ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc (ARR) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $2.1B
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc
ARR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −1.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.69 – $26.41 · fair‑value band $15.91 – $27.62 · the $16.68 price screens below the $17.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc (ARR) currently trades at $16.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.24, implying the stock looks roughly 3.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc generated revenue of $297M at a net margin of 80.9%. Revenue grew 126.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.9%. Net debt stands at $17.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $15.91 (bear case) to $27.62 (bull case); at $16.68, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 3%, ARR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($26.31) versus Asset-Based ($12.21). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. Its securities portfolio primarily consists of the United States Government-sponsored entity's (GSE) and the Government National Mortgage Administration's issued or guaranteed securities backed by fixed rate, hybrid adjustable rate, and …
Full company description
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. Its securities portfolio primarily consists of the United States Government-sponsored entity's (GSE) and the Government National Mortgage Administration's issued or guaranteed securities backed by fixed rate, hybrid adjustable rate, and adjustable-rate home loans; and unsecured notes and bonds issued by the GSE and the United States treasuries, as well as money market instruments. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust. ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Vero Beach, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $19.2M in FY2021, a compound +187.3%/yr. Reported net income was $323M in FY2025, compounding +201.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ARMOUR Residential REIT Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- ARMOUR Residential REIT declares $0.24 dividend
- ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Second Quarter 2026 Webcast Scheduled For July 23, 2026
- ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Confirms July 2026 Common Share and Q3 2026 Series C Preferred Share Dividends
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.45 | $22.84 | +2% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.56 | $12.03 | +14% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $16.52 | $14.93 | -10% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $9.12 | $20.75 | +128% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $16.69 | $14.84 | -11% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $12.60 | $7.67 | -39% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.37 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI | $6.76 | $13.56 | +101% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.26 | -4% |
| Ladder Capital Corp LADR | $9.77 | $7.68 | -21% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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