revenue grew 20.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.7%. Net debt stands at $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.84 (bear case) to $11.42 (bull case); at $31.15, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -71%, CVI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($19.52) versus Growth Earnings ($2.90). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CVR Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in renewable fuels and petroleum refining and marketing, and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing activities in the United States. It operates through three segments: Petroleum, Renewables, and Nitrogen Fertilizer.
Full company description
CVR Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in renewable fuels and petroleum refining and marketing, and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing activities in the United States. It operates through three segments: Petroleum, Renewables, and Nitrogen Fertilizer. The Petroleum segment refines and markets transportation fuels, such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and distillates; and includes crude gathering and logistics activities that support refinery operations. This segment also owns and operates a coking, medium-sour crude oil refinery in Kansas; and a crude oil refinery in Oklahoma. This segment serves retailers, railroads, farm cooperatives, and other refiners/marketers. The Renewables segment refines renewable feedstocks, including soybean oil, corn oil, and other renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel; and marketing of renewables products. The Nitrogen Fertilizer segment owns and operates a nitrogen fertilizer plant in Coffeyville, Kansas that utilizes a pet coke gasification process to produce nitrogen fertilizer products; and a nitrogen fertilizer facility in East Dubuque, Illinois that produces nitrogen fertilizers in the form of ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and nitric acid. This segment primarily markets UAN products to agricultural customers; and ammonia products to agricultural and industrial customers. The company was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas. CVR Energy, Inc. is a subsidiary of Icahn Enterprises Holdings L.P.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CVR Energy, Inc reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2025 versus $7.2B in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was $27.0M in FY2025, compounding +1.9%/yr from FY2021.
CVI screens 71% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- CVR Energy Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- CVR Energy Inc (CVI) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Operational Performance Drives ...
- CVR Energy (CVI) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
- CVR Energy Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,293 | ₹835.66 | -35% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $309.65 | $127.32 | -59% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $283.74 | $135.80 | -52% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $196.16 | $101.04 | -48% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.10 | €4.07 | -87% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 81.30 TWD | 16.68 TWD | -79% |
| Indian Oil Corporation IOC | ₹138.96 | ₹417.35 | +200% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $88.59 | $48.90 | -45% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹315.55 | ₹846.81 | +168% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 121,400 KRW | 58,865 KRW | -52% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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