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Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Rithm Capital Corp. $10.99, price $9.42, upside +16.7%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Real Estate · US · ISIN US64828T2015

RC Rithm Capital Corp. logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Rithm Capital Corp.

RITM · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $10.99 · Undervalued (+17%)
!Quality 29/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +50.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.0% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·10.62% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Moderate moat 45/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$11.75 $4.96 Fair Value $10.99 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.96 – $11.75 · fair‑value band $10.37 – $11.99 · the $9.42 price screens below the $10.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Rithm Capital Corp. operates as an asset manager focused on real estate, credit, and financial services in the United States. It operates through Origination and Servicing, Residential Transitional Lending, and Asset Management and Investment Portfolio.

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Rithm Capital Corp. operates as an asset manager focused on real estate, credit, and financial services in the United States. It operates through Origination and Servicing, Residential Transitional Lending, and Asset Management and Investment Portfolio. The company's investment portfolio primarily comprises of single-family rental properties, title, appraisal and property preservation and maintenance businesses; real estate securities, call rights, SFR properties, residential mortgage loans, collateralized loan obligations and consumer loans, excess mortgage servicing rights, servicer advance investments, and asset management related investments. It also provides government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) and government guaranteed loans; non-GSE or non-government guaranteed loans; and residential transitional lending. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as New Residential Investment Corp. and changed its name to Rithm Capital Corp. in August 2022. Rithm Capital Corp. was incorporated in 2011 and is based in New York, New York.

Stock analysis

Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) currently trades at $9.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.99, implying the stock looks roughly 14.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $20.75 per share, and 4 of the 4 models we run sit above the $9.42 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.12, and 0 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $10.37 (bear) to $11.99 (bull), the price of $9.42 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Rithm Capital Corp. reported revenue of $5.7B in FY2025 versus $2.9B in FY2021, a compound +18.4%/yr. Reported net income was $681M in FY2025, compounding −3.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $5.3B · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 1.04 · EPS (TTM) $1.09 · Dividend yield 10.6% · Net margin 12.0% · Return on equity 8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 121% fair-value upside, at 17%, RITM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $10.37 Fair Value $10.99 Bull $11.99
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0658 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $12.41 $13.25 $14.74 74
EV/EBIT n/a n/a $7.88 61
P/S Multiple $15.56 $20.75 $25.94 58
All 5 models by family
Multiples
P/S Multiple $15.56 $20.75 $25.94 58
P/B Multiple $15.56 $20.75 $25.94 55
EV/EBIT n/a n/a $7.88 61
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.55 $10.12 $15.10 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $12.41 $13.25 $14.74 74

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 12
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 60
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 22
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 13
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.5%
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+82.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+4.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4% vs −6%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.43% → 65%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 39 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +14% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 17% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 65% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 10.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 4.21× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.65× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 1.28× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 28.8× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)56 · sector 100
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 9
PAST (return on equity)34 · sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 0
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 100

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY $21.44 $23.37 +9%
AGNC Investment Corp AGNC $10.09 $25.23 +150%
Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD $15.10 $35.89 +138%
Dynex Capital, Inc DX $12.10 $11.09 −8%
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT $13.14 $32.85 +150%
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR $14.99 $23.05 +54%
Ellington Financial Inc EFC $12.70 $13.45 +6%
Ladder Capital Corp LADR $9.41 $7.57 −20%
Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC $6.12 $15.30 +150%
Chimera Investment Corporation CIM $11.15 $24.68 +121%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rithm Capital Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RITM

Frequently asked questions

Is Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.99 versus a price of $9.42, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RITM?
Our model-based fair value for Rithm Capital Corp. is $10.99 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.42.
What is the quality score of RITM?
Rithm Capital Corp. has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.99 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.37, optimistic scenario $11.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rithm Capital Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.99, about +17% upside versus a price of $9.42 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $10.37, optimistic scenario $11.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
Rithm Capital Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Rithm Capital Corp. pay a dividend?
Rithm Capital Corp. currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.62% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rithm Capital Corp. it is $10.99 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.42. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rithm Capital Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, RITM trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.42, fair value $10.99, a gap of about +17% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RITM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.99). For Rithm Capital Corp. the two are $1.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rithm Capital Corp. worth?
The market values Rithm Capital Corp. at about $5.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.42; our models calculate a fair value of $10.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RITM?
Our models span a range for Rithm Capital Corp.: cautious scenario $10.37, base $10.99, optimistic $11.99 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RITM?
Rithm Capital Corp. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 28.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rithm Capital Corp. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.5%, debt of 4.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RITM from its 52-week high?
Rithm Capital Corp. trades at $9.42, about 20% below its 52-week high of $11.75 and 10% above the low of $8.54 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rithm Capital Corp.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Dynex Capital, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rithm Capital Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.42, calculated fair value $10.99 (+17%), Quality Score 29/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RITM calculated?
We run Rithm Capital Corp. through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Rithm Capital Corp. currently trades 17 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $9.42. Our model-based fair value is $10.99, about +17% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rithm Capital Corp. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($10.37). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) come from?
Earnings per share at Rithm Capital Corp. grew −2.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.0 %, EBIT margin −8.1 %, tax rate −1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Rithm Capital Corp.

How large is the market capitalisation of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
The market capitalisation of Rithm Capital Corp. is $5.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rithm Capital Corp. is 1.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
Earnings per share at Rithm Capital Corp. are $1.09 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
The dividend yield of Rithm Capital Corp. is 10.6% (payout 91.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
The net margin of Rithm Capital Corp. is 12.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rithm Capital Corp. is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rithm Capital Corp. is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
The operating margin of Rithm Capital Corp. is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
Revenue at Rithm Capital Corp. is growing +64.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +50.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
Earnings per share at Rithm Capital Corp. are growing +72.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) generate?
The free cash flow of Rithm Capital Corp. is −$763M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) carry?
The net debt of Rithm Capital Corp. is $37.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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