El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd ILS 16.56, price ILS 19.30, upside -14.2%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1.62 ILA – 19.30 ILA · fair‑value band 12.05 ILA – 20.69 ILA · the 19.30 ILA price screens above the 16.56 ILA fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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El Al Israel Airlines Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo transportation services. It operates flights on passenger and cargo in countries in Europe, the United States, Asia, and Africa.
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El Al Israel Airlines Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo transportation services. It operates flights on passenger and cargo in countries in Europe, the United States, Asia, and Africa. The company offers aircraft maintenance services; sells duty-free products; produces and supplies food to airlines; security services to aviation; and operates a loyalty program. It also produces and supplies prepared kosher meals to airlines, cruise companies, and institutions. In addition, the company markets vacation packages. The company was incorporated in 1948 and is headquartered in Lod, Israel.
Stock analysis
El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL) currently trades at 19.30 ILA, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.56 ILA, 14.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 59.67 ILA per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the 19.30 ILA price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 3.63 ILA, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 12.05 ILA (bear) to 20.69 ILA (bull), the price of 19.30 ILA sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
El Al Israel Airlines Ltd reported revenue of $3.8B in FY2025 versus $857M in FY2021, a compound +44.7%/yr. Reported net income was $437M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 11.7B ILA · P/E ratio 12.4 · P/S ratio 1.44 · EPS (TTM) 1.56 ILA · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 11.6% · Return on equity 32.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at −14%, ELAL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 12.05 ILAFair Value 16.56 ILABull 20.69 ILA
Price 19.30 ILA · Upside -14.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.05 ILS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+48.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+47.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−59% → 17%
2025 sits 118% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 13.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−22.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −24.3% a year for the price.
Compare El Al Israel Airlines Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 57 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Above median
Fair Value upside−14.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)32.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)13.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth27.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "El Al Israel Airlines Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ELAL
Frequently asked questions
Is El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16.56 ILA versus a price of 19.30 ILA, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ELAL?
Our model-based fair value for El Al Israel Airlines Ltd is 16.56 ILA (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 19.30 ILA.
What is the quality score of ELAL?
El Al Israel Airlines Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16.56 ILA (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.05 ILA, optimistic scenario 20.69 ILA. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the El Al Israel Airlines Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16.56 ILA, about −14% upside versus a price of 19.30 ILA (overvalued). Cautious scenario 12.05 ILA, optimistic scenario 20.69 ILA. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
El Al Israel Airlines Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
Does El Al Israel Airlines Ltd pay a dividend?
El Al Israel Airlines Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.93% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, El Al Israel Airlines Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -22.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +43.3 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ELAL use?
Our models discount El Al Israel Airlines Ltd at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for Israel. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For El Al Israel Airlines Ltd that is -22.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at El Al Israel Airlines Ltd grew +43.3 % a year. The price currently implies -22.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (-22.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.87 %: that much free cash flow El Al Israel Airlines Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For El Al Israel Airlines Ltd it is 16.56 ILA per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of 19.30 ILA. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is El Al Israel Airlines Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, ELAL trades above its calculated fair value: price 19.30 ILA, fair value 16.56 ILA, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (19.30 ILA); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16.56 ILA). For El Al Israel Airlines Ltd the two are 2.74 ILA per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is El Al Israel Airlines Ltd worth?
The market values El Al Israel Airlines Ltd at about 11.7B ILA (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is 19.30 ILA; our models calculate a fair value of 16.56 ILA per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELAL?
Our models span a range for El Al Israel Airlines Ltd: cautious scenario 12.05 ILA, base 16.56 ILA, optimistic 20.69 ILA per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price 19.30 ILA). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ELAL?
El Al Israel Airlines Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 16.56 ILA is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.7, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
Balance-sheet figures for El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity 32.8%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELAL from its 52-week high?
El Al Israel Airlines Ltd trades at 19.30 ILA, at its 52-week high of 19.30 ILA and 59% above the low of 12.14 ILA (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16.56 ILA is for.
Which stocks are comparable to El Al Israel Airlines Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is El Al Israel Airlines Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price 19.30 ILA, calculated fair value 16.56 ILA (−14%), Quality Score 49/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELAL calculated?
We run El Al Israel Airlines Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 16.56 ILA, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. El Al Israel Airlines Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was 19.30 ILA. Our model-based fair value is 16.56 ILA, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with El Al Israel Airlines Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL) come from?
Earnings per share at El Al Israel Airlines Ltd grew −5.2 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −14.8 %, EBIT margin +11.4 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
The market capitalisation of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd is 11.7B ILA. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd is 1.44 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
Earnings per share at El Al Israel Airlines Ltd are 1.56 ILA (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
The dividend yield of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd is 0.9% (payout 11.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
The net margin of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd is 11.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd is 32.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
The operating margin of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd is 13.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
Revenue at El Al Israel Airlines Ltd is growing +27.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL)?
Earnings per share at El Al Israel Airlines Ltd are growing +91.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does El Al Israel Airlines Ltd (ELAL) carry?
The net debt of El Al Israel Airlines Ltd is $1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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