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Etherstack Plc (ESK) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Etherstack Plc A$0.46, price A$0.57, upside -19.3%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · AU · ISIN AU000000ESK6

EP Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Etherstack Plc

ESK · AU

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value A$0.4600 · Overvalued (−19%)
✓Quality 65/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +27.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -6.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/11)
!Narrow moat 14/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 8 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.7600 A$0.1100 Fair Value A$0.4600 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.1100 – A$0.7600 · fair‑value band A$0.3000 – A$0.6800 · the A$0.5700 price screens above the A$0.4600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Etherstack plc, a wireless technology company, engages in the development, manufacture, licensing, and sale of mission critical radio technologies to equipment manufacturers and network operators in the United Kingdom, the United States, Europe, Japan, and Australia.

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Etherstack plc, a wireless technology company, engages in the development, manufacture, licensing, and sale of mission critical radio technologies to equipment manufacturers and network operators in the United Kingdom, the United States, Europe, Japan, and Australia. The company's technology enables push-to-talk communications; and advanced digital land mobile radio (LMR) and cellular and satellite networks. It offers a range of cryptographic solutions, including P25 security suite, which unites AES/DES P25 encryption engine with P25 key fill device support for complete P25 subscriber encryption; P25 key management facility; P25 security dongles; and FIPS 140-2 cryptographic module, a single-board security device that implements APCO P25 encryption, decryption, and key management and storage services in conformance with FIPS140-2 standards. It also designs, develops, supplies, and licenses wireless air interface protocol stacks for third-party defence and critical communications radio manufacturers. In addition, the company offers LTE interworking function for LMR; LMR protocol stacks; and LMR voice and data systems. Further, it provides tactical and satellite solutions, such as P25 tactical repeater, which is a compact, battery-powered, and rapidly deployable analog for stand-alone or network augmentation use; and IVX, a small form factor push-to-talk over IP radio for encrypted voice and data communications. The company serves carrier, defense, public safety, utilities, and resource sectors. The company was formerly known as MM&S (5698) plc and changed its name to Etherstack plc in May 2012. Etherstack plc was founded in 2002 and is based in Chippendale, Australia.

Stock analysis

Etherstack Plc (ESK) currently trades at A$0.5700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.4600, implying the stock looks roughly 23.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$0.2900 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the A$0.5700 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0600, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: A$0.3000 (bear) to A$0.6800 (bull), the price of A$0.5700 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Etherstack Plc reported revenue of $15.6M in FY2025 versus $8.5M in FY2021, a compound +16.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$75.5M (≈ $52.9M) · P/S ratio 7.44 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Net margin −6.9% · Return on equity −9.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.9% · Operating margin −42.9% · Revenue (TTM) $10.1M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −19%, ESK screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.3000 Fair Value A$0.4600 Bull A$0.6800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF A$0.2000 A$0.3000 A$0.4400 80
Growth DCF A$0.2000 A$0.2800 A$0.4000 79
Owner Earnings A$0.0700 A$0.1100 A$0.1600 76
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF A$0.2000 A$0.3000 A$0.4400 80
Owner Earnings A$0.0700 A$0.1100 A$0.1600 76
5Y Revenue Exit A$0.1800 A$0.2900 A$0.4400 72
5Y EBITDA Exit A$0.2400 A$0.4100 A$0.6100 74
10Y Revenue Exit A$0.1800 A$0.2800 A$0.4100 66
10Y EBITDA Exit A$0.2200 A$0.3500 A$0.5400 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA A$0.3000 A$0.4000 A$0.5000 67
EV/Revenue A$0.1800 A$0.2500 A$0.3300 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0500 A$0.0600 A$0.1000 53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF A$0.2000 A$0.2800 A$0.4000 79
Rev-Margin DCF A$0.1800 A$0.2900 A$0.4300 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 70
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 80
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+74.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−15.7% (2020) → −4.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.9% a year for the price.

ESK screens 24% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 720 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 65 · Above median
Fair Value upside −19% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −43% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 50% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.18× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.88× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 5.25× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 19.7× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)8 · sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)91 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €184.18 €159.06 −14%
Shopify Inc SHOP $142.34 $64.36 −55%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $69.89 $104.82 +50%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $233.28 $344.41 +48%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $140.78 $154.86 +10%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $309.09 $225.14 −27%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $334.81 $75.08 −78%
Datadog, Inc DDOG $251.49 $32.92 −87%
Adobe Inc ADBE $238.25 $454.04 +91%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $263.68 $177.51 −33%

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A$0.4600 −24%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Etherstack Plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ESK

Frequently asked questions

Is Etherstack Plc (ESK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.4600 versus a price of A$0.5700, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ESK?
Our model-based fair value for Etherstack Plc is A$0.4600 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.5700.
What is the quality score of ESK?
Etherstack Plc has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Etherstack Plc (ESK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.4600 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.3000, optimistic scenario A$0.6800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Etherstack Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.4600, about −19% upside versus a price of A$0.5700 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.3000, optimistic scenario A$0.6800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Etherstack Plc (ESK)?
Etherstack Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Etherstack Plc (ESK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Etherstack Plc would have to grow free cash flow by +13.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ESK use?
Our models discount Etherstack Plc at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Etherstack Plc that is +13.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Etherstack Plc (ESK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Etherstack Plc grew +27.2 % a year. The price currently implies +13.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Etherstack Plc (ESK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Etherstack Plc (+13.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Etherstack Plc (ESK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.08 %: that much free cash flow Etherstack Plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Etherstack Plc (ESK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Etherstack Plc it is A$0.4600 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.5700. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Etherstack Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ESK trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.5700, fair value A$0.4600, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ESK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.5700); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.4600). For Etherstack Plc the two are A$0.1100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Etherstack Plc worth?
The market values Etherstack Plc at about A$75.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.5700; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.4600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ESK?
Our models span a range for Etherstack Plc: cautious scenario A$0.3000, base A$0.4600, optimistic A$0.6800 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.5700). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Etherstack Plc (ESK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Etherstack Plc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −9.1%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ESK from its 52-week high?
Etherstack Plc trades at A$0.5700, about 25% below its 52-week high of A$0.7600 and 58% above the low of A$0.3600 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.4600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Etherstack Plc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Etherstack Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.5700, calculated fair value A$0.4600 (−19%), Quality Score 65/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ESK calculated?
We run Etherstack Plc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.4600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Etherstack Plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Etherstack Plc (ESK)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.5700. Our model-based fair value is A$0.4600, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Etherstack Plc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$0.3000 to A$0.6800) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Etherstack Plc

How large is the market capitalisation of Etherstack Plc (ESK)?
The market capitalisation of Etherstack Plc is A$75.5M (≈ $52.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Etherstack Plc (ESK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Etherstack Plc is 7.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Etherstack Plc (ESK)?
Earnings per share at Etherstack Plc are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Etherstack Plc (ESK)?
The net margin of Etherstack Plc is −6.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Etherstack Plc (ESK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Etherstack Plc is −9.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Etherstack Plc (ESK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Etherstack Plc is −0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Etherstack Plc (ESK)?
The operating margin of Etherstack Plc is −42.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Etherstack Plc (ESK)?
Revenue at Etherstack Plc is growing +50.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Etherstack Plc (ESK)?
Earnings per share at Etherstack Plc are growing +247% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Etherstack Plc (ESK) carry?
The net debt of Etherstack Plc is $1.8M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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