Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Orchid Island Capital Inc. stock $8.77, price $4.94, upside +77.6%, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.45 – $10.14 · fair‑value band $5.33 – $11.24 · the $4.94 price screens below the $8.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States.
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The company's RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred to as Agency RMBS. Its portfolio comprises traditional pass-through Agency RMBS, such as mortgage pass through certificates and collateralized mortgage obligations; and structured Agency RMBS, including interest only securities, inverse interest only securities, and principal only securities.
The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for the United States federal income tax purposes.
As a result, it would not be subject to corporate income tax on that portion of its net income that is distributed to stockholders, if it annually distributes dividends equal to at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its shareholders.
Orchid Island Capital, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida.
Stock analysis
Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) currently trades at $4.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.77, implying the stock looks roughly 44% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $15.01 per share, and 10 of the 12 models we run sit above the $4.94 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.76, and 2 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.33 (bear) to $11.24 (bull), the price of $4.94 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Orchid Island Capital Inc. reported revenue of $180M in FY2025 versus −$49.5M in FY2021. Reported net income was $159M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $993M Small · P/S ratio 48.8 · EPS (TTM) $0.2000 · Net margin 88.6% · Return on equity −0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 104% · Revenue growth (YoY) +10.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 56% fair-value upside, at 78%, ORC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.33Fair Value $8.77Bull$11.24
Price $4.94 · Upside +77.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$12.18$15.51$19.6582
Growth DCF$12.17$15.01$18.3380
5Y EBITDA Exit$10.50$13.63$17.1977
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$12.18$15.51$19.6582
5Y Revenue Exit$8.15$9.21$10.3774
5Y EBITDA Exit$10.50$13.63$17.1977
10Y Revenue Exit$9.87$11.20$12.7268
10Y EBITDA Exit$11.16$13.79$17.1170
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$6.27$10.32$13.2268
DDM Multi-Stage$6.27$9.52$11.1267
Multiples
P/S Multiple$1.74$2.33$2.9158
P/B Multiple$7.46$9.95$12.4455
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$3.55$4.76$7.1154
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$12.17$15.01$18.3380
Economic Profit
Residual Income$5.87$6.42$7.2976
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+229.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+69.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +34.9% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+93.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.4% vs 11.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 89%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 31 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+77.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets1.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)−31.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)103.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)26.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.72× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)49.54× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)8.2× · Pricier than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orchid Island Capital Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORC
Frequently asked questions
Is Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.77 versus a price of $4.94, about +78% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ORC?
Our model-based fair value for Orchid Island Capital Inc. is $8.77 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.94.
What is the quality score of ORC?
Orchid Island Capital Inc. has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.77 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.33, optimistic scenario $11.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orchid Island Capital Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.77, about +78% upside versus a price of $4.94 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.33, optimistic scenario $11.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orchid Island Capital Inc. it is $8.77 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $4.94. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Orchid Island Capital Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, ORC trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.94, fair value $8.77, a gap of about +78% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.77). For Orchid Island Capital Inc. the two are $3.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orchid Island Capital Inc. worth?
The market values Orchid Island Capital Inc. at about $993M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $4.94; our models calculate a fair value of $8.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORC?
Our models span a range for Orchid Island Capital Inc.: cautious scenario $5.33, base $8.77, optimistic $11.24 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $4.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orchid Island Capital Inc. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity −0.6%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORC from its 52-week high?
Orchid Island Capital Inc. trades at $4.94, about 32% below its 52-week high of $7.27 and 4% above the low of $4.77 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orchid Island Capital Inc.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Rithm Capital Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orchid Island Capital Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $4.94, calculated fair value $8.77 (+78%), Quality Score 34/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORC calculated?
We run Orchid Island Capital Inc. through 12 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $8.77 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7% above its aggregate fair value. Orchid Island Capital Inc. currently trades 44% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $4.94. Our model-based fair value is $8.77, about +78% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orchid Island Capital Inc. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.33). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($5.33 to $11.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Orchid Island Capital Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
The market capitalisation of Orchid Island Capital Inc. is $993M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orchid Island Capital Inc. is 48.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
Earnings per share at Orchid Island Capital Inc. are $0.2000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
The net margin of Orchid Island Capital Inc. is 88.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orchid Island Capital Inc. is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orchid Island Capital Inc. is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
The operating margin of Orchid Island Capital Inc. is 104% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
Revenue at Orchid Island Capital Inc. is growing +10.0% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
Earnings per share at Orchid Island Capital Inc. are growing +794% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) generate?
The free cash flow of Orchid Island Capital Inc. is $120M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) carry?
The net debt of Orchid Island Capital Inc. is $9.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 79.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026
