Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Embraer S.A. stock $222, price $74.08, upside +200.0%, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.02 – $79.53 · fair‑value band $166.68 – $279.51 · the $74.08 price screens below the $222.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and systems worldwide. The company operates through Commercial Aviation; Defense & Security; Executive Aviation; Services & Support; and Other segments.
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The Commercial Aviation segment develops, produces, and sells commercial jets.
The Defense & Security segment develops and produces military aircraft; and is involved in research and development of software and integrated information systems, communications, border monitoring and surveillance, space systems/satellites, and aircraft modernization services and services support, as well as command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems.
The Executive Aviation segment develops, produces, and sells executive jets. The Service & Support segment provides field and technical support, flight operations solutions, aircraft modification, materials management, maintenance solutions, and training programs.
The Other segment engages in the supply of structural parts and hydraulic systems; production of agricultural crop-spraying aircraft; development and certification of eVTOLs; creation of a maintenance and service network, and air traffic control system for eVTOLs; development and manufacture of electrical propulsion systems; cybersecurity; and software and technical products.
Additionally, the company is involved in leasing of used aircraft; pilot, mechanic, and crew training; engineering services; retail trade, maintenance, and repair of computer products; information technology consulting, data processing, application service providers, and internet hosting; and fabrication of aircraft interiors.
The company was formerly known as Embraer-Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica S.A. and changed its name to Embraer S.A. in November 2010. Embraer S.A. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) currently trades at $74.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $222.24, implying the stock looks roughly 67% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $386.03 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the $74.08 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $165.01, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $166.68 (bear) to $279.51 (bull), the price of $74.08 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Embraer S.A. reported revenue of R$41.5B in FY2025 versus R$22.7B in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.9B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $13.2B Large · P/E ratio 30.0 · P/S ratio 1.39 · EPS (TTM) $2.47 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 12.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 200%, EMBJ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$166.68Fair Value $222.24Bull$279.51
Price $74.08 · Upside +200.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.00 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+34.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → 8%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in BRL, Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.9% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Embraer benefits from order momentum with fuel-efficient E2 jets that support route expansion, yet its main weakness is the absence of clear evidence for a durable competitive advantage amid limited operational disclosures.
Main risk: A loss of orders or financial difficulties at major customers such as American Airlines group regionals or Azul could sharply reduce commercial aviation sales and backlog conversion.
Bull case: Embraer could expand defense and executive jet segments while securing more diverse international commercial orders and partnering to ease supplier risks, sustaining growth despite US market limits.
Bear case: Persistent customer concentration combined with blocked access to the US regional market and supplier disruptions could stall commercial production ramp-up and limit overall revenue growth for years.
Embraer has begun delivering the first E195-E2 to LATAM Airlines Brazil, the start of 12 units this year under an order for up to 74. These jets deliver up to 30 percent better fuel efficiency than earlier models and support expansion to new domestic routes. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will order momentum and production leveling efforts outweigh ongoing supply chain constraints?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.2% · Above median
Return on assets2.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)5.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)13.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.73× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)30.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B3.84× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.64× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)34.3× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Embraer S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EMBJ
Frequently asked questions
Is Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $222.24 versus a price of $74.08, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EMBJ?
Our model-based fair value for Embraer S.A. is $222.24 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $74.08.
What is the quality score of EMBJ?
Embraer S.A. has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $222.24 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $166.68, optimistic scenario $279.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Embraer S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $222.24, about +200% upside versus a price of $74.08 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $166.68, optimistic scenario $279.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
Embraer S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$44.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Embraer S.A. pay a dividend?
Embraer S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.18% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Embraer S.A. pays a dividend of $0.13 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 23, 2026. The payout ratio is 6.6% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 16.60 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Embraer S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +15.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.2 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EMBJ use?
Our models discount Embraer S.A. at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Embraer S.A. that is +15.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Embraer S.A. grew +16.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +15.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Embraer S.A. (+15.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.92 %: that much free cash flow Embraer S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Embraer S.A. it is $222.24 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $74.08. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Embraer S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, EMBJ trades below its calculated fair value: price $74.08, fair value $222.24, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EMBJ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($74.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($222.24). For Embraer S.A. the two are $148.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Embraer S.A. worth?
The market values Embraer S.A. at about $13.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $74.08; our models calculate a fair value of $222.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EMBJ?
Our models span a range for Embraer S.A.: cautious scenario $166.68, base $222.24, optimistic $279.51 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $74.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EMBJ?
Embraer S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.0 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $222.24 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 28.2, P/B 3.8, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 15.9.
What is the PEG ratio of EMBJ?
The PEG ratio of Embraer S.A. is 28.22 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Embraer S.A. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 12.2%, debt of 0.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EMBJ from its 52-week high?
Embraer S.A. trades at $74.08, about 7% below its 52-week high of $79.53 and 38% above the low of $53.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $222.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Embraer S.A.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Embraer S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $74.08, calculated fair value $222.24 (+200%), Quality Score 51/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EMBJ calculated?
We run Embraer S.A. through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $222.24 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Embraer S.A. currently trades 67% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $74.08. Our model-based fair value is $222.24, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Embraer S.A. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($166.68). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) come from?
Earnings per share at Embraer S.A. grew +12.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.8 %, EBIT margin +3.1 %, tax rate +5.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Embraer S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
The market capitalisation of Embraer S.A. is $13.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Embraer S.A. is 1.39 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
Earnings per share at Embraer S.A. are $2.47 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
The dividend yield of Embraer S.A. is 0.2% (payout 5.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
The net margin of Embraer S.A. is 4.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Embraer S.A. is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Embraer S.A. is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
The operating margin of Embraer S.A. is 13.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
Revenue at Embraer S.A. is growing +10.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
Earnings per share at Embraer S.A. are growing +114% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) carry?
The net debt of Embraer S.A. is R$4.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 4, 2026