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Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Deutsche Lufthansa AG $10.99, price $8.64, upside +27.2%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · ADR · Home Germany · ISIN US2515613048

Broad data Oct 3, 2026

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

DLAKY · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $10.99 · Undervalued (+27.2%)

!Quality 46/100

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +23.8 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 3.9% net margin (TTM)

!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow

!3.8% dividend yield · Watch coverage

✓Ranks above peers (10/14)

!Narrow moat 28/100

26 models, one by oneBear $9.82 to bull $13.96 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 46/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.82 – $11.46 · fair‑value band $9.82 – $13.96 · the $8.64 price screens below the $10.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Deutsche Lufthansa AG operates as an aviation company in Europe, North America, Central and South America, Aisa/Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates in three segments: Passenger Airlines; Logistics; and Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO). The Passenger Airlines segment offers products and services to passengers of Lufthansa Airlines, SWISS, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines, and Eurowings. The Logistics segment provides airfreight container management, time-critical shipments, and customs clearance services; and digital and modular logistics solutions for cross-border e-commerce solutions. The MRO segment provides maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for civil commercial aircraft serving original equipment manufacturers, aircraft leasing companies, VIP jet operators, government, armed forces, and airlines. It also sells flight tickets and related ancillary services through agents, its own websites, or other airlines; offers vocational and professional training for cockpit and cabin crew; and IT solutions. The company operates a fleet of 737 aircraft. Deutsche Lufthansa AG was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Cologne, Germany.

Stock analysis

Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR (DLAKY) currently trades at $8.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.99, implying the stock looks roughly 21.4% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $22.19 per share, and 9 of the 15 models we run sit above the $8.64 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.91, and 6 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $9.82 (bear) to $13.96 (bull), the price of $8.64 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR reported revenue of €39.6B in FY2025 versus €16.8B in FY2021, a compound +23.9%/yr. Reported net income was €1.3B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $12.5B · P/E ratio 5.7 · P/S ratio 0.19 · EPS (TTM) $1.51 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 3.4% · Return on equity 13.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 27%, DLAKY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $9.82 Fair Value $10.99 Bull $13.96

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8923 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income $10.09 $11.57 $15.24 76

EPV $4.46 $6.48 $8.25 73

ROIC Compounder $4.46 $6.48 $8.25 72

All 15 models by family

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $8.55 $22.69 $29.65 65

PEG = 1.0 $4.38 $6.26 $8.14 57

EPV $4.46 $6.48 $8.25 73

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $3.17 $6.57 $10.46 66

DDM Multi-Stage $3.17 $4.91 $6.77 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple $19.80 $26.40 $32.99 63

P/S Multiple $16.03 $21.37 $26.71 58

P/B Multiple $16.03 $21.37 $26.71 55

EV/EBIT $11.51 $17.89 $24.27 65

EV/EBITDA $30.07 $42.64 $55.20 67

EV/Revenue $6.03 $11.88 $17.74 51

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $5.50 $7.37 $10.99 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income $10.09 $11.57 $15.24 76

ROIC Compounder $4.46 $6.48 $8.25 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $15.54 $22.19 $28.85 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 36

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 58

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 39

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 22

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 58

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 44

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 34

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 33

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 81

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 1 year

+5.4%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+6.5%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+23.8%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.3% a year

Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+4.0%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

−11.3%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−15.1%

Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−40% → 4%

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 13.6%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (82 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative

Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.

Deutsche Lufthansa AG: Release according to Article 40 (1) of the WpHG (the German Securities Trading Act) with the objective of Europe-wide Yahoo Finance · Sep 9, 2026
Deutsche Lufthansa AG: Dieter Vranckx, Acquisition Yahoo Finance · Sep 3, 2026
Does Hidden Value In Lufthansa Technik And Delvag Strengthen Deutsche Lufthansa’s Risk Profile (XTRA:LHA)? Yahoo Finance · Aug 27, 2026

Compare Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 53 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 46 · Above median

Fair Value upside +30.3% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 13.7% · Above median

Return on assets 2.1% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 3.9% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) −11.0% · Bottom 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 7.6% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 3.8% · Above median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.79× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.7× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 0.95× · Cheapest 25%

P/S (TTM) 0.28× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 5.4× · Cheaper than median

PEG 0.85× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)74 · sector 50

FUTURE (revenue growth)38 · sector 73

PAST (return on equity)55 · sector 47

HEALTH (low debt)60 · sector 67

DIVIDEND (yield)76 · sector 49

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL	$84.13	$121.83	+45%
United Airlines Holdings UAL	$111.51	$149.61	+34%
Ryanair Holdings RYA	€23.79	€48.63	+104%
Southwest Airlines Co LUV	$42.28	$14.74	−65%
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO	₹4,940	₹3,073	−38%
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L	6.65 SGD	7.88 SGD	+18%
LATAM Airlines Group LTM	$52.45	$106.79	+104%
China Southern Airlines Company 600029	¥4.86	¥2.78	−43%
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited 0293	HK$14.37	HK$31.02	+116%
Qantas Airways Limited QAN	A$8.93	A$9.69	+9%

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR · Fair Value
$10.99 +21%Fair Value
Calculator →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DLAKY

Frequently asked questions

Is Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.99 versus a price of $8.64, about +27% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of DLAKY?

Our model-based fair value for Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR is $10.99 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.64.

What is the quality score of DLAKY?

Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.99 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.82, optimistic scenario $13.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $10.99, about +27% upside versus a price of $8.64 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.82, optimistic scenario $13.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY)?

Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €40.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).

Does Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR pay a dividend?

Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.82% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR it is $10.99 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $8.64. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Oct 3, 2026, DLAKY trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.64, fair value $10.99, a gap of about +27% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of DLAKY?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.99). For Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR the two are $2.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR worth?

The market values Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR at about $12.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $8.64; our models calculate a fair value of $10.99 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DLAKY?

Our models span a range for Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR: cautious scenario $9.82, base $10.99, optimistic $13.96 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $8.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of DLAKY?

Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.7 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 1.0, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 5.4.

What is the PEG ratio of DLAKY?

The PEG ratio of Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR is 0.85 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.

How solid is the balance sheet of Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY)?

Balance-sheet figures for Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 13.7%, debt of 0.79 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is DLAKY from its 52-week high?

Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR trades at $8.64, about 25% below its 52-week high of $11.46 and 13% above the low of $7.64 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.99 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR?

From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $8.64, calculated fair value $10.99 (+27%), Quality Score 46/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of DLAKY calculated?

We run Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR currently trades 21 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY)?

The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $8.64. Our model-based fair value is $10.99, about +27% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR right now?

The price is below even our cautious bear case ($9.82). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY)?

The market capitalisation of Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR is $12.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR is 0.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY)?

Earnings per share at Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR are $1.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY)?

The dividend yield of Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR is 3.8% (payout 21.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY)?

The net margin of Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR is 3.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY)?

The operating margin of Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR is −11.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY)?

Revenue at Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR is growing +7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY)?

Earnings per share at Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR are growing −55.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY) generate?

The free cash flow of Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR is −€438M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Deutsche Lufthansa AG (DLAKY) carry?

The net debt of Deutsche Lufthansa AG ADR is €9.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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