Ellington Financial Inc (EFC) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $1.7B
Ellington Financial Inc
EFC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price +1.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.91 – $13.71 · fair‑value band $8.58 – $14.29 · the $13.60 price screens above the $11.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
Ellington Financial Inc (EFC) currently trades at $13.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.43, implying the stock looks roughly 15.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ellington Financial Inc generated revenue of $400M at a net margin of 53.4%. Revenue grew 76.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.2%. Net debt stands at $16.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.58 (bear case) to $14.29 (bull case); at $13.60, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -16%, EFC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($13.45) versus Asset-Based ($9.80). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Investment Portfolio and Longbridge.
Full company description
Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Investment Portfolio and Longbridge. The company acquires and manages residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by prime jumbo, Alt-A, non-QM, manufactured housing, subprime residential, and single-family-rental mortgage loans; RMBS for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the U.S. government agency or the U.S. government-sponsored entity; residential and commercial mortgage loans; residential mortgage-backed securities; commercial mortgage-backed securities; consumer loans and asset-backed securities backed by consumer loans; investments referencing mortgage servicing rights on traditional forward mortgage loans; collateralized loan obligations; non-mortgage- and mortgage-related derivatives; debt and equity investments in loan origination companies; and other strategic investments. It also offers reverse mortgage loans, including associated financial assets, financing, hedging, and allocated expenses. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for federal income tax purposes that intends to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income as dividends to shareholders. Ellington Financial Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Old Greenwich, Connecticut.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ellington Financial Inc reported revenue of $675M in FY2025 versus $122M in FY2021, a compound +53.4%/yr. Reported net income was $147M in FY2025, compounding +15.5%/yr from FY2021.
EFC screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Annaly Capital Management, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Ellington Financial to Report Q2 Earnings: What to Expect?
- Can Longbridge Growth Strengthen Ellington Financial's Earnings Base?
- Is Ellington Financial a Buy as Earnings Improve but Costs Rise Now?
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.45 | $22.84 | +2% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.56 | $12.03 | +14% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $16.52 | $14.93 | -10% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $9.12 | $20.75 | +128% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $16.69 | $14.84 | -11% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $12.60 | $7.67 | -39% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.13 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI | $6.76 | $13.56 | +101% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.26 | -4% |
| Ladder Capital Corp LADR | $9.77 | $7.68 | -21% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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