Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Costco Wholesale Corp is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
- Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
- Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
- Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
At a glance
Costco Wholesale Corp
COST · US
A solid business, but trading 139% above our fair value of $383.51.
As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Costco Wholesale Corp is $383.51 per share against a price of $915.74, so the fair value sits 58% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −2.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($479.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($260.26 to $479.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $359.45 – $1,094 · fair‑value band $260.26 – $479.39 · the $915.74 price screens above the $383.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.
Analysis
Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) currently trades at $915.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $383.51, implying the stock looks roughly 138.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $422.85 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $915.74 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $44.06, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Costco Wholesale Corp generated revenue of $294B at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue grew 21.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $6.0B. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026
Scenario range: $260.26 (bear) to $479.39 (bull), the price of $915.74 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −58%, COST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($14.47 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($422.85) versus Asset-Based ($44.06). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
Notify me when COST reaches fair value
Put COST on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden.
Full company description
Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden. It offers merchandise, including sundries, dry groceries, candies, coolers, freezers, deli, liquor, and tobacco; non-food merchandise comprising appliances, small electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, lawn and garden, sporting goods, tires, toys and seasonal, automotive, stamps, tickets, apparel, furniture, domestics, housewares, special order kiosks, and jewelry; and fresh food, such as meat, produce, service deli, and bakery products. The company is also involved in warehouse ancillary operations, which include gasoline, pharmacies, optical, food courts, hearing-aid centers, and tire installation centers. In addition, it engages in e-commerce, business centers, travel, and other businesses. The company was formerly known as Costco Companies, Inc. and changed its name to Costco Wholesale Corporation in August 1999. Costco Wholesale Corporation was founded in 1976 and is based in Issaquah, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Costco Wholesale Corp reported revenue of $275B in FY2025 versus $196B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was $8.1B in FY2025, compounding +12.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.3 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
COST screens 139% overvalued. Compare with Walmart Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Costco Slips 1%--Then Drops a 17.9% Digital Surprise
- Costco's August Sales Rise 9.9% as Digital Growth Stays Strong
- Trump's DOJ Expands Beef Price Probe to Walmart, Costco, Amazon and 5 Other Retail Giants — Calls it a 'Critical Concern'
Peer Group
Discount Stores · 24 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Costco Wholesale Corp deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Discount Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart Inc WMT | $103.09 | $47.80 | −54% |
| Target Corporation TGT | $163.18 | $116.90 | −28% |
| Dollarama Inc DOL | C$192.85 | C$92.38 | −52% |
| Avenue Supermarts Limited DMART | ₹3,827 | ₹921.40 | −76% |
| Dollar General Corporation DG | $120.08 | $116.55 | −3% |
| Dollar Tree, Inc DLTR | $128.26 | $125.92 | −2% |
| 540376 540376 | ₹4,054 | ₹1,542 | −62% |
| BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings BJ | $93.19 | $80.26 | −14% |
| Pepco Group PCO | 43.20 PLN | 54.81 PLN | +27% |
| PriceSmart, Inc PSMT | $173.72 | $98.60 | −43% |
Compare Costco Wholesale Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Defensive stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of COST?
What is the quality score of COST?
What is the price target for Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
What is the Costco Wholesale Corp stock forecast for 2026?
What is the revenue of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
What is the net profit margin of COST?
Does Costco Wholesale Corp pay a dividend?
What growth is priced into Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of COST use?
Watch Costco Wholesale Corp in the live analysis
One click puts Costco Wholesale Corp on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.