Dynex Capital, Inc (DX) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $2.8B
Dynex Capital, Inc
DX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price −0.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 50% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($4.86 to $9.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.62 – $14.00 · fair‑value band $4.86 – $9.72 · the $12.95 price screens above the $6.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
Dynex Capital, Inc (DX) currently trades at $12.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.52, implying the stock looks roughly 49.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Dynex Capital, Inc generated revenue of $304M at a net margin of 79.5%. Revenue grew 234.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.8%. Net debt stands at $13.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.86 (bear case) to $9.72 (bull case); at $12.95, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -50%, DX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($16.02) versus Asset-Based ($7.67). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Dynex Capital, Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, invests in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. Agency MBS have a guaranty of principal payment by an agency of the U.S. government or a U.S. government-sponsored entity, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Full company description
Dynex Capital, Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, invests in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. Agency MBS have a guaranty of principal payment by an agency of the U.S. government or a U.S. government-sponsored entity, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Non-Agency MBS do not have a guaranty of principal or interest payments. The company has qualified as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Glen Allen, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Dynex Capital, Inc reported revenue of $534M in FY2025 versus $66.8M in FY2021, a compound +68.1%/yr. Reported net income was $319M in FY2025, compounding +32.9%/yr from FY2021.
DX screens 50% overvalued. Compare with Annaly Capital Management, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Dynex Capital Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Dynex Capital (DX) Dividend Outlook Remains Strong, Says BTIG
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.45 | $22.84 | +2% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.56 | $12.03 | +14% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $16.52 | $14.93 | -10% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $9.12 | $20.75 | +128% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $16.69 | $14.84 | -11% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.13 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.37 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI | $6.76 | $13.56 | +101% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.26 | -4% |
| Ladder Capital Corp LADR | $9.77 | $7.68 | -21% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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