Dynex Capital Inc (DX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Dynex Capital Inc $9.43, price $11.73, upside -19.6%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.37 – $13.46 · fair‑value band $7.86 – $18.94 · the $11.73 price screens above the $9.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Dynex Capital, Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, invests in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. Agency MBS have a guaranty of principal payment by an agency of the U.S. government or a U.S. government-sponsored entity, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
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Dynex Capital, Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, invests in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. Agency MBS have a guaranty of principal payment by an agency of the U.S. government or a U.S. government-sponsored entity, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Non-Agency MBS do not have a guaranty of principal or interest payments. The company has qualified as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Glen Allen, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Dynex Capital Inc (DX) currently trades at $11.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.43, implying the stock looks roughly 24.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $22.11 per share, and 10 of the 14 models we run sit above the $11.73 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.65, and 4 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $7.86 (bear) to $18.94 (bull), the price of $11.73 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Dynex Capital Inc reported revenue of $534M in FY2025 versus $66.8M in FY2021, a compound +68.1%/yr. Reported net income was $319M in FY2025, compounding +32.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.1B · P/E ratio 3.7 · P/S ratio 2.24 · EPS (TTM) $3.13 · Net margin 59.8% · Return on equity 18.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% · Operating margin 91.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 121% fair-value upside, at −20%, DX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.86Fair Value $9.43Bull $18.94
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7973 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+67.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.3% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−16.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14% vs 5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.91% → 138%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 39 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Below median
Fair Value upside−20% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)87% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)92% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth235% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)17.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dynex Capital Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DX
Frequently asked questions
Is Dynex Capital Inc (DX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.43 versus a price of $11.73, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DX?
Our model-based fair value for Dynex Capital Inc is $9.43 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.73.
What is the quality score of DX?
Dynex Capital Inc has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dynex Capital Inc (DX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.43 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.86, optimistic scenario $18.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dynex Capital Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.43, about −20% upside versus a price of $11.73 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.86, optimistic scenario $18.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dynex Capital Inc (DX)?
Dynex Capital Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $502M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Dynex Capital Inc (DX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Dynex Capital Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +27.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DX use?
Our models discount Dynex Capital Inc at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.94, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Dynex Capital Inc that is +27.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Dynex Capital Inc (DX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Dynex Capital Inc grew +18.1 % a year. The price currently implies +27.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Dynex Capital Inc (DX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Dynex Capital Inc (+27.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Dynex Capital Inc (DX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.61 %: that much free cash flow Dynex Capital Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Dynex Capital Inc (DX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dynex Capital Inc it is $9.43 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $11.73. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dynex Capital Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, DX trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.73, fair value $9.43, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.43). For Dynex Capital Inc the two are $2.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dynex Capital Inc worth?
The market values Dynex Capital Inc at about $3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $11.73; our models calculate a fair value of $9.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DX?
Our models span a range for Dynex Capital Inc: cautious scenario $7.86, base $9.43, optimistic $18.94 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $11.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DX?
Dynex Capital Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.43 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 1.3, P/S 6.1, EV/EBITDA 2.9.
What is the PEG ratio of DX?
The PEG ratio of Dynex Capital Inc is 0.71 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dynex Capital Inc (DX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dynex Capital Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.2%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DX from its 52-week high?
Dynex Capital Inc trades at $11.73, about 13% below its 52-week high of $13.46 and 12% above the low of $10.46 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dynex Capital Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dynex Capital Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $11.73, calculated fair value $9.43 (−20%), Quality Score 38/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DX calculated?
We run Dynex Capital Inc through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Dynex Capital Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dynex Capital Inc (DX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $11.73. Our model-based fair value is $9.43, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dynex Capital Inc right now?
Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($7.86 to $18.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Dynex Capital Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Dynex Capital Inc (DX)?
The market capitalisation of Dynex Capital Inc is $3.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dynex Capital Inc (DX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dynex Capital Inc is 2.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dynex Capital Inc (DX)?
Earnings per share at Dynex Capital Inc are $3.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Dynex Capital Inc (DX)?
The net margin of Dynex Capital Inc is 59.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dynex Capital Inc (DX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dynex Capital Inc is 18.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dynex Capital Inc (DX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dynex Capital Inc is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dynex Capital Inc (DX)?
The operating margin of Dynex Capital Inc is 91.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dynex Capital Inc (DX)?
Revenue at Dynex Capital Inc is growing +235% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dynex Capital Inc (DX)?
Earnings per share at Dynex Capital Inc are growing +92.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Dynex Capital Inc (DX) carry?
The net debt of Dynex Capital Inc is $13.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026