Dropbox, Inc (DBX) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $6.9B
Dropbox, Inc
DBX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $50.52 to $29.27 (−42.1%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +20.7% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 88/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- A fairly wide model range ($19.15 to $39.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.97 – $35.00 · fair‑value band $19.15 – $39.38 · the $34.81 price screens above the $29.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Dropbox, Inc (DBX) currently trades at $34.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.27, implying the stock looks roughly 15.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 88/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Dropbox, Inc generated revenue of $2.5B at a net margin of 18.7%. Revenue grew 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.8%. Net debt stands at $3.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $19.15 (bear case) to $39.38 (bull case); at $34.81, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -16%, DBX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($74.36) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 85 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Dropbox, Inc. provides a content collaboration platform in the United States and internationally. The company's platform enables individuals, families, teams, and organizations to collaborate for free through its website or app, or through a paid subscription plan for premium features.
Full company description
Dropbox, Inc. provides a content collaboration platform in the United States and internationally. The company's platform enables individuals, families, teams, and organizations to collaborate for free through its website or app, or through a paid subscription plan for premium features. Its platform consists of various elements, such as unified home for content, global sharing network, and product experiences and integrations. The company serves customers in the professional services, technology, media, education, industrial, consumer and retail, and financial services industries. The company was formerly known as Evenflow, Inc. and changed its name to Dropbox, Inc. in October 2009. Dropbox, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Dropbox, Inc reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $2.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was $508M in FY2025, compounding +10.9%/yr from FY2021.
DBX screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Dropbox Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Core FSS, 2026 Outlook Raised
- Dropbox Shares Decline Despite Earnings Beat as Revenue Growth Disappoints
- Dropbox expects $2.513B-$2.523B 2026 revenue while raising operating margin guidance to 40.0%-40.5%
- Dropbox (DBX) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 368 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
Compare Dropbox, Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Technology stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Dropbox, Inc (DBX) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of DBX?
What is the quality score of DBX?
What is the revenue of Dropbox, Inc (DBX)?
What is the net profit margin of DBX?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Dropbox, Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.