Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk stock IDR 417, price IDR 488, that is 14.6% below the price, quality 75 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 237.53 IDR – 1,285 IDR · fair‑value band 291.62 IDR – 541.57 IDR · the 488.00 IDR price screens above the 416.59 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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PT ESSA Industries Indonesia Tbk., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) refinery in Indonesia. It operates through the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Processing Fee, Ammonia, and Others segments.
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The company offers ammonia used as a raw material for fertilizer production, explosives, dyes, household cleaners, and nylon.
It also provides LPG primarily for use as a kitchen appliance fuel for homes, shopping centers, and hotels; ammonia plant; and motor vehicle fuel, as well as for construction industries, such as welding fuel in steel workshops; and condensate for use as a raw material for thinner, adhesive, and vehicle tire applications, as well as light naphtha, which is a cracker material for the manufacture of polyethylene.
In addition, the company offers management and business consulting services; industrial products from oil refineries; and raw feed gas through pipelines, as well as organic basic chemical industry sourced from agricultural products.
Further, the company engages in the procurement and distribution of natural and artificial gas; oil mining; trade of solid, liquid, and gas fuels; and supporting activities of oil and other natural gas mining.
The company was formerly known as PT Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk and changed its name to PT ESSA Industries Indonesia Tbk. in October 2023. PT ESSA Industries Indonesia Tbk. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA) currently trades at 488.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 416.59 IDR, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 1,105 IDR per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the 488.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 92.94 IDR, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 291.62 IDR (bear) to 541.57 IDR (bull), the price of 488.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk reported revenue of $291M in FY2025 versus $303M in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was $39.8M in FY2025, compounding +29.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 8.4T IDR (≈ $464M) Small · P/E ratio 9.0 · P/S ratio 1.22 · EPS (TTM) 54.47 IDR · Net margin 13.7% · Return on equity 14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 17.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −15%, ESSA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear291.62 IDRFair Value 416.59 IDRBull541.57 IDR
Price 488.00 IDR · Downside -14.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (46.56 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF916.81 IDR1,445 IDR2,620 IDR74
Growth DCF887.09 IDR1,473 IDR2,260 IDR74
Residual Income362.46 IDR380.15 IDR424.06 IDR74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF916.81 IDR1,445 IDR2,620 IDR74
Owner Earnings964.61 IDR1,674 IDR2,836 IDR71
5Y Revenue Exit516.66 IDR732.97 IDR1,010 IDR70
5Y EBITDA Exit636.22 IDR998.98 IDR1,459 IDR72
5Y P/E Exit655.36 IDR1,042 IDR1,497 IDR67
10Y Revenue Exit656.46 IDR917.37 IDR1,301 IDR64
10Y EBITDA Exit733.65 IDR1,096 IDR1,656 IDR65
10Y P/E Exit745.13 IDR1,124 IDR1,685 IDR61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd282.82 IDR1,675 IDR2,334 IDR61
Lynch FV476.00 IDR680.00 IDR884.01 IDR59
PEG = 1.0476.00 IDR680.00 IDR884.01 IDR55
EPV404.94 IDR443.70 IDR475.43 IDR73
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM55.94 IDR95.96 IDR126.86 IDR66
DDM Multi-Stage55.94 IDR89.92 IDR103.01 IDR65
Multiples
P/E Multiple436.70 IDR582.27 IDR727.83 IDR63
P/S Multiple199.87 IDR266.49 IDR333.11 IDR57
P/B Multiple589.46 IDR785.95 IDR982.44 IDR55
EV/EBIT495.47 IDR628.71 IDR761.95 IDR65
EV/EBITDA499.78 IDR634.46 IDR769.14 IDR67
EV/Revenue282.30 IDR362.25 IDR442.19 IDR53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)85.45 IDR129.46 IDR161.83 IDR54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF887.09 IDR1,473 IDR2,260 IDR74
Rev-Margin DCF516.66 IDR737.31 IDR1,045 IDR69
Economic Profit
Residual Income362.46 IDR380.15 IDR424.06 IDR74
ROIC Compounder404.94 IDR443.70 IDR486.62 IDR69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E587.63 IDR839.47 IDR1,091 IDR65
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+33.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 33.8% / 18.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 24%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.8% a year for the price and +3.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 336 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−14.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)22.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)17.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)34.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ESSA
Frequently asked questions
Is Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 416.59 IDR versus a price of 488.00 IDR, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ESSA?
Our model-based fair value for Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is 416.59 IDR (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 488.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of ESSA?
Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 416.59 IDR (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 291.62 IDR, optimistic scenario 541.57 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 416.59 IDR, about 15% lower versus a price of 488.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 291.62 IDR, optimistic scenario 541.57 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $344M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -18.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.7 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ESSA use?
Our models discount Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.19, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk that is -18.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk grew +10.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -18.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (-18.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.98 %: that much free cash flow Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk it is 416.59 IDR per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of 488.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, ESSA trades above its calculated fair value: price 488.00 IDR, fair value 416.59 IDR, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ESSA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (488.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (416.59 IDR). For Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk the two are 71.41 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk worth?
The market values Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk at about 8.4T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is 488.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 416.59 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ESSA?
Our models span a range for Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk: cautious scenario 291.62 IDR, base 416.59 IDR, optimistic 541.57 IDR per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price 488.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ESSA?
Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 416.59 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 3.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 14.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ESSA from its 52-week high?
Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk trades at 488.00 IDR, about 45% below its 52-week high of 879.48 IDR and 4% above the low of 470.00 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 416.59 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Dow Inc, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price 488.00 IDR, calculated fair value 416.59 IDR (−15%), Quality Score 75/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ESSA calculated?
We run Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 416.59 IDR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 488.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 416.59 IDR, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk right now?
A fairly wide model range (291.62 IDR to 541.57 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA) come from?
Earnings per share at Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk grew +19.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +21.8 %, EBIT margin −0.1 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
The market capitalisation of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is 8.4T IDR (≈ $464M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is 1.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
Earnings per share at Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk are 54.47 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
The net margin of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is 13.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is 15.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
The operating margin of Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
Revenue at Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk is growing +34.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA)?
Earnings per share at Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk are growing +70.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA) hold?
Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk holds more cash than debt, $126M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 7, 2026