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Crimson Wine (CWGL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Crimson Wine stock $0.80, price $3.90, that is 79.5% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Defensive US

CW Crimson Wine logo Some data Nov 4, 2026

Crimson Wine

CWGL · US
Very expensive, in a downtrend

Our calculation puts a fair price 79% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Revenue last quarter +20% vs. a year ago.
Quality 53/100
Thin margins · 1.0% net margin (TTM) · excl. goodwill write-downs +2.7%
Insiders bought $34,300 (6M)
Some data
Fair value $0.8000 · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.3 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 19/100 · thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$9.55 $3.90 Fair Value $0.8000 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.90 – $9.55 · fair‑value band $0.7000 – $0.9900 · the $3.90 price screens above the $0.8000 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Crimson Wine Group, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, produces and sells luxury wines in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Wholesale and Direct to Consumer.

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It also involved in selling of bulk wines and grapes and other non-wine retail sales, such as merchandise; and provision of custom winemaking, special event, and tasting services.

The company sells its products under the Pine Ridge Vineyards, Archery Summit, Chamisal Vineyards, Seghesio Family Vineyards, Double Canyon, Seven Hills Winery, and Malene Wines brands.

It offers wines to distributors; directly to consumers through wine club memberships; wineries' tasting rooms; and through its website, third-party websites, direct phone calls, and other online sales.

The company was formerly known as Leucadia Cellars, Ltd. and changed its name to Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. in November 2007. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Napa, California.

Stock analysis

Crimson Wine (CWGL) currently trades at $3.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8000, 79% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $5.16 per share, and 4 of the 9 models we run sit above the $3.90 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.3300, and 5 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $0.7000 (bear) to $0.9900 (bull), the price of $3.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

Crimson Wine reported revenue of $65.1M in FY2025 versus $68.9M in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was $613K in FY2025, compounding −33.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $80.3M Micro · P/E ratio 97.5 · P/S ratio 1.11 · EPS (TTM) $0.0400 · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 0.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 0.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 19 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −79%, CWGL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.3300 to $7.07). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $0.7000 Fair Value $0.8000 Bull $0.9900
Price $3.90 · Downside -79.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0343 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings $0.7000 $0.8000 $0.9900 78
Residual Income $4.74 $5.16 $5.71 71
Graham-Dodd $0.2000 $0.3300 $0.3900 67
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $0.7000 $0.8000 $0.9900 78
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.2000 $0.3300 $0.3900 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.4700 $0.6300 $0.7800 63
P/S Multiple $0.3800 $0.5100 $0.6300 58
P/B Multiple $5.30 $7.07 $8.83 55
EV/EBITDA $3.38 $4.43 $5.48 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.58 $3.91 $4.89 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $4.74 $5.16 $5.71 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $0.3300 $0.4700 $0.6200 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 18
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 31
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 68
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 93
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 84
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 30
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 3
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 95
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $34,300, most recently on May 22, 2026. Buying cluster

  • BuyJoseph S SteinbergDirector, 10% owner2× since Nov 20, 2025: 113,782 shares, avg. $4.90$557,557May 22, 2026
  • BuyNicolas Michel Eric QuilleChief Winemaking & COO2× since Nov 14, 2025: 1,500 shares, avg. $4.35$6,530May 21, 2026
  • BuyJohn D. CummingDirector, 10% owner106,308 shares at $4.96$527,288Nov 20, 2025
  • BuyColby A. RollinsDirector900 shares at $4.86$4,374Nov 19, 2025

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 20/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.7% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−3.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−26.5% vs −17.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → −2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

CWGL screens overvalued: fair value 79% below the price. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 90 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −79.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 0.4% · Below median
Return on assets 0.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 1.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 0.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 20.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.08× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 97.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.43× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 1.11× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 24.3× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 3
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)2 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 52

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 ¥81.17 ¥154.52 +90% vs CWGL
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co 000596 ¥105.01 ¥182.41 +74% vs CWGL
Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 0.4350 SGD 0.7200 SGD +66% vs CWGL
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 ¥132.00 ¥209.69 +59% vs CWGL
Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 ¥1,453 ¥1,653 +14% vs CWGL
Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 ¥75.34 ¥83.40 +11% vs CWGL
Pernod Ricard SA RI €71.14 €56.13 −21% vs CWGL
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 ¥37.86 ¥24.22 −36% vs CWGL
Radico Khaitan Limited RADICO ₹4,515 ₹1,705 −62% vs CWGL
United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR ₹1,418 ₹381.82 −73% vs CWGL

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Crimson Wine: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Crimson Wine Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CWGL

Frequently asked questions

Is Crimson Wine (CWGL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.8000 versus a price of $3.90, about 79% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CWGL?
Our model-based fair value for Crimson Wine is $0.8000 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.90.
What is the quality score of CWGL?
Crimson Wine has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.8000 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7000, optimistic scenario $0.9900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Crimson Wine stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.8000, about 79% lower versus a price of $3.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.7000, optimistic scenario $0.9900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
Crimson Wine reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $72.4M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Crimson Wine it is $0.8000 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $3.90. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Crimson Wine stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, CWGL trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.90, fair value $0.8000, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CWGL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.8000). For Crimson Wine the two are $3.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Crimson Wine worth?
The market values Crimson Wine at about $80.3M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $3.90; our models calculate a fair value of $0.8000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CWGL?
Our models span a range for Crimson Wine: cautious scenario $0.7000, base $0.8000, optimistic $0.9900 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $3.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CWGL?
Crimson Wine trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 97.5 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.8000 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 43.3 (reported for FY2025: 130.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 61.7. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 24.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Crimson Wine (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 0.4%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CWGL from its 52-week high?
Crimson Wine trades at $3.90, about 25% below its 52-week high of $5.22 and at the low of $3.90 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.8000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Crimson Wine?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Crimson Wine stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $3.90, calculated fair value $0.8000 (−79%), Quality Score 53/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CWGL calculated?
We run Crimson Wine through 9 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $0.8000 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Crimson Wine itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $3.90. Our model-based fair value is $0.8000, about 79% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Crimson Wine right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.9900). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Crimson Wine (CWGL) come from?
Earnings per share at Crimson Wine grew −11.5 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.0 %, EBIT margin −17.6 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Crimson Wine

How large is the market capitalisation of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
The market capitalisation of Crimson Wine is $80.3M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Crimson Wine is 1.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
Earnings per share at Crimson Wine are $0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 97.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
The net margin of Crimson Wine is 1.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Crimson Wine is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Crimson Wine is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
The operating margin of Crimson Wine is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
Revenue at Crimson Wine is growing +20.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Crimson Wine (CWGL)?
Earnings per share at Crimson Wine are growing −40.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Crimson Wine (CWGL) generate?
The free cash flow of Crimson Wine is −$2.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Crimson Wine (CWGL) hold?
Crimson Wine holds more cash than debt, $4.5M net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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