Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Elbit Systems Ltd stock $235, price $780, that is 69.9% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $124.93 – $1,010 · fair‑value band $170.21 – $295.57 · the $779.68 price screens above the $235.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Elbit Systems Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and supplies defense and homeland security arenas products and services in Israel, North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and internationally.
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The company operates through five segments: Aerospace; C4I and Cyber; Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance and Electronic Warfare; Land; and Elbit Systems of America.
It offers airborne platforms, unmanned aerial solutions, precision guided munition sensors, aerostructures, training and simulator systems, flight academy solutions, and commercial aviation systems; and command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems, as well as data links and radio communication systems and equipment, cyber intelligence solutions, and autonomous and homeland security solutions.
The company also provides various electro-optic laser solutions and countermeasure systems and products, naval combat management and sonar systems, and electronic warfare, signal Intelligence, and radar systems; indirect fire, turrets and weapons, ammunition and munition, and active protection systems; and products, system solutions, and support services to defense, homeland security, law enforcement, commercial aviation, and medical instrumentation markets.
It serves various governments and companies. The company was incorporated in 1966 and is based in Haifa, Israel.
Stock analysis
Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT) currently trades at $779.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $235.05, 69.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $270.04 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $779.68 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $33.00, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $170.21 (bear) to $295.57 (bull), the price of $779.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Elbit Systems Ltd reported revenue of $7.9B in FY2025 versus $5.3B in FY2021, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was $534M in FY2025, compounding +18.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $37.5B Large · P/E ratio 58.7 · P/S ratio 4.39 · EPS (TTM) $13.29 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 15.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −70%, ESLT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$170.21Fair Value $235.05Bull$295.57
Price $779.68 · Downside -69.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($8.00 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.8% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+8.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.2% vs 9.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 9%
2025 sits 84% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.7% a year for the price and +8.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat signals from defense tech positioning and contract stability are offset by average margins and low ROA as the main weakness.
Main risk: Government pricing pressure on defense contracts is the biggest risk and would hit margins and contract stability.
Elbit has rebranded its US operations as Twenty-Six Defense to emphasize domestic design, engineering and manufacturing for American customers. The subsidiary stays fully owned by the Israeli parent and operates under a special security agreement. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued relative to the business quality. Does the sharper US focus reduce execution risks or create new frictions with the parent’s global priorities?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−69.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.2% · Above median
Return on assets4.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)9.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)58.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B9.08× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.39× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow62.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA37.8× · Priciest 25%
PEG8.79× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)80· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)61· sector 40
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Elbit Systems Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ESLT
Frequently asked questions
Is Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $235.05 versus a price of $779.68, about 70% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ESLT?
Our model-based fair value for Elbit Systems Ltd is $235.05 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $779.68.
What is the quality score of ESLT?
Elbit Systems Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $235.05 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $170.21, optimistic scenario $295.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Elbit Systems Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $235.05, about 70% lower versus a price of $779.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $170.21, optimistic scenario $295.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
Elbit Systems Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Elbit Systems Ltd pay a dividend?
Elbit Systems Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.48% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Elbit Systems Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +29.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.2 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ESLT use?
Our models discount Elbit Systems Ltd at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Elbit Systems Ltd that is +29.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Elbit Systems Ltd grew +11.2 % a year. The price currently implies +29.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Elbit Systems Ltd (+29.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.59 %: that much free cash flow Elbit Systems Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Elbit Systems Ltd it is $235.05 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $779.68. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Elbit Systems Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, ESLT trades above its calculated fair value: price $779.68, fair value $235.05, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ESLT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($779.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($235.05). For Elbit Systems Ltd the two are $544.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Elbit Systems Ltd worth?
The market values Elbit Systems Ltd at about $37.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $779.68; our models calculate a fair value of $235.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ESLT?
Our models span a range for Elbit Systems Ltd: cautious scenario $170.21, base $235.05, optimistic $295.57 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $779.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ESLT?
Elbit Systems Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 58.7 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $235.05 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 27.4. Other multiples: PEG 8.8, P/B 9.1, P/S 4.4, EV/EBITDA 37.8.
What is the PEG ratio of ESLT?
The PEG ratio of Elbit Systems Ltd is 8.79 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Elbit Systems Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 15.2%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ESLT from its 52-week high?
Elbit Systems Ltd trades at $779.68, about 23% below its 52-week high of $1,010 and 72% above the low of $452.56 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $235.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Elbit Systems Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Elbit Systems Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $779.68, calculated fair value $235.05 (−70%), Quality Score 54/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ESLT calculated?
We run Elbit Systems Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $235.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Elbit Systems Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $779.68. Our model-based fair value is $235.05, about 70% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Elbit Systems Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($295.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT) come from?
Earnings per share at Elbit Systems Ltd grew +5.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.5 %, EBIT margin −1.7 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Elbit Systems Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
The market capitalisation of Elbit Systems Ltd is $37.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Elbit Systems Ltd is 4.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
Earnings per share at Elbit Systems Ltd are $13.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 58.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
The dividend yield of Elbit Systems Ltd is 0.5% (payout 28.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
The net margin of Elbit Systems Ltd is 7.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Elbit Systems Ltd is 15.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Elbit Systems Ltd is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
The operating margin of Elbit Systems Ltd is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
Revenue at Elbit Systems Ltd is growing +15.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
Earnings per share at Elbit Systems Ltd are growing +34.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT) carry?
The net debt of Elbit Systems Ltd is $330M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026