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Dorman Products, Inc (DORM) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.2B

DP Dorman Products, Inc logo Dorman Products, Inc DORM · US
Price$140.91
Fair Value$103.58
Upside-26.5%
Quality62/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 8.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Moderate moat 55/100
Evidence: High Range $48.40 – $179.83 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago

Share price +4.2% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 26% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide ($48.40 to $179.83). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$166.34 $62.18 Fair Value $103.58 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $62.18 – $166.34 · fair‑value band $48.40 – $179.83 · the $140.91 price screens above the $103.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Dorman Products, Inc (DORM) currently trades at $140.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $103.58, implying the stock looks roughly 26.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Dorman Products, Inc generated revenue of $2.2B at a net margin of 8.8%. Revenue grew 4.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.6%. Net debt stands at $584M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $48.40 (bear case) to $179.83 (bull case); at $140.91, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -26%, DORM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $17.79 $36.59 $65.82 80
Residual Income $47.13 $60.43 $169.94 76
Rev-Margin DCF $36.63 $75.06 $122.67 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $17.83 $37.95 $70.10 38
Owner Earnings $75.15 $134.16 $228.48 31
5Y Revenue Exit $36.63 $76.31 $129.85 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $72.64 $148.07 $241.78 41
5Y P/E Exit $65.62 $134.08 $211.00 38
10Y Revenue Exit $27.67 $62.31 $114.40 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $52.57 $112.75 $203.07 37
10Y P/E Exit $48.09 $102.92 $178.69 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $46.47 $190.82 $259.90 54
Lynch FV $47.98 $68.54 $89.10 50
PEG = 1.0 $47.98 $68.54 $89.10 46
EPV $75.33 $89.09 $100.96 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.7200 $1.44 $2.18 70
DDM Multi-Stage $0.7200 $1.24 $1.52 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $112.75 $150.33 $187.91 63
P/S Multiple $64.16 $85.55 $106.93 58
P/B Multiple $87.12 $116.16 $145.20 55
EV/EBIT $149.78 $203.65 $257.51 53
EV/EBITDA $112.70 $154.21 $195.71 54
EV/Revenue $48.07 $73.73 $99.40 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $24.71 $33.12 $49.43 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $17.79 $36.59 $65.82 80
Rev-Margin DCF $36.63 $75.06 $122.67 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $47.13 $60.43 $169.94 76
ROIC Compounder $83.32 $113.23 $151.99 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $85.08 $121.54 $158.00 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($121.54) versus Dividend Discount ($1.24). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $2.2B
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.2%
Net margin 8.8%
Return on equity 13.6%
Free cash flow $75.7M FY2025
P/E ratio 20.1
More key figures
Operating margin 13.5%
EPS (TTM) $6.21
EPS growth (YoY) -23.5%
Net debt $584M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 56
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 29
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 76
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 58
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 55
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 89
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Dorman Products, Inc. supplies replacement and upgrade parts for the motor vehicle aftermarket industry in the United States and internationally. It operates through segments Light Duty, Heavy Duty, and Specialty Vehicle segments.

Full company description

Dorman Products, Inc. supplies replacement and upgrade parts for the motor vehicle aftermarket industry in the United States and internationally. It operates through segments Light Duty, Heavy Duty, and Specialty Vehicle segments. The company offers engine products, including intake and exhaust manifolds, oil filters and coolers, fans, thermostat housings, and throttle bodies; undercar products, such as fluid lines, fluid reservoirs, connectors, 4-wheel drive components and axles, drain plugs, other engine, transmission, and axle components; steering and suspension products comprising control arms, ball joints, tie-rod ends, brake hardware and hydraulics, wheel and axle hardware, suspension arms, knuckles, links, bushings, and leaf springs, as well as other suspension, steering, and brake components; body products, including door handles and hinges, window lift motors, window regulators, switches and handles, wiper components, lighting, electrical, and other interior and exterior vehicle body components, including windshields for UTVs; electronics products, such as new and remanufactured modules, clusters and sensors; and hardware products consisting of threaded bolts and auto body fasteners, automotive and home electrical wiring components, and other hardware assortments and merchandise. It also provides OE FIX solutions, including exhaust manifolds, metal heater hose connectors, and aluminum oil filter housings; and intake manifolds, exhaust manifolds, oil filters and coolers, exhaust gas recirculation coolers, driveshafts, UTV windshields, and complex electronics modules. The company markets its products under the DORMAN, DORMAN OE FIX, HELP!, Conduct-Tite, Dayton Parts, SuperATV, Keller Performance Products, Assault Industries, Gboost, and GDP brands through aftermarket retailers, dealers, and national, regional, and local wholesale distributors and specialty markets. Dorman Products, Inc. was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Colmar, Pennsylvania.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Dorman Products, Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was $204M in FY2025, compounding +11.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$2.1B
Latest YoY
+6.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+7.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+14.3%
Avg. growth/yr (36Y)
+12.4%
Revenue +12.2%/yr
FY21 $1.3B
FY22 $1.7B
FY23 $1.9B
FY24 $2.0B
FY25 $2.1B
Net income +11.6%/yr
FY21 $132M
FY22 $122M
FY23 $129M
FY24 $190M
FY25 $204M

DORM screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Hyundai Mobis Co →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dorman Products, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DORM

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 642 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −27% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Return on assets 9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 4% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.27× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.87× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.97× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 56.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 11.8× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.17× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 17
FUTURE 21 · sector 23
PAST 54 · sector 26
HEALTH 86 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 482,000 KRW 678,420 KRW +41%
Magna International Inc MGAN 1,122 MXN 1,172 MXN +4%
Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON ₹144.17 ₹80.63 -44%
Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD ₹41,110 ₹14,004 -66%
Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG ₹2,117 ₹441.74 -79%
Uno Minda Limited UNOMINDA ₹1,158 ₹426.57 -63%
Schaeffler India Limited SCHAEFFLER ₹4,135 ₹1,412 -66%
Hankook Tire & Technology Co 161390 73,600 KRW 196,479 KRW +167%
MRF Limited MRF ₹131,025 ₹125,849 -4%
Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited SONACOMS ₹792.00 ₹207.06 -74%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Dorman Products, Inc (DORM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $103.58 versus a price of $140.91, about −26% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DORM?
Our model-based fair value for Dorman Products, Inc is $103.58 (as of Jul 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $140.91.
What is the quality score of DORM?
Dorman Products, Inc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Dorman Products, Inc (DORM)?
Dorman Products, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.2B (latest available figure, as of Jul 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of DORM?
The net profit margin of Dorman Products, Inc is about 8.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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