Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $406B
Costco Wholesale Corporation
COST · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +0.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 60% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($479.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($263.91 to $479.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $352.62 – $1,094 · fair‑value band $263.91 – $479.39 · the $949.15 price screens above the $383.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) currently trades at $949.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $383.51, implying the stock looks roughly 59.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Costco Wholesale Corporation generated revenue of $294B at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue grew 21.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $6.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $263.91 (bear case) to $479.39 (bull case); at $949.15, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -60%, COST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($418.68) versus Asset-Based ($44.06). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden.
Full company description
Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden. It offers merchandise, including sundries, dry groceries, candies, coolers, freezers, deli, liquor, and tobacco; non-food merchandise comprising appliances, small electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, lawn and garden, sporting goods, tires, toys and seasonal, automotive, stamps, tickets, apparel, furniture, domestics, housewares, special order kiosks, and jewelry; and fresh food, such as meat, produce, service deli, and bakery products. The company is also involved in warehouse ancillary operations, which include gasoline, pharmacies, optical, food courts, hearing-aid centers, and tire installation centers. In addition, it engages in e-commerce, business centers, travel, and other businesses. The company was formerly known as Costco Companies, Inc. and changed its name to Costco Wholesale Corporation in August 1999. Costco Wholesale Corporation was founded in 1976 and is based in Issaquah, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Costco Wholesale Corporation reported revenue of $275B in FY2025 versus $196B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was $8.1B in FY2025, compounding +12.8%/yr from FY2021.
COST screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Walmart Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Costco (COST) Pushes Further Into GLP 1 Weight Loss Prescriptions
- Costco keeps its gas super cheap for a very specific reason — and it could cost you every time you fill up
Peer Group
Discount Stores · 25 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Discount Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart Inc WMT | $113.90 | $48.65 | -57% |
| Target Corporation TGT | $139.60 | $118.22 | -15% |
| Wal-Mart de México, S.A. WALMEX | 49.49 MXN | 60.59 MXN | +22% |
| Dollarama Inc DOL | C$188.95 | C$92.38 | -51% |
| Avenue Supermarts Limited DMART | ₹4,081 | ₹1,066 | -74% |
| Dollar General Corporation DG | $125.75 | $116.55 | -7% |
| Dollar Tree, Inc DLTR | $124.91 | $125.92 | +1% |
| BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings BJ | $90.24 | $80.99 | -10% |
| Pepco Group PCO | 40.64 PLN | 54.90 PLN | +35% |
| PriceSmart, Inc PSMT | $189.05 | $98.60 | -48% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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