Crimson Wine (CWGL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Crimson Wine $0.80, price $4.49, upside -82.2%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $0.8000 · Strongly overvalued (−82%)
!Quality 54/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +0.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.3% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers(5/12)
!Narrow moat16/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.90 – $9.55 · fair‑value band $0.7000 – $0.9900 · the $4.49 price screens above the $0.8000 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Crimson Wine Group, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, produces and sells luxury wines in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Wholesale and Direct to Consumer. It also involved in selling of bulk wines and grapes and other non-wine retail sales, such as merchandise; and provision of custom winemaking, special event, and tasting services.
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Crimson Wine Group, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, produces and sells luxury wines in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Wholesale and Direct to Consumer. It also involved in selling of bulk wines and grapes and other non-wine retail sales, such as merchandise; and provision of custom winemaking, special event, and tasting services. The company sells its products under the Pine Ridge Vineyards, Archery Summit, Chamisal Vineyards, Seghesio Family Vineyards, Double Canyon, Seven Hills Winery, and Malene Wines brands. It offers wines to distributors; directly to consumers through wine club memberships; wineries' tasting rooms; and through its website, third-party websites, direct phone calls, and other online sales. The company was formerly known as Leucadia Cellars, Ltd. and changed its name to Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. in November 2007. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Napa, California.
Stock analysis
Crimson Wine (CWGL) currently trades at $4.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8000, implying the stock looks roughly 461.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $6.08 per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the $4.49 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.3300, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.7000 (bear) to $0.9900 (bull), the price of $4.49 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Crimson Wine reported revenue of $65.1M in FY2025 versus $68.9M in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was $613K in FY2025, compounding −33.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $92.4M · P/E ratio 89.8 · P/S ratio 0.85 · EPS (TTM) $0.0500 · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4% · Operating margin −3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at −82%, CWGL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.3300 to $6.08). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $0.7000Fair Value $0.8000Bull $0.9900
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0366 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.20/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.7% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−3.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−27% vs −18%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → −2%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 98 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Crimson Wine Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CWGL
Frequently asked questions
Is Crimson Wine (CWGL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.8000 versus a price of $4.49, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CWGL?
Our model-based fair value for Crimson Wine is $0.8000 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.49.
What is the quality score of CWGL?
Crimson Wine has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.8000 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7000, optimistic scenario $0.9900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Crimson Wine stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.8000, about −82% upside versus a price of $4.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.7000, optimistic scenario $0.9900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
Crimson Wine reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $68.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Crimson Wine it is $0.8000 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $4.49. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Crimson Wine stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CWGL trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.49, fair value $0.8000, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CWGL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.8000). For Crimson Wine the two are $3.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Crimson Wine worth?
The market values Crimson Wine at about $92.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $4.49; our models calculate a fair value of $0.8000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CWGL?
Our models span a range for Crimson Wine: cautious scenario $0.7000, base $0.8000, optimistic $0.9900 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $4.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CWGL?
Crimson Wine trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 89.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.8000 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 49.9 (reported 149.7). Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 33.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Crimson Wine (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 0.5%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CWGL from its 52-week high?
Crimson Wine trades at $4.49, about 15% below its 52-week high of $5.31 and 15% above the low of $3.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.8000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Crimson Wine?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Luzhou Laojiao Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Crimson Wine stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $4.49, calculated fair value $0.8000 (−82%), Quality Score 54/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CWGL calculated?
We run Crimson Wine through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.8000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Crimson Wine itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $4.49. Our model-based fair value is $0.8000, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Crimson Wine right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.9900). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Crimson Wine (CWGL) come from?
Earnings per share at Crimson Wine grew −11.5 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.0 %, EBIT margin −17.6 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Crimson Wine
How large is the market capitalisation of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
The market capitalisation of Crimson Wine is $92.4M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Crimson Wine is 0.85 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
Earnings per share at Crimson Wine are $0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 89.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
The net margin of Crimson Wine is 0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Crimson Wine is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Crimson Wine is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
The operating margin of Crimson Wine is −3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
Revenue at Crimson Wine is growing +26.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
Earnings per share at Crimson Wine are growing −40.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Crimson Wine (CWGL) generate?
The free cash flow of Crimson Wine is −$2.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Crimson Wine (CWGL) hold?
Crimson Wine holds more cash than debt, $4.5M net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026