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Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Direct Digital Holdings Inc $0.60, price $0.91, upside -34.1%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Communication Services · US · ISIN US25461T1051

DD Direct Digital Holdings Inc logo Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Direct Digital Holdings Inc

DRCT · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $0.6000 · Overvalued (−34.1%)
!Quality 42/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +22.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -65.8% net margin (TTM)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/7)
!Narrow moat 25/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$7,152 $0.9100 Fair Value $0.6000 Aug 2006 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.9100 – $7,152 · fair‑value band $0.5600 – $0.6600 · the $0.9100 price screens above the $0.6000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Direct Digital Holdings, Inc. operates as an end-to-end full-service advertising and marketing platform. The company's platform primarily focuses on providing advertising technology, data-driven campaign optimization, and other solutions to underserved and less efficient markets on both the buy and sell-side of the digital advertising ecosystem.

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Direct Digital Holdings, Inc. operates as an end-to-end full-service advertising and marketing platform. The company's platform primarily focuses on providing advertising technology, data-driven campaign optimization, and other solutions to underserved and less efficient markets on both the buy and sell-side of the digital advertising ecosystem. It serves various industry verticals, such as travel, education, healthcare, financial services, consumer products, and other sectors with a focus on small and mid-sized businesses. The company was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Stock analysis

Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT) currently trades at $0.9100, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6000, 34.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.5600 (bear) to $0.6600 (bull), the price of $0.9100 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Direct Digital Holdings Inc reported revenue of $34.7M in FY2025 versus $38.1M in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$18.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.0M · P/S ratio 0.06 · EPS (TTM) $−35.60 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin −54.6% · Return on equity 57.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −17.7% · Operating margin −48.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 99% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 23% fair-value upside, at −34%, DRCT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.5600 Fair Value $0.6000 Bull $0.6600
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $0.6900 $0.7500 $0.8400 67
DDM Multi-Stage $0.6900 $0.8500 $1.07 65
All 2 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.6900 $0.7500 $0.8400 67
DDM Multi-Stage $0.6900 $0.8500 $1.07 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 0

Profitability 49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 14
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 4
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−44.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−27.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6.8% (2020) → −42.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

DRCT screens overvalued: fair value 34% below the price. Compare with AppLovin Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Advertising Agencies · 189 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −60.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −40.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −65.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −48.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −18.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 13
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 9
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)55 · sector 54

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Advertising Agencies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
AppLovin Corporation APP $290.43 $319.47 +10%
Publicis Groupe S.A PUB €94.24 €145.63 +55%
Omnicom Group OMC $73.63 $114.19 +55%
Focus Media Information Technology Co 002027 ¥4.66 ¥5.71 +23%
JCDecaux SE DEC €24.96 €20.99 −16%
The Trade Desk, Inc TTD $12.05 $43.84 +264%
WPP plc WPP $25.99 $39.72 +53%
Leo Group 002131 ¥4.31 ¥0.6000 −86%
Magnite, Inc MGNI $25.67 $28.24 +10%
Mobvista Inc 1860 HK$13.51 HK$12.22 −10%

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Direct Digital Holdings Inc · Fair Value
$0.6000 −34%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Direct Digital Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DRCT

Frequently asked questions

Is Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6000 versus a price of $0.9100, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DRCT?
Our model-based fair value for Direct Digital Holdings Inc is $0.6000 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.9100.
What is the quality score of DRCT?
Direct Digital Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6000 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5600, optimistic scenario $0.6600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Direct Digital Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6000, about −34% upside versus a price of $0.9100 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.5600, optimistic scenario $0.6600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT)?
Direct Digital Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $33.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Direct Digital Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Direct Digital Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Direct Digital Holdings Inc it is $0.6000 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $0.9100. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Direct Digital Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, DRCT trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.9100, fair value $0.6000, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DRCT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.9100); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6000). For Direct Digital Holdings Inc the two are $0.3100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Direct Digital Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Direct Digital Holdings Inc at about $2.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $0.9100; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DRCT?
Our models span a range for Direct Digital Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $0.5600, base $0.6000, optimistic $0.6600 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $0.9100). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Direct Digital Holdings Inc (as of Sep 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DRCT from its 52-week high?
Direct Digital Holdings Inc trades at $0.9100, about 99% below its 52-week high of $83.82 and at the low of $0.9100 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Direct Digital Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Direct Digital Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $0.9100, calculated fair value $0.6000 (−34%), Quality Score 42/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DRCT calculated?
We run Direct Digital Holdings Inc through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Direct Digital Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.9100. Our model-based fair value is $0.6000, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Direct Digital Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.6600). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Direct Digital Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT)?
The market capitalisation of Direct Digital Holdings Inc is $2.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Direct Digital Holdings Inc is 0.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT)?
Earnings per share at Direct Digital Holdings Inc are $−35.60. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT)?
The dividend yield of Direct Digital Holdings Inc is 2.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT)?
The net margin of Direct Digital Holdings Inc is −54.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Direct Digital Holdings Inc is 57.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Direct Digital Holdings Inc is −17.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT)?
The operating margin of Direct Digital Holdings Inc is −48.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT)?
Revenue at Direct Digital Holdings Inc is growing −18.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −27.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT)?
Earnings per share at Direct Digital Holdings Inc are growing +302% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT) generate?
The free cash flow of Direct Digital Holdings Inc is −$9.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Direct Digital Holdings Inc (DRCT) carry?
The net debt of Direct Digital Holdings Inc is $12.3M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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