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Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Dyno Nobel Limited $1.77, price $2.78, upside -36.3%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Dyno Nobel Limited
DNLZY · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $1.77 · Strongly overvalued (−36.3%)
!Quality 52/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +5.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!5.1% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 34/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.21 – $2.95 · fair‑value band $1.08 – $2.22 · the $2.78 price screens above the $1.77 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Dyno Nobel Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes industrial explosives, chemicals, and fertilizers in the United States and Australia. It offers packaged explosives, including Powermite, a cartridge explosive; and Dynosplit for pre-split applications, as well as ammonium nitrates.
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Dyno Nobel Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes industrial explosives, chemicals, and fertilizers in the United States and Australia. It offers packaged explosives, including Powermite, a cartridge explosive; and Dynosplit for pre-split applications, as well as ammonium nitrates. The company also provides initiation systems, such as BlastWeb II, an underground blasting system; CE4 Commander Blasting System and DigiShot Plus.4G, an electronic blasting systems; and electronic detonators, such as DigiShot, DigiShot Plus, DigiShot Plus.4G, and GeoShot for a range of applications, such as surface and underground mining, quarrying, and construction, as well as bulk technologies under TITAN series and software products, such as ViewShot 3D, DIFFERENTIAL ENERGY2, and Nobel Fire. It exports its products. It also provides Dyno Consult and Drill and Blast Academies services; DYNOBULK FLEX, and Portable Modular Emulsion plants. The company was formerly known as Incitec Pivot Limited and changed its name to Dyno Nobel Limited in March 2025. Dyno Nobel Limited was founded in 1831 and is headquartered in Fortitude Valley, Australia.
Stock analysis
Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY) currently trades at $2.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.77, 36.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $3.03 per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the $2.78 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.7300, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.08 (bear) to $2.22 (bull), the price of $2.78 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Dyno Nobel Limited reported revenue of A$3.7B in FY2025 versus A$4.3B in FY2021, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$53.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $5.4B · P/E ratio 27.8 · P/S ratio 1.18 · EPS (TTM) $0.1000 · Dividend yield 5.1% · Net margin −1.4% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −36%, DNLZY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.08
Fair Value $1.77
Bull $2.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.7000
$1.02
$1.57
80
Growth DCF
$0.7300
$1.04
$1.53
78
5Y EBITDA Exit
$1.49
$2.49
$3.76
74
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.7000
$1.02
$1.57
80
5Y Revenue Exit
$1.00
$1.65
$2.56
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$1.49
$2.49
$3.76
74
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.8300
$1.38
$2.01
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.17
$1.92
$2.80
68
Earnings-Based
EPV
$1.34
$1.58
$1.80
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.5700
$0.7300
$0.8900
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.5700
$0.7600
$0.9900
67
Multiples
EV/EBIT
$2.21
$3.03
$3.84
66
EV/EBITDA
$2.34
$3.20
$4.06
67
EV/Revenue
$1.31
$1.97
$2.63
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.8800
$1.18
$1.76
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.7300
$1.04
$1.53
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$1.00
$1.67
$2.45
72
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
$1.34
$1.58
$1.81
72
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
52/100
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Profitability
24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
28
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
80
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
69
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
84
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
85
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
57/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.9% (2020) → 13.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.3% a year for the price and −5.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−3.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−3.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)−2.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)−2.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)−1.4%
DNLZY screens overvalued: fair value 36% below the price. Compare with Linde plc →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 694 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $474.65 | $441.72 | −7% |
| The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW | $330.44 | $151.68 | −54% |
| Ecolab Inc ECL | $274.58 | $96.56 | −65% |
| Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD | $279.19 | $121.30 | −57% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 238.00 TWD | 234.23 TWD | −2% |
| Givaudan SA GIVN | CHF 3,360 | CHF 1,527 | −55% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥69.45 | ¥68.03 | −2% |
| DSM-Firmenich AG DSFIR | CHF 92.30 | CHF 29.70 | −68% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,444 | ₹1,479 | −39% |
| PPG Industries, Inc PPG | $104.67 | $76.98 | −26% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.77 versus a price of $2.78, about −36% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DNLZY?
Our model-based fair value for Dyno Nobel Limited is $1.77 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.78.
What is the quality score of DNLZY?
Dyno Nobel Limited has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.77 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.08, optimistic scenario $2.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dyno Nobel Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.77, about −36% upside versus a price of $2.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.08, optimistic scenario $2.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
Dyno Nobel Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$3.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Dyno Nobel Limited pay a dividend?
Dyno Nobel Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Dyno Nobel Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +34.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DNLZY use?
Our models discount Dyno Nobel Limited at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.41, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Dyno Nobel Limited that is +34.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Dyno Nobel Limited grew -1.2 % a year. The price currently implies +34.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +15.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Dyno Nobel Limited (+34.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.30 %: that much free cash flow Dyno Nobel Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dyno Nobel Limited it is $1.77 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.78. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dyno Nobel Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, DNLZY trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.78, fair value $1.77, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DNLZY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.77). For Dyno Nobel Limited the two are $1.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dyno Nobel Limited worth?
The market values Dyno Nobel Limited at about $5.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.78; our models calculate a fair value of $1.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DNLZY?
Our models span a range for Dyno Nobel Limited: cautious scenario $1.08, base $1.77, optimistic $2.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DNLZY?
Dyno Nobel Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.77 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dyno Nobel Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.8%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DNLZY from its 52-week high?
Dyno Nobel Limited trades at $2.78, about 6% below its 52-week high of $2.95 and 56% above the low of $1.79 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dyno Nobel Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dyno Nobel Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.78, calculated fair value $1.77 (−36%), Quality Score 52/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DNLZY calculated?
We run Dyno Nobel Limited through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Dyno Nobel Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.78. Our model-based fair value is $1.77, about −36% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dyno Nobel Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($1.08 to $2.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Dyno Nobel Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
The market capitalisation of Dyno Nobel Limited is $5.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dyno Nobel Limited is 1.18 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
Earnings per share at Dyno Nobel Limited are $0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
The dividend yield of Dyno Nobel Limited is 5.1% (payout 141%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
The net margin of Dyno Nobel Limited is −1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dyno Nobel Limited is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dyno Nobel Limited is 7.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
The operating margin of Dyno Nobel Limited is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
Revenue at Dyno Nobel Limited is growing +9.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY)?
Earnings per share at Dyno Nobel Limited are growing +220% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Dyno Nobel Limited (DNLZY) carry?
The net debt of Dyno Nobel Limited is A$1.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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