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Deere (DEER) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Deere C$9.80, price C$34.99, upside -72.0%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · CA · Home US

D Some data Sep 28, 2026

Deere

DEER · NEO

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value C$9.80 · Strongly overvalued (−72.0%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −4.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 11.0% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓18.5% dividend yield · Well covered
!Mixed vs. peers (6/11)
!Moderate moat 63/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on balance sheet: 16 out of 100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

C$36.10 C$17.98 Fair Value C$9.80 Feb 2024 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

32‑month range C$17.98 – C$36.10 · fair‑value band C$6.28 – C$16.79 · the C$34.99 price screens above the C$9.80 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services.

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Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides four-wheel-drive track and row crop tractors, harvesters, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters and loaders, soil preparation, tillage, seeding, and crop care equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, soil preparation machinery, and related attachments and service parts. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment offers specialty, utility, and compact tractors; self-propelled forage harvesters and attachments; rotary mowers, hay and forage equipment, and utility vehicles; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn, commercial mowing, and golf course equipment, and utility vehicles, as well as implements for mowing, tilling, snow and debris handling, aerating, residential, commercial, golf, and sports turf care applications. The Construction and Forestry segment provides backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders, four-wheel-drive loaders, excavators, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, skid-steer loaders, milling machines, recyclers, slipform and asphalt pavers, surface miners, compactors, tandem, static rollers, mobile crushers and screens, mobile and stationary asphalt plants, and log harvesters; and road building and rehabilitation equipment. The Financial Services segment finances sales and leases agriculture and turf, and construction and forestry equipment. It also offers wholesale financing to dealers of the foregoing equipment; and extended equipment warranties, as well as finances retail revolving charge accounts. The company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Moline, Illinois.

Stock analysis

Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) (DEER) currently trades at C$34.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$9.80, 72.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of C$17.51 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the C$34.99 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$3.56, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: C$6.28 (bear) to C$16.79 (bull), the price of C$34.99 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) reported revenue of $44.7B in FY2025 versus $51.3B in FY2022, a compound −4.5%/yr. Reported net income was $5.0B in FY2025, compounding −11.0%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap C$222B (≈ $156B) · P/E ratio 30.2 · P/S ratio 3.40 · EPS (TTM) C$0.9900 · Net margin 11.3% · Return on equity 20.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.7% · Operating margin 12.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −72%, DEER screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$6.28 Fair Value C$9.80 Bull C$16.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income C$6.33 C$7.46 C$10.01 73
FCF DCF C$4.19 C$8.68 C$16.98 72
Growth DCF C$4.73 C$9.08 C$16.52 72
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF C$4.19 C$8.68 C$16.98 72
Owner Earnings C$3.79 C$8.11 C$16.13 68
5Y Revenue Exit C$1.51 C$4.98 C$10.01 64
5Y EBITDA Exit C$7.50 C$15.36 C$25.76 69
5Y P/E Exit C$6.11 C$12.96 C$21.13 65
10Y Revenue Exit C$2.27 C$4.95 C$7.78 62
10Y EBITDA Exit C$6.11 C$11.37 C$17.03 64
10Y P/E Exit C$5.27 C$9.89 C$14.31 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd C$7.00 C$8.56 C$9.63 65
EPV C$5.75 C$7.91 C$9.80 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple C$17.00 C$22.66 C$28.33 63
P/S Multiple C$8.24 C$10.98 C$13.73 58
P/B Multiple C$13.13 C$17.51 C$21.89 55
EV/EBIT C$16.05 C$23.82 C$31.58 65
EV/EBITDA C$12.40 C$18.95 C$25.49 66
EV/Revenue C$0.4600 C$3.76 C$7.05 47
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$2.66 C$3.56 C$5.32 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF C$4.73 C$9.08 C$16.52 72
Rev-Margin DCF C$1.51 C$5.25 C$9.89 64
Economic Profit
Residual Income C$6.33 C$7.46 C$10.01 73
ROIC Compounder C$5.75 C$8.24 C$11.00 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E C$11.98 C$17.12 C$22.25 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 21
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 46
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 87
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 93
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 19%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.6% a year for the price and +1.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−10.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+9.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+8.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.7%

DEER screens overvalued: fair value 72% below the price. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 144 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −71.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 20.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 11.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 12.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 12.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 18.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.68× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 30.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.65× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)63 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)82 · sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)16 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 42

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Caterpillar Inc CAT $810.79 $308.45 −62%
Deere & Company DE $671.55 $258.17 −62%
PACCAR Inc PCAR $109.81 $120.79 +10%
Daimler Truck Holding DTG €42.54 €50.36 +18%
Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 ¥17.20 ¥20.84 +21%
CNH Industrial N.V CNH $13.06 $8.65 −34%
Traton SE 8TRA €34.04 €32.82 −4%
Metso Oyj METSO €17.08 €18.79 +10%
XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 ¥7.17 ¥14.52 +103%
Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 HK$35.30 HK$56.32 +60%

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Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) · Fair Value
C$9.80 −72%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DEER

Frequently asked questions

Is Deere (DEER) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$9.80 versus a price of C$34.99, about −72% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DEER?
Our model-based fair value for Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) is C$9.80 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$34.99.
What is the quality score of DEER?
Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Deere (DEER)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$9.80 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$6.28, optimistic scenario C$16.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$9.80, about −72% upside versus a price of C$34.99 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$6.28, optimistic scenario C$16.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Deere (DEER)?
Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $45.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Deere (DEER)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) would have to grow free cash flow by +7.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew -4.5 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DEER use?
Our models discount Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.01, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) that is +7.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Deere (DEER) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) grew -4.5 % a year. The price currently implies +7.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Deere (DEER) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) (+7.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Deere (DEER)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 48.65 %: that much free cash flow Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Deere (DEER)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) it is C$9.80 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of C$34.99. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, DEER trades above its calculated fair value: price C$34.99, fair value C$9.80, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DEER?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$34.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$9.80). For Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) the two are C$25.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) worth?
The market values Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) at about C$222B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is C$34.99; our models calculate a fair value of C$9.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DEER?
Our models span a range for Deere CDR (CAD Hedged): cautious scenario C$6.28, base C$9.80, optimistic C$16.79 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price C$34.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DEER?
Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.2 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$9.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6.
What is the PEG ratio of DEER?
The PEG ratio of Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) is 1.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Deere (DEER)?
Balance-sheet figures for Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 20.4%, debt of 1.68 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DEER from its 52-week high?
Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) trades at C$34.99, about 3% below its 52-week high of C$36.10 and 51% above the low of C$23.11 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$9.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Deere CDR (CAD Hedged)?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price C$34.99, calculated fair value C$9.80 (−72%), Quality Score 51/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DEER calculated?
We run Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$9.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Deere (DEER)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was C$34.99. Our model-based fair value is C$9.80, about −72% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$16.79). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (C$6.28 to C$16.79). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Deere CDR (CAD Hedged)

How large is the market capitalisation of Deere (DEER)?
The market capitalisation of Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) is C$222B (≈ $156B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Deere (DEER)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) is 3.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Deere (DEER)?
Earnings per share at Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) are C$0.9900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Deere (DEER)?
The net margin of Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) is 11.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Deere (DEER)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) is 20.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Deere (DEER)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) is 10.7% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Deere (DEER)?
The operating margin of Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Deere (DEER)?
Revenue at Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) is growing +12.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Deere (DEER)?
Earnings per share at Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) are growing −13.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Deere (DEER) carry?
The net debt of Deere CDR (CAD Hedged) is $55.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 17.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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