Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $35.2B
Elbit Systems Ltd
ESLT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $239.60 to $235.13 (−1.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +10.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 73% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($295.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $118.42 – $1,012 · fair‑value band $165.73 – $295.67 · the $857.00 price screens above the $235.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT) currently trades at $857.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $235.13, implying the stock looks roughly 72.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Elbit Systems Ltd generated revenue of $8.2B at a net margin of 7.1%. Revenue grew 15.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.6%. Net debt stands at $330M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $165.73 (bear case) to $295.67 (bull case); at $857.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 111% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -55% fair-value upside, at -73%, ESLT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($259.76) versus Dividend Discount ($41.54). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Elbit Systems Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and supplies defense and homeland security arenas products and services in Israel, North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and internationally.
Full company description
Elbit Systems Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and supplies defense and homeland security arenas products and services in Israel, North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Aerospace; C4I and Cyber; Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance and Electronic Warfare; Land; and Elbit Systems of America. It offers airborne platforms, unmanned aerial solutions, precision guided munition sensors, aerostructures, training and simulator systems, flight academy solutions, and commercial aviation systems; and command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems, as well as data links and radio communication systems and equipment, cyber intelligence solutions, and autonomous and homeland security solutions. The company also provides various electro-optic laser solutions and countermeasure systems and products, naval combat management and sonar systems, and electronic warfare, signal Intelligence, and radar systems; indirect fire, turrets and weapons, ammunition and munition, and active protection systems; and products, system solutions, and support services to defense, homeland security, law enforcement, commercial aviation, and medical instrumentation markets. It serves various governments and companies. The company was incorporated in 1966 and is based in Haifa, Israel.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Elbit Systems Ltd reported revenue of $7.9B in FY2025 versus $5.3B in FY2021, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was $534M in FY2025, compounding +18.1%/yr from FY2021.
ESLT screens 73% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Elbit Systems Win $370 Mln Contracts From U.S. Customs & Border Protection
- Elbit Systems of America Awarded Contracts from U.S. Customs and Border Protection Totaling Over $370 Million to Enhance U.S. National Secur
- Elbit Systems to Report Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on August 11, 2026
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €206.30 | €92.85 | -55% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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