ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc $19.59, price $14.60, upside +34.2%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.44 – $24.40 · fair‑value band $14.70 – $24.50 · the $14.60 price screens below the $19.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States.
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ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. Its securities portfolio primarily consists of the United States Government-sponsored entity's (GSE) and the Government National Mortgage Administration's issued or guaranteed securities backed by fixed rate, hybrid adjustable rate, and adjustable-rate home loans; and unsecured notes and bonds issued by the GSE and the United States treasuries, as well as money market instruments. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust. ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Vero Beach, Florida.
Stock analysis
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) currently trades at $14.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.59, implying the stock looks roughly 25.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $59.06 per share, and 15 of the 16 models we run sit above the $14.60 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.70, and 1 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $14.70 (bear) to $24.50 (bull), the price of $14.60 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $19.2M in FY2021, a compound +187.3%/yr. Reported net income was $323M in FY2025, compounding +201.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.2B · P/E ratio 3.3 · P/S ratio 0.82 · EPS (TTM) $4.41 · Net margin 24.7% · Return on equity 20.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin 87.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 121% fair-value upside, at 34%, ARR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $14.70Fair Value $19.59Bull $24.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.12 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+69.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+69.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.80% → 74%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.8% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 39 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+34% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)88% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)87% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth126% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)19.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
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Is ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.59 versus a price of $14.60, about +34% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARR?
Our model-based fair value for ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is $19.59 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.60.
What is the quality score of ARR?
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.59 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.70, optimistic scenario $24.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.59, about +34% upside versus a price of $14.60 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $14.70, optimistic scenario $24.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $491M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +38.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 8 years revenue grew +34.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARR use?
Our models discount ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc that is +38.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) delivered so far?
Over the past 8 years revenue at ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc grew +34.1 % a year. The price currently implies +38.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (+38.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.54 %: that much free cash flow ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc it is $19.59 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $14.60. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ARR trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.60, fair value $19.59, a gap of about +34% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.59). For ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc the two are $4.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc worth?
The market values ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc at about $2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $14.60; our models calculate a fair value of $19.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARR?
Our models span a range for ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc: cautious scenario $14.70, base $19.59, optimistic $24.50 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $14.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARR?
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.59 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/B 1.0, P/S 4.6, EV/EBITDA 2.3.
What is the PEG ratio of ARR?
The PEG ratio of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is 2.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
Balance-sheet figures for ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 20.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARR from its 52-week high?
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc trades at $14.60, about 16% below its 52-week high of $17.34 and 21% above the low of $12.11 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $14.60, calculated fair value $19.59 (+34%), Quality Score 33/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARR calculated?
We run ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.59, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc currently trades 34 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $14.60. Our model-based fair value is $19.59, about +34% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
The market capitalisation of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is $2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is 0.82 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
Earnings per share at ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc are $4.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
The net margin of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is 24.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is 20.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
The operating margin of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is 87.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
Revenue at ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is growing +126% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)?
Earnings per share at ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc are growing +23.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) carry?
The net debt of ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc is $17.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026