Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Dollar Tree, Inc. BRL 269, price BRL 303, upside -11.4%, quality 78 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$177.33 – R$473.29 · fair‑value band R$175.24 – R$386.86 · the R$303.49 price screens above the R$268.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Dollar Tree, Inc. operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada.
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Dollar Tree, Inc. operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. The company offers consumable merchandise comprising everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, food, candy, health, personal care products, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise consisting of toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods, including Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34) currently trades at R$303.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$268.78, 11.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$317.20 per share, and 8 of the 23 models we run sit above the R$303.49 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$34.18, and 15 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$175.24 (bear) to R$386.86 (bull), the price of R$303.49 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Dollar Tree, Inc. reported revenue of $19.4B in FY2026 versus $26.3B in FY2022, a compound −7.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2026, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap R$124B (≈ $23.7B) · P/E ratio 18.8 · P/S ratio 1.24 · EPS (TTM) R$16.13 · Net margin 6.6% · Return on equity 34.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2% · Operating margin 9.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −11%, DLTR34 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$175.24Fair Value R$268.78Bull R$386.86
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$10.83 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 9%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.0% a year for the price and +3.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Discount Stores · 25 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+12.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)34.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)9.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.65× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dollar Tree, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DLTR34
Frequently asked questions
Is Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$268.78 versus a price of R$303.49, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DLTR34?
Our model-based fair value for Dollar Tree, Inc. is R$268.78 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$303.49.
What is the quality score of DLTR34?
Dollar Tree, Inc. has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$268.78 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$175.24, optimistic scenario R$386.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dollar Tree, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$268.78, about −11% upside versus a price of R$303.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$175.24, optimistic scenario R$386.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34)?
Dollar Tree, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Dollar Tree, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +0.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -7.3 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DLTR34 use?
Our models discount Dollar Tree, Inc. at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.65, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Dollar Tree, Inc. that is +0.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Dollar Tree, Inc. grew -7.3 % a year. The price currently implies +0.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Dollar Tree, Inc. (+0.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.14 %: that much free cash flow Dollar Tree, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dollar Tree, Inc. it is R$268.78 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$303.49. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dollar Tree, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, DLTR34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$303.49, fair value R$268.78, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DLTR34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$303.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$268.78). For Dollar Tree, Inc. the two are R$34.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dollar Tree, Inc. worth?
The market values Dollar Tree, Inc. at about R$124B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$303.49; our models calculate a fair value of R$268.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DLTR34?
Our models span a range for Dollar Tree, Inc.: cautious scenario R$175.24, base R$268.78, optimistic R$386.86 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$303.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DLTR34?
Dollar Tree, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$268.78 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 6.3, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 10.6.
What is the PEG ratio of DLTR34?
The PEG ratio of Dollar Tree, Inc. is 1.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dollar Tree, Inc. (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 34.0%, debt of 0.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DLTR34 from its 52-week high?
Dollar Tree, Inc. trades at R$303.49, about 14% below its 52-week high of R$352.15 and 31% above the low of R$231.84 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$268.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dollar Tree, Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Walmart Inc, Costco Wholesale Corporation, Target Corporation, Dollarama Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dollar Tree, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$303.49, calculated fair value R$268.78 (−11%), Quality Score 78/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DLTR34 calculated?
We run Dollar Tree, Inc. through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$268.78, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Dollar Tree, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$303.49. Our model-based fair value is R$268.78, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dollar Tree, Inc. right now?
A fairly wide model range (R$175.24 to R$386.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Dollar Tree, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34)?
The market capitalisation of Dollar Tree, Inc. is R$124B (≈ $23.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dollar Tree, Inc. is 1.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34)?
Earnings per share at Dollar Tree, Inc. are R$16.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34)?
The net margin of Dollar Tree, Inc. is 6.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dollar Tree, Inc. is 34.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dollar Tree, Inc. is 9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34)?
The operating margin of Dollar Tree, Inc. is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34)?
Revenue at Dollar Tree, Inc. is growing +7.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34)?
Earnings per share at Dollar Tree, Inc. are growing +9.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR34) carry?
The net debt of Dollar Tree, Inc. is $1.7B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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