Annaly Capital Management, Inc (NLY) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $16.3B
Annaly Capital Management, Inc
NLY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +2.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (24/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.38 – $23.60 · fair‑value band $14.56 – $24.27 · the $23.04 price screens above the $19.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Annaly Capital Management, Inc (NLY) currently trades at $23.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.41, implying the stock looks roughly 15.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Annaly Capital Management, Inc generated revenue of $2.5B at a net margin of 87.4%. Revenue grew 48.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.0%. Net debt stands at $110B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.56 (bear case) to $24.27 (bull case); at $23.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at -16%, NLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($41.35) versus Asset-Based ($14.71). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 22 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in the residential mortgage finance business. The company invests in agency mortgage-backed securities collateralized by residential mortgages; non-agency residential whole loans and securitized products within the residential and commercial markets; mortgage servicing rights; agency …
Full company description
Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in the residential mortgage finance business. The company invests in agency mortgage-backed securities collateralized by residential mortgages; non-agency residential whole loans and securitized products within the residential and commercial markets; mortgage servicing rights; agency commercial mortgage-backed securities; to-be-announced forward contracts; residential mortgage-backed securities; residential mortgage loans; and agency or private label credit risk transfer securities. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT). As a REIT, it is not subject to federal income tax to the extent that it distributes its taxable income to its shareholders. Annaly Capital Management, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is based in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Annaly Capital Management, Inc reported revenue of $6.7B in FY2025 versus $751M in FY2021, a compound +72.8%/yr. Reported net income was $2.0B in FY2025, compounding −4.0%/yr from FY2021.
NLY screens 16% overvalued. Compare with AGNC Investment Corp →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Annaly (NLY) Upgraded to Buy: Here's Why
- Annaly Capital Management's EAD Topped Its Dividend for a 9th Straight Quarter. Here's Why That Matters for Its 12.5%+ Yielding Payout.
- Annaly Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Housing Finance Strategy
- Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Economic Return ...
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.56 | $12.03 | +14% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $16.52 | $14.93 | -10% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $9.12 | $20.75 | +128% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $16.69 | $14.84 | -11% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $12.60 | $7.67 | -39% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.13 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.37 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI | $6.76 | $13.56 | +101% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.26 | -4% |
| Ladder Capital Corp LADR | $9.77 | $7.68 | -21% |
Compare Annaly Capital Management, Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Real Estate stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Annaly Capital Management, Inc (NLY) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of NLY?
What is the quality score of NLY?
What is the revenue of Annaly Capital Management, Inc (NLY)?
What is the net profit margin of NLY?
Does Annaly Capital Management, Inc pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Annaly Capital Management, Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.