Elders Ltd (ELD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Elders Ltd A$4.92, price A$6.41, upside -23.2%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Elders Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$4.69 – A$11.72 · fair‑value band A$3.70 – A$6.16 · the A$6.41 price screens above the A$4.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow Elders in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Elders is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Elders Limited engages in the provision of agricultural products and services to rural and regional customers primarily in Australia. It operates through Branch Network, Wholesale Products, and Feed and Processing Services segments.
Show more
Elders Limited engages in the provision of agricultural products and services to rural and regional customers primarily in Australia. It operates through Branch Network, Wholesale Products, and Feed and Processing Services segments. The company supplies rural farm inputs, such as seeds, fertilizers, agricultural chemicals, animal health products, and general rural merchandise, as well as professional production and cropping advisory services; and provides retail services through corporate owned stores and through the Ag, Horse, and Pet brand names to independently owned member stores. The company also provides on-farm sales to third parties, regular physical, and online public livestock auctions, as well as directly sells through its owned and third-party feedlots and livestock exporters; agency services for the sale of greasy wool and grain; and brokering services for wool growers. In addition, it markets residential properties, agricultural land, lifestyle estates, and commercial real estate; residential property management and commercial asset management services; and water broking. Further, the company provides a range of banking and insurance products and services; and operates AuctionsPlus, an online livestock auction platform. Additionally, it is involved in grain-fed distribution, beef grass-fattening operations, cow manure processing, and irrigated corn production activities. The company was founded in 1839 and is headquartered in Adelaide, Australia.
Stock analysis
Elders Ltd (ELD) currently trades at A$6.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.92, implying the stock looks roughly 30.2% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$8.06 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$6.41 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$1.73, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$3.70 (bear) to A$6.16 (bull), the price of A$6.41 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Elders Ltd reported revenue of A$3.2B in FY2025 versus A$2.5B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$50.3M in FY2025, compounding −23.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$1.2B (≈ $834M) · P/E ratio 25.6 · P/S ratio 0.40 · EPS (TTM) A$0.2500 · Dividend yield 5.6% · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −23%, ELD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$3.70Fair Value A$4.92Bull A$6.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.8% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+6.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−19% vs −2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.3% a year for the price and +3.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 297 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−23% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth32% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Elders Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ELD
Frequently asked questions
Is Elders Ltd (ELD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$4.92 versus a price of A$6.41, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ELD?
Our model-based fair value for Elders Ltd is A$4.92 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$6.41.
What is the quality score of ELD?
Elders Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Elders Ltd (ELD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$4.92 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$3.70, optimistic scenario A$6.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Elders Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$4.92, about −23% upside versus a price of A$6.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$3.70, optimistic scenario A$6.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Elders Ltd (ELD)?
Elders Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$3.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Elders Ltd pay a dividend?
Elders Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.62% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Elders Ltd (ELD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Elders Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +3.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ELD use?
Our models discount Elders Ltd at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.26, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Elders Ltd that is +3.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Elders Ltd (ELD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Elders Ltd grew +8.8 % a year. The price currently implies +3.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Elders Ltd (ELD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Elders Ltd (+3.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Elders Ltd (ELD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.60 %: that much free cash flow Elders Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Elders Ltd (ELD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Elders Ltd it is A$4.92 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$6.41. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Elders Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ELD trades above its calculated fair value: price A$6.41, fair value A$4.92, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$6.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$4.92). For Elders Ltd the two are A$1.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Elders Ltd worth?
The market values Elders Ltd at about A$1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$6.41; our models calculate a fair value of A$4.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELD?
Our models span a range for Elders Ltd: cautious scenario A$3.70, base A$4.92, optimistic A$6.16 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$6.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ELD?
Elders Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$4.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/B 0.8, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
What is the PEG ratio of ELD?
The PEG ratio of Elders Ltd is 0.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Elders Ltd (ELD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Elders Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 5.2%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELD from its 52-week high?
Elders Ltd trades at A$6.41, about 14% below its 52-week high of A$7.46 and 28% above the low of A$5.00 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$4.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Elders Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Elders Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$6.41, calculated fair value A$4.92 (−23%), Quality Score 41/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELD calculated?
We run Elders Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$4.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Elders Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Elders Ltd (ELD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$6.41. Our model-based fair value is A$4.92, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Elders Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$6.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Elders Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Elders Ltd (ELD)?
The market capitalisation of Elders Ltd is A$1.2B (≈ $834M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Elders Ltd (ELD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Elders Ltd is 0.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Elders Ltd (ELD)?
Earnings per share at Elders Ltd are A$0.2500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Elders Ltd (ELD)?
The dividend yield of Elders Ltd is 5.6% (payout 144%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Elders Ltd (ELD)?
The net margin of Elders Ltd is 1.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Elders Ltd (ELD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Elders Ltd is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Elders Ltd (ELD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Elders Ltd is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Elders Ltd (ELD)?
The operating margin of Elders Ltd is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Elders Ltd (ELD)?
Revenue at Elders Ltd is growing +31.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Elders Ltd (ELD)?
Earnings per share at Elders Ltd are growing −0.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Elders Ltd (ELD) carry?
The net debt of Elders Ltd is A$547M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Elders Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Elders Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Some data
Sep 23, 2026