Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Orchid Island Capital Inc. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.51 – $10.67 · fair‑value band $8.53 – $17.33 · the $6.08 price screens below the $11.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 20, 2026.
Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. The company's RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred to as Agency RMBS.
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Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. The company's RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred to as Agency RMBS. Its portfolio comprises traditional pass-through Agency RMBS, such as mortgage pass through certificates and collateralized mortgage obligations; and structured Agency RMBS, including interest only securities, inverse interest only securities, and principal only securities. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for the United States federal income tax purposes. As a result, it would not be subject to corporate income tax on that portion of its net income that is distributed to stockholders, if it annually distributes dividends equal to at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its shareholders. Orchid Island Capital, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida.
Stock analysis
Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) currently trades at $6.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.45, implying the stock looks roughly 46.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $17.08 per share, and 12 of the 15 models we run sit above the $6.08 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.66, and 3 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.53 (bear) to $17.33 (bull), the price of $6.08 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Orchid Island Capital Inc. reported revenue of $180M in FY2025 versus −$49.5M in FY2021. Reported net income was $159M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.2B · P/E ratio 3.5 · P/S ratio 3.08 · EPS (TTM) $1.75 · Net margin 88.6% · Return on equity 20.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% · Operating margin 93.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 88%, ORC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.53Fair Value $11.45Bull $17.33
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2676 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+229.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+69.9%
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+93.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs 12%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 89%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+24.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare Orchid Island Capital Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−19% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)91% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)93% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)22.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orchid Island Capital Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORC
Frequently asked questions
Is Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.45 versus a price of $6.08, about +88% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ORC?
Our model-based fair value for Orchid Island Capital Inc. is $11.45 (as of Sep 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.08.
What is the quality score of ORC?
Orchid Island Capital Inc. has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.45 (as of Sep 20, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.53, optimistic scenario $17.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orchid Island Capital Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.45, about +88% upside versus a price of $6.08 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.53, optimistic scenario $17.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
Orchid Island Capital Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $146M (latest available figure, as of Sep 20, 2026).
What growth is priced into Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orchid Island Capital Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +27.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +69.9 % per year. As of Sep 20, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORC use?
Our models discount Orchid Island Capital Inc. at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.55, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orchid Island Capital Inc. that is +27.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orchid Island Capital Inc. grew +69.9 % a year. The price currently implies +27.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orchid Island Capital Inc. (+27.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.92 %: that much free cash flow Orchid Island Capital Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orchid Island Capital Inc. it is $11.45 per share (as of Sep 20, 2026), against a price of $6.08. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orchid Island Capital Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 20, 2026, ORC trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.08, fair value $11.45, a gap of about +88% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.45). For Orchid Island Capital Inc. the two are $5.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orchid Island Capital Inc. worth?
The market values Orchid Island Capital Inc. at about $1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 20, 2026). Per share that is $6.08; our models calculate a fair value of $11.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORC?
Our models span a range for Orchid Island Capital Inc.: cautious scenario $8.53, base $11.45, optimistic $17.33 per share (as of Sep 20, 2026, price $6.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORC?
Orchid Island Capital Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.5 (as of Sep 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 5.0, EV/EBITDA 1.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orchid Island Capital Inc. (as of Sep 20, 2026): return on equity 20.8%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORC from its 52-week high?
Orchid Island Capital Inc. trades at $6.08, about 23% below its 52-week high of $7.86 and 6% above the low of $5.76 (as of Sep 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orchid Island Capital Inc.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orchid Island Capital Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 20, 2026: price $6.08, calculated fair value $11.45 (+88%), Quality Score 35/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORC calculated?
We run Orchid Island Capital Inc. through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Orchid Island Capital Inc. currently trades 88 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $6.08. Our model-based fair value is $11.45, about +88% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orchid Island Capital Inc. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($8.53). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($8.53 to $17.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Orchid Island Capital Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
The market capitalisation of Orchid Island Capital Inc. is $1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orchid Island Capital Inc. is 3.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
Earnings per share at Orchid Island Capital Inc. are $1.75 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
The net margin of Orchid Island Capital Inc. is 88.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orchid Island Capital Inc. is 20.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orchid Island Capital Inc. is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
The operating margin of Orchid Island Capital Inc. is 93.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
Revenue at Orchid Island Capital Inc. is growing +10.0% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC)?
Earnings per share at Orchid Island Capital Inc. are growing +794% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Orchid Island Capital Inc. (ORC) carry?
The net debt of Orchid Island Capital Inc. is $9.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 79.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 20, 2026