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Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk IDR 655, price IDR 610, upside +7.3%, quality 73 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · ID · ISIN ID1000122203

SE Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk

ESSA · JK

NeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value 654.50 IDR · Fairly valued (+7%)
✓Quality 73/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −3.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 15.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/14)
✓Wide moat 70/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

1,285 IDR 237.53 IDR Fair Value 654.50 IDR Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 237.53 IDR – 1,285 IDR · fair‑value band 490.88 IDR – 818.12 IDR · the 610.00 IDR price screens below the 654.50 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

PT ESSA Industries Indonesia Tbk., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) refinery in Indonesia. It operates through the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Processing Fee, Ammonia, and Others segments.

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PT ESSA Industries Indonesia Tbk., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) refinery in Indonesia. It operates through the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Processing Fee, Ammonia, and Others segments. The company offers ammonia used as a raw material for fertilizer production, explosives, dyes, household cleaners, and nylon. It also provides LPG primarily for use as a kitchen appliance fuel for homes, shopping centers, and hotels; ammonia plant; and motor vehicle fuel, as well as for construction industries, such as welding fuel in steel workshops; and condensate for use as a raw material for thinner, adhesive, and vehicle tire applications, as well as light naphtha, which is a cracker material for the manufacture of polyethylene. In addition, the company offers management and business consulting services; industrial products from oil refineries; and raw feed gas through pipelines, as well as organic basic chemical industry sourced from agricultural products. Further, the company engages in the procurement and distribution of natural and artificial gas; oil mining; trade of solid, liquid, and gas fuels; and supporting activities of oil and other natural gas mining. The company was formerly known as PT Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk and changed its name to PT ESSA Industries Indonesia Tbk. in October 2023. PT ESSA Industries Indonesia Tbk. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Stock analysis

Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA) currently trades at 610.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 654.50 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 6.8% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 763.58 IDR per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the 610.00 IDR price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 218.17 IDR, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 490.88 IDR (bear) to 818.12 IDR (bull), the price of 610.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk reported revenue of $291M in FY2025 versus $303M in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was $39.8M in FY2025, compounding +29.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 10.5T IDR (≈ $1.1B) · P/E ratio 11.4 · P/S ratio 1.56 · EPS (TTM) 53.35 IDR · Net margin 13.7% · Return on equity 12.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.4% · Operating margin 35.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 7%, ESSA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 490.88 IDR Fair Value 654.50 IDR Bull 818.12 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (38.95 IDR per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 872.67 IDR 1,418 IDR 2,509 IDR 75
EPV 436.33 IDR 436.33 IDR 545.42 IDR 74
Growth DCF 872.67 IDR 1,418 IDR 2,400 IDR 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 872.67 IDR 1,418 IDR 2,509 IDR 75
Owner Earnings 763.58 IDR 1,309 IDR 2,182 IDR 72
5Y Revenue Exit 436.33 IDR 545.42 IDR 763.58 IDR 71
5Y EBITDA Exit 545.42 IDR 763.58 IDR 1,091 IDR 73
5Y P/E Exit 545.42 IDR 654.50 IDR 872.67 IDR 70
10Y Revenue Exit 545.42 IDR 763.58 IDR 981.75 IDR 66
10Y EBITDA Exit 654.50 IDR 872.67 IDR 1,200 IDR 67
10Y P/E Exit 654.50 IDR 872.67 IDR 1,091 IDR 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 218.17 IDR 654.50 IDR 872.67 IDR 63
Lynch FV 109.08 IDR 218.17 IDR 327.25 IDR 57
PEG = 1.0 109.08 IDR 218.17 IDR 327.25 IDR 53
EPV 436.33 IDR 436.33 IDR 545.42 IDR 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple 218.17 IDR 327.25 IDR 436.33 IDR 62
P/S Multiple 218.17 IDR 218.17 IDR 327.25 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 327.25 IDR 436.33 IDR 545.42 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 436.33 IDR 545.42 IDR 654.50 IDR 66
EV/EBITDA 436.33 IDR 545.42 IDR 654.50 IDR 67
EV/Revenue 218.17 IDR 327.25 IDR 327.25 IDR 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 109.08 IDR 218.17 IDR 327.25 IDR 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 872.67 IDR 1,418 IDR 2,400 IDR 74
Rev-Margin DCF 436.33 IDR 545.42 IDR 763.58 IDR 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income 218.17 IDR 218.17 IDR 436.33 IDR 71
ROIC Compounder 436.33 IDR 545.42 IDR 763.58 IDR 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 218.17 IDR 327.25 IDR 436.33 IDR 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 73/100

Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 88
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 54
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 65
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+33.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.34% vs 19%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 24%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 355 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 36% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 37% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 2.29× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.20× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 10.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 6.5× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)43 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 24
PAST (return on equity)48 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 31

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BASF SE BAS €51.79 €23.76 −54%
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 ¥23.21 ¥40.44 +74%
Dow Inc DOW $28.20 $21.03 −25%
Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 ¥34.61 ¥19.88 −43%
Rongsheng Petrochemical Co 002493 ¥13.13 ¥2.90 −78%
Zangge Mining Company 000408 ¥73.50 ¥80.85 +10%
Ganfeng Lithium Group 002460 ¥46.39 ¥16.17 −65%
PT Barito Pacific Tbk, BRPT 1,565 IDR 1,589 IDR +2%
Hengli Petrochemical Co 600346 ¥16.54 ¥43.28 +162%
LG Chem, Ltd 051910 252,500 KRW 587,755 KRW +133%

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Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk · Fair Value
654.50 IDR +7%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ESSA

Frequently asked questions

Is Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 654.50 IDR versus a price of 610.00 IDR, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ESSA?
Our model-based fair value for Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is 654.50 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 610.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of ESSA?
Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 654.50 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 490.88 IDR, optimistic scenario 818.12 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 654.50 IDR, about +7% upside versus a price of 610.00 IDR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 490.88 IDR, optimistic scenario 818.12 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $321M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk it is 654.50 IDR per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 610.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ESSA trades below its calculated fair value: price 610.00 IDR, fair value 654.50 IDR, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ESSA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (610.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (654.50 IDR). For Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk the two are 44.50 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk worth?
The market values Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk at about 10.5T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 610.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 654.50 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ESSA?
Our models span a range for Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk: cautious scenario 490.88 IDR, base 654.50 IDR, optimistic 818.12 IDR per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 610.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ESSA?
Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 654.50 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 12.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ESSA from its 52-week high?
Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk trades at 610.00 IDR, about 31% below its 52-week high of 879.48 IDR and 18% above the low of 515.00 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 654.50 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, Zhejiang Juhua Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 610.00 IDR, calculated fair value 654.50 IDR (+7%), Quality Score 73/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ESSA calculated?
We run Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 654.50 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk currently trades 7 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 610.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 654.50 IDR, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA) come from?
Earnings per share at Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk grew +19.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +21.8 %, EBIT margin −0.1 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk

How large is the market capitalisation of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
The market capitalisation of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is 10.5T IDR (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is 1.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
Earnings per share at Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk are 53.35 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
The net margin of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is 13.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is 15.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
The operating margin of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is 35.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
Revenue at Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is growing +36.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
Earnings per share at Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk are growing +131% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA) generate?
The free cash flow of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is $97.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA) hold?
Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk holds more cash than debt, $126M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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