Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS stock TRY 18.10, price TRY 31.22, upside -42.0%, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 6.80 TRY – 44.20 TRY · fair‑value band 11.94 TRY – 23.84 TRY · the 31.22 TRY price screens above the 18.10 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Eregli Demir ve Çelik Fabrikalari T.A.S., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells iron and steel rolled products, alloyed and non-alloyed iron, cast and pressed steel, coke, and by-products in Turkey and internationally.
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The company offers flat steel products, including hot and cold rolled flat steel, plate, tin, chrome, and galvanized coated sheets.
It also engages in the production of integrated and electrical steel; renewable energy generation; industrial gas production and sale; pellets; iron and magnesite ores; refractory; trading; recycling; and special purpose business.
In addition, the company offers after-sales, laboratory and calibration, steel service center, and port services; and management and consulting services. Further, it exports its products.
The company serves the automotive, white goods, tube mills, rolling mills, general manufacturing, electric&electronics, machinery, energy, heating equipment, shipbuilding, defense, packaging, and renewable energy industries.
Eregli Demir ve Çelik Fabrikalari T.A.S. was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL) currently trades at 31.22 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 18.10 TRY, 42.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 32.33 TRY per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the 31.22 TRY price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 4.00 TRY, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 11.94 TRY (bear) to 23.84 TRY (bull), the price of 31.22 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS reported revenue of 209B TRL in FY2025 versus 68.2B TRL in FY2021, a compound +32.3%/yr. Reported net income was 512M TRL in FY2025, compounding −57.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 210B TRY (≈ $4.2B) Mid · P/E ratio 23.0 · P/S ratio 1.11 · EPS (TTM) 1.36 TRY · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −42%, EREGL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear11.94 TRYFair Value 18.10 TRYBull23.84 TRY
Price 31.22 TRY · Upside -42.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.6724 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +33.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−27.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−38.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−40.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 4%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −23.2% a year for the price and −1.2% for the forecasts.
Compare Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 397 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−42.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.0% · Below median
Return on assets0.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)4.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)34.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)23.0× · Pricier than median
P/B0.73× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.11× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow5.7× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.8× · Pricier than median
PEG0.89× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)12· sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)80· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)35· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EREGL
Frequently asked questions
Is Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 18.10 TRY versus a price of 31.22 TRY, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EREGL?
Our model-based fair value for Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS is 18.10 TRY (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 31.22 TRY.
What is the quality score of EREGL?
Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 18.10 TRY (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 11.94 TRY, optimistic scenario 23.84 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 18.10 TRY, about −42% upside versus a price of 31.22 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 11.94 TRY, optimistic scenario 23.84 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 257B TRY (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
Does Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS pay a dividend?
Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS currently shows a dividend yield of 1.76% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS would have to grow free cash flow by -8.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +45.6 % per year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EREGL use?
Our models discount Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS at 14.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS that is -8.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS grew +45.6 % a year. The price currently implies -8.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (-8.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.69 %: that much free cash flow Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS it is 18.10 TRY per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of 31.22 TRY. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, EREGL trades above its calculated fair value: price 31.22 TRY, fair value 18.10 TRY, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EREGL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (31.22 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (18.10 TRY). For Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS the two are 13.12 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS worth?
The market values Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS at about 210B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is 31.22 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 18.10 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EREGL?
Our models span a range for Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS: cautious scenario 11.94 TRY, base 18.10 TRY, optimistic 23.84 TRY per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price 31.22 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EREGL?
Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.0 (as of Oct 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 18.10 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 0.7, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 10.8.
What is the PEG ratio of EREGL?
The PEG ratio of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS is 0.89 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity 3.0%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EREGL from its 52-week high?
Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS trades at 31.22 TRY, about 29% below its 52-week high of 44.20 TRY and 34% above the low of 23.32 TRY (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 18.10 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price 31.22 TRY, calculated fair value 18.10 TRY (−42%), Quality Score 37/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EREGL calculated?
We run Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 18.10 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 31.22 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 18.10 TRY, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (23.84 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (11.94 TRY to 23.84 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS
How large is the market capitalisation of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
The market capitalisation of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS is 210B TRY (≈ $4.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS is 1.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
Earnings per share at Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS are 1.36 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
The dividend yield of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS is 1.8% (payout 40.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
The net margin of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS is 3.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
The operating margin of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
Revenue at Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS is growing +34.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL)?
Earnings per share at Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS are growing +239% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS (EREGL) carry?
The net debt of Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS is 41.5B TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 29, 2026