BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $11.5B
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings
BJ · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +11.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 17% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($46.75 to $118.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.49 – $119.94 · fair‑value band $46.75 – $118.90 · the $97.18 price screens above the $80.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ) currently trades at $97.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $80.99, implying the stock looks roughly 16.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings generated revenue of $22.0B at a net margin of 2.6%. Revenue grew 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.9%. Net debt stands at $2.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $46.75 (bear case) to $118.90 (bull case); at $97.18, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -15% fair-value upside, at -17%, BJ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($83.37) versus Asset-Based ($11.53). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates membership warehouse clubs on the eastern half of the United States. The company offers groceries, fresh food, general merchandise, gasoline, and other ancillary services. It sells its products through its clubs; the BJs.com website; and its mobile app.
Full company description
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates membership warehouse clubs on the eastern half of the United States. The company offers groceries, fresh food, general merchandise, gasoline, and other ancillary services. It sells its products through its clubs; the BJs.com website; and its mobile app. The company was formerly known as Beacon Holding Inc. and changed its name to BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. in February 2018. BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings reported revenue of $21.5B in FY2026 versus $16.7B in FY2022, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $578M in FY2026, compounding +7.9%/yr from FY2022.
BJ screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Walmart Inc →
Peer Group
Discount Stores · 25 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Discount Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart Inc WMT | $113.90 | $48.65 | -57% |
| Costco Wholesale Corporation COST | $916.25 | $383.51 | -58% |
| Target Corporation TGT | $139.60 | $118.22 | -15% |
| Wal-Mart de México, S.A. WALMEX | 49.49 MXN | 60.59 MXN | +22% |
| Dollarama Inc DOL | C$188.95 | C$92.38 | -51% |
| Avenue Supermarts Limited DMART | ₹4,081 | ₹1,066 | -74% |
| Dollar General Corporation DG | $125.75 | $116.55 | -7% |
| Dollar Tree, Inc DLTR | $124.91 | $125.92 | +1% |
| Pepco Group PCO | 40.64 PLN | 54.90 PLN | +35% |
| PriceSmart, Inc PSMT | $189.05 | $98.60 | -48% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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