Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

CVR Energy Inc (CVI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of CVR Energy Inc $9.12, price $51.52, upside -82.3%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? Yes
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Energy · US · ISIN US12662P1084

Thin data Sep 27, 2026

CVR Energy Inc

CVI · US

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $9.12 · Strongly overvalued (−82.3%)

!Quality 52/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +12.8 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 0.8% net margin (TTM)

!High debt · negative free cash flow

!1.1% dividend yield · Watch coverage

!Trails peers (4/14)

!Narrow moat 40/100

!Insider activity 40/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on dividend: 22 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear $6.38 to bull $16.95 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 52/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.99 – $54.14 · fair‑value band $6.38 – $16.95 · the $51.52 price screens above the $9.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

CVR Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in renewable fuels and petroleum refining and marketing, and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing activities in the United States. It operates through three segments: Petroleum, Renewables, and Nitrogen Fertilizer. The Petroleum segment refines and markets transportation fuels, such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and distillates; and includes crude gathering and logistics activities that support refinery operations. This segment also owns and operates a coking, medium-sour crude oil refinery in Kansas; and a crude oil refinery in Oklahoma. This segment serves retailers, railroads, farm cooperatives, and other refiners/marketers. The Renewables segment refines renewable feedstocks, including soybean oil, corn oil, and other renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel; and marketing of renewables products. The Nitrogen Fertilizer segment owns and operates a nitrogen fertilizer plant in Coffeyville, Kansas that utilizes a pet coke gasification process to produce nitrogen fertilizer products; and a nitrogen fertilizer facility in East Dubuque, Illinois that produces nitrogen fertilizers in the form of ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and nitric acid. This segment primarily markets UAN products to agricultural customers; and ammonia products to agricultural and industrial customers. The company was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas. CVR Energy, Inc. is a subsidiary of Icahn Enterprises Holdings L.P.

Stock analysis

CVR Energy Inc (CVI) currently trades at $51.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.12, implying the stock looks roughly 465.0% overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $11.90 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $51.52 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.18, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $6.38 (bear) to $16.95 (bull), the price of $51.52 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

CVR Energy Inc reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2025 versus $7.2B in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was $27.0M in FY2025, compounding +1.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $5.2B · P/E ratio 75.8 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) $0.6800 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 24.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 154% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −64% fair-value upside, at −82%, CVI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($1.18 to $11.90). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.

Bear $6.38 Fair Value $9.12 Bull $16.95

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0814 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income $5.28 $5.16 $4.47 74

Owner Earnings $8.04 $11.90 $18.95 72

EPV $0.5400 $1.18 $1.73 69

All 13 models by family

DCF Models

Owner Earnings $8.04 $11.90 $18.95 72

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $1.83 $3.15 $3.86 64

EPV $0.5400 $1.18 $1.73 69

Multiples

P/E Multiple $2.82 $3.76 $4.70 63

P/S Multiple $3.42 $4.57 $5.71 57

P/B Multiple $3.42 $4.57 $5.71 55

EV/EBIT $0.2000 $1.44 $2.69 57

EV/EBITDA $4.11 $6.66 $9.22 65

EV/Revenue $0.9900 $2.94 $4.88 49

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $3.63 $4.87 $7.26 53

Economic Profit

Residual Income $5.28 $5.16 $4.47 74

ROIC Compounder $0.5400 $1.18 $1.73 66

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $2.03 $2.90 $3.77 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75

Profitability 35

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 60

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 34

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 35

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 80

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 44

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 86

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 91

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100

Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Revenue growth 1 year

−5.9%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−13.1%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+12.8%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year

Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+8.3%

’14

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.

−37.0%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−38.1%

Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−33.2% vs −18.0%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → 2%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

CVI screens 465% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype

Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

10 mid-cap energy stocks with the strongest momentum grades Seeking Alpha · Sep 17, 2026
CVR Energy (CVI) Draws Options Attention, Is The Upside Already Priced In? Yahoo Finance · Aug 11, 2026
CVR Energy (CVI) Stock Looks Reasonable On Earnings While Returns Look Stretched Yahoo Finance · Aug 11, 2026

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 107 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 52 · Below median

Fair Value upside −82.3% · Bottom 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 24.3% · Top 25%

Return on assets 18.3% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 2.7% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 2.9% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 55.5% · Top 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 1.1% · Bottom 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 2.33× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 75.8× · Priciest 25%

P/B 7.09× · Priciest 25%

P/S (TTM) 2.04× · Priciest 25%

EV/EBITDA 27.5× · Priciest 25%

PEG 0.71× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 15

FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 44

PAST (return on equity)97 · sector 41

HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 81

DIVIDEND (yield)22 · sector 58

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

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CVR Energy Inc · Fair Value
$9.12 −465%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CVI" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">CVR Energy Inc · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$9.12</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−465%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CVR Energy Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CVI

Frequently asked questions

Is CVR Energy Inc (CVI) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.12 versus a price of $51.52, about −82% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of CVI?

Our model-based fair value for CVR Energy Inc is $9.12 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $51.52.

What is the quality score of CVI?

CVR Energy Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for CVR Energy Inc (CVI)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.12 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.38, optimistic scenario $16.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the CVR Energy Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $9.12, about −82% upside versus a price of $51.52 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.38, optimistic scenario $16.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of CVR Energy Inc (CVI)?

CVR Energy Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).

Does CVR Energy Inc pay a dividend?

CVR Energy Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.11% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of CVR Energy Inc (CVI)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CVR Energy Inc it is $9.12 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $51.52. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is CVR Energy Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 27, 2026, CVI trades above its calculated fair value: price $51.52, fair value $9.12, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of CVI?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($51.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.12). For CVR Energy Inc the two are $42.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is CVR Energy Inc worth?

The market values CVR Energy Inc at about $5.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $51.52; our models calculate a fair value of $9.12 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CVI?

Our models span a range for CVR Energy Inc: cautious scenario $6.38, base $9.12, optimistic $16.95 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $51.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of CVI?

CVR Energy Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 75.8 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.12 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 7.1, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 27.5.

What is the PEG ratio of CVI?

The PEG ratio of CVR Energy Inc is 0.71 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.

How solid is the balance sheet of CVR Energy Inc (CVI)?

Balance-sheet figures for CVR Energy Inc (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 24.3%, debt of 2.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is CVI from its 52-week high?

CVR Energy Inc trades at $51.52, about 5% below its 52-week high of $54.14 and 154% above the low of $20.28 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.12 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to CVR Energy Inc?

From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is CVR Energy Inc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $51.52, calculated fair value $9.12 (−82%), Quality Score 52/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of CVI calculated?

We run CVR Energy Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. CVR Energy Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of CVR Energy Inc (CVI)?

The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $51.52. Our model-based fair value is $9.12, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with CVR Energy Inc right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($6.38 to $16.95). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Where does the earnings growth of CVR Energy Inc (CVI) come from?

Earnings per share at CVR Energy Inc grew +7.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.8 %, EBIT margin +4.1 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of CVR Energy Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of CVR Energy Inc (CVI)?

The market capitalisation of CVR Energy Inc is $5.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of CVR Energy Inc (CVI)?

The price-to-sales ratio of CVR Energy Inc is 0.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of CVR Energy Inc (CVI)?

Earnings per share at CVR Energy Inc are $0.6800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 75.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of CVR Energy Inc (CVI)?

The dividend yield of CVR Energy Inc is 1.1% (payout 83.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of CVR Energy Inc (CVI)?

The net margin of CVR Energy Inc is 0.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of CVR Energy Inc (CVI)?

The return on equity (ROE) of CVR Energy Inc is 24.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of CVR Energy Inc (CVI)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CVR Energy Inc is 11.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of CVR Energy Inc (CVI)?

The operating margin of CVR Energy Inc is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at CVR Energy Inc (CVI)?

Revenue at CVR Energy Inc is growing +55.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at CVR Energy Inc (CVI)?

Earnings per share at CVR Energy Inc are growing −68.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does CVR Energy Inc (CVI) generate?

The free cash flow of CVR Energy Inc is −$41.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does CVR Energy Inc (CVI) carry?

The net debt of CVR Energy Inc is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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