Crimson Wine Group (CWGL) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $88.1M

A solid business, but screening 84% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.7800). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.90 – $9.76 · fair‑value band $0.4700 – $0.7800 · the $3.90 price screens above the $0.6300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

Crimson Wine Group (CWGL) currently trades at $3.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6300, implying the stock looks roughly 83.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Crimson Wine Group generated revenue of $68.9M at a net margin of 1.3%. Revenue grew 26.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $4.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.4700 (bear case) to $0.7800 (bull case); at $3.90, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at -84%, CWGL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($6.08) versus Earnings-Based ($0.3300). Highest evidence: Growth-Adj P/E (68).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Crimson Wine Group, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, produces and sells luxury wines in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Wholesale and Direct to Consumer. It also involved in selling of bulk wines and grapes and other non-wine retail sales, such as merchandise; and provision of custom winemaking, special event, and tasting services.

Full company description

Crimson Wine Group, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, produces and sells luxury wines in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Wholesale and Direct to Consumer. It also involved in selling of bulk wines and grapes and other non-wine retail sales, such as merchandise; and provision of custom winemaking, special event, and tasting services. The company sells its products under the Pine Ridge Vineyards, Archery Summit, Chamisal Vineyards, Seghesio Family Vineyards, Double Canyon, Seven Hills Winery, and Malene Wines brands. It offers wines to distributors; directly to consumers through wine club memberships; wineries' tasting rooms; and through its website, third-party websites, direct phone calls, and other online sales. The company was formerly known as Leucadia Cellars, Ltd. and changed its name to Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. in November 2007. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Napa, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Crimson Wine Group reported revenue of $65.1M in FY2025 versus $68.9M in FY2021, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was $613K in FY2025, compounding −33.7%/yr from FY2021.

CWGL screens 84% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →

Peer Group

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.