ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc stock $19.59, price $12.60, upside +55.5%, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.31 – $23.56 · fair‑value band $14.70 – $24.50 · the $12.60 price screens below the $19.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States.
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Its securities portfolio primarily consists of the United States Government-sponsored entity's (GSE) and the Government National Mortgage Administration's issued or guaranteed securities backed by fixed rate, hybrid adjustable rate, and adjustable-rate home loans; and unsecured notes and bonds issued by the GSE and the United States treasuries, as well as money market instruments.
The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust. ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Vero Beach, Florida.
Stock analysis
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) currently trades at $12.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.59, implying the stock looks roughly 36% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $46.16 per share, and 12 of the 13 models we run sit above the $12.60 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.70, and 1 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $14.70 (bear) to $24.50 (bull), the price of $12.60 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $19.2M in FY2021, a compound +187.3%/yr. Reported net income was $323M in FY2025, compounding +201.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.8B Small · P/E ratio 252.0 · P/S ratio 62.3 · EPS (TTM) $0.0500 · Net margin 24.7% · Return on equity −2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin 105%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 55%, ARR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$14.70Fair Value $19.59Bull$24.50
Price $12.60 · Upside +55.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$36.61$46.16$61.6079
Growth DCF$37.54$45.60$57.7778
Residual Income$14.36$16.23$19.3174
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$36.61$46.16$61.6079
5Y Revenue Exit$23.72$29.41$37.6072
5Y EBITDA Exit$40.67$58.70$82.5773
10Y Revenue Exit$29.41$33.75$37.9766
10Y EBITDA Exit$38.53$49.32$60.6468
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$14.10$15.08$16.5367
DDM Multi-Stage$14.10$16.37$19.2065
Multiples
P/S Multiple$17.29$23.05$28.8258
P/B Multiple$16.77$22.36$27.9555
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$7.99$10.70$15.9754
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$37.54$45.60$57.7778
Rev-Margin DCF$23.72$30.43$37.6572
Economic Profit
Residual Income$14.36$16.23$19.3174
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $10,085, on Sep 29, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $564,346.
BuySergey LosyevCo-Chief Investment Officer725 shares at $13.91$10,085Sep 29, 2026
SaleDaniel C StatonChairman of the Board, Director35,583 shares at $15.86$564,346Sep 10, 2026
SaleRobert C HainDirector6,833 shares at $18.06$123,404Jan 6, 2026
Plus 26 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+69.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+69.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.80% → 74%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Agency MBS holdings deliver reliable net interest income as the main strength of this mortgage REIT while limited moat signals and sharp book value swings from spread changes form its key weakness.
Main risk: Widening spreads with rate moves threaten the leveraged structure by pressuring book value stability and the coverage of distributable earnings.
Mortgage REITs generate reliable net interest income from agency MBS holdings but see book value swing sharply when spreads widen with rate moves. The recent quarter delivered exactly that contrast, a sizable GAAP loss alongside distributable earnings that still cover the steady dividend. Will spread volatility ease enough for book value to stabilize, or does the leveraged structure face ongoing pressure from these market shifts?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 31 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+55.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets1.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)24.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)105.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)126.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)22.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
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Is ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.59 versus a price of $12.60, about +55% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARR?
Our model-based fair value for ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is $19.59 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.60.
What is the quality score of ARR?
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.59 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.70, optimistic scenario $24.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.59, about +55% upside versus a price of $12.60 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $14.70, optimistic scenario $24.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc it is $19.59 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $12.60. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, ARR trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.60, fair value $19.59, a gap of about +55% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.59). For ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc the two are $6.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc worth?
The market values ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc at about $1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $12.60; our models calculate a fair value of $19.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARR?
Our models span a range for ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc: cautious scenario $14.70, base $19.59, optimistic $24.50 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $12.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARR?
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 252.0 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.59 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/B 0.8, EV/EBITDA 1.8.
What is the PEG ratio of ARR?
The PEG ratio of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is 2.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
Balance-sheet figures for ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −2.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARR from its 52-week high?
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc trades at $12.60, about 26% below its 52-week high of $17.07 and 4% above the low of $12.13 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Rithm Capital Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $12.60, calculated fair value $19.59 (+55%), Quality Score 32/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARR calculated?
We run ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $19.59 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc currently trades 36% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $12.60. Our model-based fair value is $19.59, about +55% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (32/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($14.70). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
The market capitalisation of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is $1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is 62.3 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
Earnings per share at ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc are $0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 252.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
The net margin of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is 24.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is −2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
The operating margin of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is 105% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
Revenue at ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is growing +126% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
Earnings per share at ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc are growing +23.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) generate?
The free cash flow of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is $124M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) carry?
The net debt of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is $17.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026
