Target Corporation (TGT) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $63.7B
Target Corporation
TGT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $117.83 to $118.22 (+0.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +15.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 20% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($66.67 to $183.86). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $82.06 – $230.47 · fair‑value band $66.67 – $183.86 · the $147.08 price screens above the $118.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Target Corporation (TGT) currently trades at $147.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $118.22, implying the stock looks roughly 19.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Target Corporation generated revenue of $106B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 6.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.0%. Net debt stands at $14.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $66.67 (bear case) to $183.86 (bull case); at $147.08, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -20%, TGT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($138.68) versus Asset-Based ($23.85). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. It offers apparel for women, men, young adults, kids, toddlers, and babies, as well as jewelry, accessories, and shoes; and beauty products, such as skin and bath care, cosmetics, hair care, oral care, deodorant, and shaving products.
Full company description
Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. It offers apparel for women, men, young adults, kids, toddlers, and babies, as well as jewelry, accessories, and shoes; and beauty products, such as skin and bath care, cosmetics, hair care, oral care, deodorant, and shaving products. The company also provides food and beverage products comprising dry and perishable grocery, including snacks, candy, beverages, deli, bakery, meat, produce, and food service; electronics which includes video games and consoles, toys, sporting goods, entertainment, and luggage; bed and bath, home décor, school/office supplies, storage, small appliances, kitchenware, greeting cards, party supplies, furniture, lighting, home improvement, and seasonal merchandise; and household essentials, such as household cleaning, paper products, over-the-counter healthcare, vitamins and supplements, baby gear, and pet supplies. In addition, it sells merchandise through periodic design and creative partnerships, and shop-in-shop experience; and in-store amenities. The company sells its products through its stores; and digital channels, including Target.com. Target Corporation was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Target Corporation reported revenue of $105B in FY2026 versus $106B in FY2022, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was $3.7B in FY2026, compounding −14.5%/yr from FY2022.
TGT screens 20% overvalued. Compare with Walmart Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Target & 3 More Discount Retail Stocks Investors Should Buy in H2 2026
- Why Target (TGT) is a Top Dividend Stock for Your Portfolio
- TGT or TJX: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
Peer Group
Discount Stores · 25 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Discount Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart Inc WMT | $113.90 | $48.65 | -57% |
| Costco Wholesale Corporation COST | $916.25 | $383.51 | -58% |
| Wal-Mart de México, S.A. WALMEX | 49.49 MXN | 60.59 MXN | +22% |
| Dollarama Inc DOL | C$188.95 | C$92.38 | -51% |
| Avenue Supermarts Limited DMART | ₹4,081 | ₹1,066 | -74% |
| Dollar General Corporation DG | $125.75 | $116.55 | -7% |
| Dollar Tree, Inc DLTR | $124.91 | $125.92 | +1% |
| BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings BJ | $90.24 | $80.99 | -10% |
| Pepco Group PCO | 40.64 PLN | 54.90 PLN | +35% |
| PriceSmart, Inc PSMT | $189.05 | $98.60 | -48% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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