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Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Embraer S.A. $62.94, price $75.43, upside -16.6%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · ISIN US29082A1079

ES Embraer S.A. logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Embraer S.A.

EMBJ · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $62.94 · Overvalued (−17%)
!Quality 47/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +61.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·0.95% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Narrow moat 39/100
!Weak on valuation: 11 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 19 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$79.53 $8.02 Fair Value $62.94 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $8.02 – $79.53 · fair‑value band $42.33 – $81.82 · the $75.43 price screens above the $62.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and systems worldwide. The company operates through Commercial Aviation; Defense & Security; Executive Aviation; Services & Support; and Other segments. The Commercial Aviation segment develops, produces, and sells commercial jets.

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Embraer S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of aircraft and systems worldwide. The company operates through Commercial Aviation; Defense & Security; Executive Aviation; Services & Support; and Other segments. The Commercial Aviation segment develops, produces, and sells commercial jets. The Defense & Security segment develops and produces military aircraft; and is involved in research and development of software and integrated information systems, communications, border monitoring and surveillance, space systems/satellites, and aircraft modernization services and services support, as well as command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems. The Executive Aviation segment develops, produces, and sells executive jets. The Service & Support segment provides field and technical support, flight operations solutions, aircraft modification, materials management, maintenance solutions, and training programs. The Other segment engages in the supply of structural parts and hydraulic systems; production of agricultural crop-spraying aircraft; development and certification of eVTOLs; creation of a maintenance and service network, and air traffic control system for eVTOLs; development and manufacture of electrical propulsion systems; cybersecurity; and software and technical products. Additionally, the company is involved in leasing of used aircraft; pilot, mechanic, and crew training; engineering services; retail trade, maintenance, and repair of computer products; information technology consulting, data processing, application service providers, and internet hosting; and fabrication of aircraft interiors. The company was formerly known as Embraer-Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica S.A. and changed its name to Embraer S.A. in November 2010. Embraer S.A. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

Stock analysis

Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) currently trades at $75.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $62.94, implying the stock looks roughly 19.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $430.64 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the $75.43 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $11.69, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $42.33 (bear) to $81.82 (bull), the price of $75.43 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Embraer S.A. reported revenue of R$41.5B in FY2025 versus R$4.2B in FY2021, a compound +77.3%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.9B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $13.8B · P/E ratio 44.1 · P/S ratio 2.05 · EPS (TTM) $1.71 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −17%, EMBJ screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $42.33 Fair Value $62.94 Bull $81.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7271 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $271.88 $442.28 $975.27 75
EPV $143.59 $170.34 $193.75 74
Growth DCF $255.30 $493.66 $970.88 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $271.88 $442.28 $975.27 75
Owner Earnings $130.32 $318.17 $712.51 70
5Y Revenue Exit $194.31 $356.05 $680.54 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $251.04 $474.97 $897.30 71
5Y P/E Exit $185.55 $393.62 $664.87 68
10Y Revenue Exit $209.15 $448.26 $661.07 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $257.11 $562.45 $1,137 64
10Y P/E Exit $210.21 $430.64 $813.44 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $73.65 $513.60 $720.76 63
Lynch FV $170.05 $242.93 $315.80 61
PEG = 1.0 $170.05 $242.93 $315.80 57
EPV $143.59 $170.34 $193.75 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $6.67 $13.87 $22.00 66
DDM Multi-Stage $6.67 $11.69 $14.55 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $170.58 $227.44 $284.30 63
P/S Multiple $138.09 $184.12 $230.15 58
P/B Multiple $138.09 $184.12 $230.15 55
EV/EBIT $221.84 $301.44 $381.03 66
EV/EBITDA $243.53 $330.35 $417.17 67
EV/Revenue $153.49 $226.53 $299.56 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $53.01 $71.03 $106.02 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $255.30 $493.66 $970.88 74
Rev-Margin DCF $194.31 $402.77 $724.71 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income $93.35 $104.59 $193.05 73
ROIC Compounder $175.86 $265.08 $334.13 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $224.89 $321.27 $417.65 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 25
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 74
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 76
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+549.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+109.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+61.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8.6% (2020) → 8.0% (2025)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in BRL, Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.4% a year for the price.

EMBJ screens 20% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 230 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −17% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 18% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.73× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 44.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.73× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.32× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 6.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.0× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 28.22× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)11 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)92 · sector 46
PAST (return on equity)35 · sector 37
HEALTH (low debt)64 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)19 · sector 17

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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General Electric Company GE $319.22 $92.68 −71%
RTX Corporation RTX $190.99 $88.37 −54%
Airbus SE AIR €194.60 €112.75 −42%
Safran SA SAF €332.00 €365.20 +10%
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $522.34 $440.05 −16%
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $225.36 $52.47 −77%
General Dynamics Corporation GD $343.39 $274.32 −20%
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $509.86 $383.06 −25%
TransDigm Group TDG $1,112 $1,224 +10%
L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX $239.89 $263.88 +10%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Embraer S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EMBJ

Frequently asked questions

Is Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $62.94 versus a price of $75.43, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EMBJ?
Our model-based fair value for Embraer S.A. is $62.94 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $75.43.
What is the quality score of EMBJ?
Embraer S.A. has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $62.94 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $42.33, optimistic scenario $81.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Embraer S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $62.94, about −17% upside versus a price of $75.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $42.33, optimistic scenario $81.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
Embraer S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$43.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Embraer S.A. pay a dividend?
Embraer S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.95% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Embraer S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +16.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +61.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EMBJ use?
Our models discount Embraer S.A. at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Embraer S.A. that is +16.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Embraer S.A. grew +61.6 % a year. The price currently implies +16.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Embraer S.A. (+16.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.96 %: that much free cash flow Embraer S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Embraer S.A. it is $62.94 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $75.43. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Embraer S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, EMBJ trades above its calculated fair value: price $75.43, fair value $62.94, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EMBJ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($75.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($62.94). For Embraer S.A. the two are $12.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Embraer S.A. worth?
The market values Embraer S.A. at about $13.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $75.43; our models calculate a fair value of $62.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EMBJ?
Our models span a range for Embraer S.A.: cautious scenario $42.33, base $62.94, optimistic $81.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $75.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EMBJ?
Embraer S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $62.94 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 28.2, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.0.
What is the PEG ratio of EMBJ?
The PEG ratio of Embraer S.A. is 28.22 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Embraer S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.8%, debt of 0.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EMBJ from its 52-week high?
Embraer S.A. trades at $75.43, about 5% below its 52-week high of $79.53 and 40% above the low of $53.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $62.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Embraer S.A.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Embraer S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $75.43, calculated fair value $62.94 (−17%), Quality Score 47/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EMBJ calculated?
We run Embraer S.A. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $62.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Embraer S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $75.43. Our model-based fair value is $62.94, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Embraer S.A. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($42.33 to $81.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Embraer S.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
The market capitalisation of Embraer S.A. is $13.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Embraer S.A. is 2.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
Earnings per share at Embraer S.A. are $1.71 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
The dividend yield of Embraer S.A. is 0.9% (payout 41.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
The net margin of Embraer S.A. is 4.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Embraer S.A. is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Embraer S.A. is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
The operating margin of Embraer S.A. is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
Revenue at Embraer S.A. is growing +18.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +109%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)?
Earnings per share at Embraer S.A. are growing −58.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Embraer S.A. (EMBJ) carry?
The net debt of Embraer S.A. is R$4.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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