EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A BRL 26.74, price BRL 8.93, upside +199.4%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$3.55 – R$12.18 · fair‑value band R$20.06 – R$33.43 · the R$8.93 price screens below the R$26.74 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A. operates as an infrastructure company that operates highway concessions in Brazil. It operates Ecopátio Logística Cubatão, an intermodal logistics platform, which is the regulating site for trucks at the Port of Santos.
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EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A. operates as an infrastructure company that operates highway concessions in Brazil. It operates Ecopátio Logística Cubatão, an intermodal logistics platform, which is the regulating site for trucks at the Port of Santos. The company is also involved in the port operations and handling and storage of import and export cargo at the Port of Santos. The company was founded in 1997 and is based in São Paulo, Brazil. EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A. operates as a subsidiary of IGLI S.p.A.
Stock analysis
EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3) currently trades at R$8.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$26.74, implying the stock looks roughly 66.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$33.24 per share, and 11 of the 15 models we run sit above the R$8.93 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$3.95, and 4 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R$20.06 (bear) to R$33.43 (bull), the price of R$8.93 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A reported revenue of R$11.5B in FY2025 versus R$4.7B in FY2021, a compound +25.4%/yr. Reported net income was R$886M in FY2025, compounding +24.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$6.2B (≈ $1.2B) · P/E ratio 8.3 · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) R$1.07 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 7.7% · Return on equity 17.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 199%, ECOR3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$20.06Fair Value R$26.74Bull R$33.43
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.5639 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.8% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+30.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+27.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17% vs 10%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 35%
2025 sits 56% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Infrastructure Operations · 68 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)33% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity6.00× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)8.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.28× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ECOR3
Frequently asked questions
Is EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$26.74 versus a price of R$8.93, about +199% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ECOR3?
Our model-based fair value for EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A is R$26.74 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$8.93.
What is the quality score of ECOR3?
EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$26.74 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$20.06, optimistic scenario R$33.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$26.74, about +199% upside versus a price of R$8.93 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$20.06, optimistic scenario R$33.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3)?
EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$11.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A pay a dividend?
EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.38% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A it is R$26.74 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$8.93. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ECOR3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$8.93, fair value R$26.74, a gap of about +199% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ECOR3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$8.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$26.74). For EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A the two are R$17.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A worth?
The market values EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A at about R$6.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$8.93; our models calculate a fair value of R$26.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ECOR3?
Our models span a range for EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A: cautious scenario R$20.06, base R$26.74, optimistic R$33.43 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$8.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ECOR3?
EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$26.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 0.3, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 4.6.
What is the PEG ratio of ECOR3?
The PEG ratio of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A is 0.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3)?
Balance-sheet figures for EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.3%, debt of 6.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ECOR3 from its 52-week high?
EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A trades at R$8.93, about 27% below its 52-week high of R$12.18 and 52% above the low of R$5.87 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$26.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Transurban Group, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings, Jiangsu Expressway Company, Shandong Hi-speed Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$8.93, calculated fair value R$26.74 (+199%), Quality Score 37/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ECOR3 calculated?
We run EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$26.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A currently trades 199 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was R$8.93. Our model-based fair value is R$26.74, about +199% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$20.06). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3) come from?
Earnings per share at EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A grew +8.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.6 %, EBIT margin −0.1 %, tax rate −2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3)?
The market capitalisation of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A is R$6.2B (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A is 0.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3)?
Earnings per share at EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A are R$1.07 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3)?
The dividend yield of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A is 3.4% (payout 28.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3)?
The net margin of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A is 7.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A is 9.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3)?
The operating margin of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A is 32.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3)?
Revenue at EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A is growing +5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3)?
Earnings per share at EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A are growing −26.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3) generate?
The free cash flow of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A is −R$4.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A (ECOR3) carry?
The net debt of EcoRodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S.A is R$25.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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