Rithm Capital Corp (RITM) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $5.1B
Rithm Capital Corp
RITM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 5 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +13.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 73% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (29/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($13.23). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.96 – $11.75 · fair‑value band $13.23 – $22.05 · the $10.19 price screens below the $17.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Rithm Capital Corp (RITM) currently trades at $10.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.64, implying the stock looks roughly 73.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Rithm Capital Corp generated revenue of $4.2B at a net margin of 17.0%. Revenue grew 64.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.5%. Net debt stands at $37.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.23 (bear case) to $22.05 (bull case); at $10.19, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 73%, RITM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 5 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($20.75) versus Asset-Based ($10.12). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Rithm Capital Corp. operates as an asset manager focused on real estate, credit, and financial services in the United States. It operates through Origination and Servicing, Residential Transitional Lending, and Asset Management and Investment Portfolio.
Full company description
Rithm Capital Corp. operates as an asset manager focused on real estate, credit, and financial services in the United States. It operates through Origination and Servicing, Residential Transitional Lending, and Asset Management and Investment Portfolio. The company's investment portfolio primarily comprises of single-family rental properties, title, appraisal and property preservation and maintenance businesses; real estate securities, call rights, SFR properties, residential mortgage loans, collateralized loan obligations and consumer loans, excess mortgage servicing rights, servicer advance investments, and asset management related investments. It also provides government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) and government guaranteed loans; non-GSE or non-government guaranteed loans; and residential transitional lending. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as New Residential Investment Corp. and changed its name to Rithm Capital Corp. in August 2022. Rithm Capital Corp. was incorporated in 2011 and is based in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Rithm Capital Corp reported revenue of $5.7B in FY2025 versus $2.9B in FY2021, a compound +18.4%/yr. Reported net income was $681M in FY2025, compounding −3.1%/yr from FY2021.
Watch RITM: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Rithm Capital’s (RITM) Stronger-Than-Expected Distribution Hiding Deeper Shifts in Its Business Model?
- Rithm Capital Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Up Y/Y
- Rithm Capital Corp. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- Rithm Captial CEO on Real Estate Outlook
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.45 | $22.84 | +2% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.56 | $12.03 | +14% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $16.52 | $14.93 | -10% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $16.69 | $14.84 | -11% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $12.60 | $7.67 | -39% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.13 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.37 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI | $6.76 | $13.56 | +101% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.26 | -4% |
| Ladder Capital Corp LADR | $9.77 | $7.68 | -21% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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