Orchid Island Capital, Inc (ORC) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $1.3B
Orchid Island Capital, Inc
ORC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 12 days ago
Share price −5.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 17% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.67 – $11.66 · fair‑value band $4.85 – $6.34 · the $6.42 price screens above the $5.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Orchid Island Capital, Inc (ORC) currently trades at $6.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.32, implying the stock looks roughly 17.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Orchid Island Capital, Inc generated revenue of $146M at a net margin of 83.8%. It earns a return on equity of 10.9%. Net debt stands at $9.5B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 7.1. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.85 (bear case) to $6.34 (bull case); at $6.42, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -17%, ORC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($16.12) versus Asset-Based ($2.07). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. The company's RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred to as Agency RMBS.
Full company description
Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. The company's RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred to as Agency RMBS. Its portfolio comprises traditional pass-through Agency RMBS, such as mortgage pass through certificates and collateralized mortgage obligations; and structured Agency RMBS, including interest only securities, inverse interest only securities, and principal only securities. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for the United States federal income tax purposes. As a result, it would not be subject to corporate income tax on that portion of its net income that is distributed to stockholders, if it annually distributes dividends equal to at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its shareholders. Orchid Island Capital, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Orchid Island Capital, Inc reported revenue of $180M in FY2025 versus −$49.5M in FY2021. Reported net income was $159M in FY2025.
ORC screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Annaly Capital Management, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Orchid Island Capital Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Is Orchid Island Capital (ORC) One of the Best Beaten-Down REITs Ready for a Rotation Rally After BTIG’s Neutral Start?
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.45 | $22.84 | +2% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.56 | $12.03 | +14% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $16.52 | $14.93 | -10% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $9.12 | $20.75 | +128% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $16.69 | $14.84 | -11% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $12.60 | $7.67 | -39% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.13 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.37 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI | $6.76 | $13.56 | +101% |
| Ladder Capital Corp LADR | $9.77 | $7.68 | -21% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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