Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $2.0M
Direct Digital Holdings
DRCT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price −3.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 76% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.6700). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
54‑month range $2.38 – $7,152 · fair‑value band $0.5700 – $0.6700 · the $2.58 price screens above the $0.6100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT) currently trades at $2.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6100, implying the stock looks roughly 76.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Direct Digital Holdings generated revenue of $33.2M at a net margin of -65.8%. Revenue declined 18.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 57.4%. Net debt stands at $12.3M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.5700 (bear case) to $0.6700 (bull case); at $2.58, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -1% fair-value upside, at -76%, DRCT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 1
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Direct Digital Holdings, Inc. operates as an end-to-end full-service advertising and marketing platform. The company's platform primarily focuses on providing advertising technology, data-driven campaign optimization, and other solutions to underserved and less efficient markets on both the buy and sell-side of the digital advertising ecosystem.
Full company description
Direct Digital Holdings, Inc. operates as an end-to-end full-service advertising and marketing platform. The company's platform primarily focuses on providing advertising technology, data-driven campaign optimization, and other solutions to underserved and less efficient markets on both the buy and sell-side of the digital advertising ecosystem. It serves various industry verticals, such as travel, education, healthcare, financial services, consumer products, and other sectors with a focus on small and mid-sized businesses. The company was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Direct Digital Holdings reported revenue of $34.7M in FY2025 versus $38.1M in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$18.9M in FY2025.
DRCT screens 76% overvalued. Compare with AppLovin Corporation →
Peer Group
Advertising Agencies · 199 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| AppLovin Corporation APP | $506.98 | $181.37 | -64% |
| Publicis Groupe S.A PUB | €87.16 | €146.36 | +68% |
| Omnicom Group OMC | $80.75 | $99.84 | +24% |
| Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 | ¥5.00 | ¥4.08 | -18% |
| The Trade Desk, Inc TTD | $19.37 | $20.76 | +7% |
| BlueFocus Intelligent Communications Group 300058 | ¥13.81 | ¥1.50 | -89% |
| JCDecaux SE DEC | €21.28 | €20.99 | -1% |
| WPP plc WPP | $18.13 | $18.56 | +2% |
| Easy Click Worldwide Network Technology Co 301171 | ¥28.85 | ¥5.62 | -81% |
| Mobvista Inc 1860 | HK$11.15 | HK$6.43 | -42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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