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Data-driven stock valuation

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ellington Financial Inc. stock $11.12, price $11.26, that is 1.3% below the price, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate US

EF Ellington Financial Inc. logo Broad data Nov 8, 2026

Ellington Financial Inc.

EFC · US
Fairly valued, weak quality

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Highly profitable · 51.5% net margin (TTM)
Upbeat coverage
Broad data
Revenue last quarter +34% vs. a year ago.
Fair value $11.12 · Fairly valued
Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +139.0 %/yr in USD)
13.9% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
Moderate moat 54/100
Quality 39/100
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$13.43 $6.64 Fair Value $11.12 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.64 – $13.43 · fair‑value band $9.27 – $44.47 · the $11.26 price screens above the $11.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Investment Portfolio and Longbridge.

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The company acquires and manages residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by prime jumbo, Alt-A, non-QM, manufactured housing, subprime residential, and single-family-rental mortgage loans; RMBS for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the U.S. government agency or the U.S. government-sponsored entity; residential and commercial mortgage loans; residential mortgage-backed securities; commercial mortgage-backed securities; consumer loans and asset-backed securities backed by consumer loans; investments referencing mortgage servicing rights on traditional forward mortgage loans; collateralized loan obligations; non-mortgage- and mortgage-related derivatives; debt and equity investments in loan origination companies; and other strategic investments.

It also offers reverse mortgage loans, including associated financial assets, financing, hedging, and allocated expenses.

The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for federal income tax purposes that intends to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income as dividends to shareholders. Ellington Financial Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Old Greenwich, Connecticut.

Stock analysis

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) currently trades at $11.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.12, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.3%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $18.65 per share, and 5 of the 8 models we run sit above the $11.26 price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $1.66, and 3 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $9.27 (bear) to $44.47 (bull), the price of $11.26 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Ellington Financial Inc. reported revenue of $675M in FY2025 versus $122M in FY2021, a compound +53.4%/yr. Reported net income was $147M in FY2025, compounding +15.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.6B Small · P/E ratio 6.9 · P/S ratio 3.61 · EPS (TTM) $1.61 · Dividend yield 13.9% · Net margin 51.5% · Return on equity 12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 56% fair-value upside, at −1%, EFC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $9.27 Fair Value $11.12 Bull $44.47
Price $11.26 · Downside -1.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0427 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF n/a $1.66 >$6.64 74
Residual Income $11.24 $11.86 $12.95 74
Growth DCF n/a $13.95 >$55.80 73
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF n/a $1.66 >$6.64 74
10Y EBITDA Exit n/a n/a $51.85 63
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $10.90 $19.44 $26.51 66
DDM Multi-Stage $10.90 $17.86 $20.79 65
Multiples
P/S Multiple $9.81 $13.08 $16.35 58
P/B Multiple $7.58 $10.10 $12.63 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.00 $9.38 $14.01 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF n/a $13.95 >$55.80 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income $11.24 $11.86 $12.95 74

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 31
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 100
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 4
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 56
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 77
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 27
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 25
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+139.0%
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)13.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.2% vs −0.8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.116% → 62%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 31 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −1.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 12.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets 0.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 51.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 55.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 33.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 13.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 8.27× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 6.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.85× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 3.61× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 3.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 36.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.86× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)32 · sector 100
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 97
PAST (return on equity)49 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 100

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
MFA Financial, Inc MFA $6.21 $14.69 +137% vs EFC
AGNC Investment Corp AGNC $8.78 $18.66 +113% vs EFC
Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD $12.05 $25.00 +107% vs EFC
Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC $4.94 $8.77 +78% vs EFC
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR $12.60 $19.59 +56% vs EFC
Rithm Capital Corp RITM $9.23 $13.14 +42% vs EFC
Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY $18.75 $19.24 +3% vs EFC
Dynex Capital, Inc DX $10.68 $9.12 −15% vs EFC
Ladder Capital Corp LADR $8.91 $7.56 −15% vs EFC
Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund QRI A$1.48 A$1.17 −21% vs EFC

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Ellington Financial Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ellington Financial Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EFC

Frequently asked questions

Is Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.12 versus a price of $11.26, about 1% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of EFC?
Our model-based fair value for Ellington Financial Inc. is $11.12 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.26.
What is the quality score of EFC?
Ellington Financial Inc. has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.12 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.27, optimistic scenario $44.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ellington Financial Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.12, about 1% lower versus a price of $11.26 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $9.27, optimistic scenario $44.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)?
Ellington Financial Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $431M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Ellington Financial Inc. pay a dividend?
Ellington Financial Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 13.85% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ellington Financial Inc. pays a dividend of $1.56 per share a year, a dividend yield of 13.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2010. The payout ratio is 96.9% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ellington Financial Inc. it is $11.12 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $11.26. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Ellington Financial Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, EFC trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.26, fair value $11.12, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EFC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.12). For Ellington Financial Inc. the two are $0.1420 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ellington Financial Inc. worth?
The market values Ellington Financial Inc. at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $11.26; our models calculate a fair value of $11.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EFC?
Our models span a range for Ellington Financial Inc.: cautious scenario $9.27, base $11.12, optimistic $44.47 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $11.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EFC?
Ellington Financial Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.12 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 10.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 0.9, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 36.0.
What is the PEG ratio of EFC?
The PEG ratio of Ellington Financial Inc. is 0.86 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ellington Financial Inc. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 12.3%, debt of 8.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EFC from its 52-week high?
Ellington Financial Inc. trades at $11.26, about 16% below its 52-week high of $13.43 and 7% above the low of $10.53 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ellington Financial Inc.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Rithm Capital Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ellington Financial Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $11.26, calculated fair value $11.12 (−1%), Quality Score 39/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EFC calculated?
We run Ellington Financial Inc. through 9 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $11.12 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Ellington Financial Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $11.26. Our model-based fair value is $11.12, about 1% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ellington Financial Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($9.27 to $44.47). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) come from?
Earnings per share at Ellington Financial Inc. grew −0.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.4 %, EBIT margin −6.3 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Ellington Financial Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)?
The market capitalisation of Ellington Financial Inc. is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ellington Financial Inc. is 3.61 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)?
Earnings per share at Ellington Financial Inc. are $1.61 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)?
The dividend yield of Ellington Financial Inc. is 13.9% (payout 96.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)?
The net margin of Ellington Financial Inc. is 51.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ellington Financial Inc. is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ellington Financial Inc. is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)?
The operating margin of Ellington Financial Inc. is 55.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)?
Revenue at Ellington Financial Inc. is growing +33.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +150%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)?
Earnings per share at Ellington Financial Inc. are growing −3.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) generate?
The free cash flow of Ellington Financial Inc. is $509M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) carry?
The net debt of Ellington Financial Inc. is $16.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 32.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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