Starwood Property Trust, Inc (STWD) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $6.3B
Starwood Property Trust, Inc
STWD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.95 – $19.39 · fair‑value band $9.51 – $15.85 · the $16.45 price screens above the $14.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Starwood Property Trust, Inc (STWD) currently trades at $16.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.93, implying the stock looks roughly 9.2% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Starwood Property Trust, Inc generated revenue of $581M at a net margin of 60.5%. Revenue grew 21.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.3%. Net debt stands at $21.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.51 (bear case) to $15.85 (bull case); at $16.45, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -9%, STWD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($27.28) versus Asset-Based ($12.28). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Commercial and Residential Lending; Infrastructure Lending; Property; and Investing and Servicing.
Full company description
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Commercial and Residential Lending; Infrastructure Lending; Property; and Investing and Servicing. The Commercial and Residential Lending segment originates, acquires, finances, and manages commercial first mortgages, non-agency residential mortgages, subordinated mortgages, mezzanine loans, preferred equity, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), and residential mortgage-backed securities, as well as other real estate and real estate-related debt investments, including distressed or non-performing loans. Its Infrastructure Lending segment originates, acquires, finances, and manages infrastructure debt investments. The Property segment engages primarily in acquiring and managing equity interests in stabilized and to be stabilized commercial real estate properties, including multifamily properties, multi-tenant medical office net lease properties and diversified single-tenant triple net lease properties that are held for investment. Its Investing and Servicing segment manages and works out problem assets; acquires and manages unrated, investment grade, and non-investment grade rated CMBS comprising subordinated interests of securitization and re-securitization transactions; originates conduit loans for the primary purpose of selling these loans into securitization transactions; and acquires commercial real estate assets that include properties acquired from CMBS trusts. The company qualifies as a REIT for federal income tax purposes and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Starwood Property Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Starwood Property Trust, Inc reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +12.2%/yr. Reported net income was $412M in FY2025, compounding −2.1%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Starwood Property Trust (STWD) Q2 Earnings Meet Estimates
- Starwood Property Trust Reports Results for Quarter Ended June 30, 2026
- Analysts Estimate Starwood Property Trust (STWD) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for
- Starwood Property Trust (STWD) Completes $500 Million Notes Deal For Green Projects
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.45 | $22.84 | +2% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.56 | $12.03 | +14% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $9.12 | $20.75 | +128% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $16.69 | $14.84 | -11% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $12.60 | $7.67 | -39% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.13 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.37 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI | $6.76 | $13.56 | +101% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.26 | -4% |
| Ladder Capital Corp LADR | $9.77 | $7.68 | -21% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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