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Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc stock $3.37, price $4.44, that is 24.1% below the price, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Industrials US

ET Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc

EVLV · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 24% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Revenue last quarter +34% vs. a year ago.
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +98.1 %/yr in USD)
Insiders bought $296,479 (6M) · sold $2.3M
Fair value $3.37 · Overvalued
Quality 36/100
Loss-making · -3.1% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/10)
Narrow moat 13/100
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$9.97 $1.69 Fair Value $3.37 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.69 – $9.97 · fair‑value band $2.53 – $4.22 · the $4.44 price screens above the $3.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and sells security screening products and specific services in the United States and internationally.

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It offers Evolv Express, that is designed to detect firearms, improvised explosive devices, and large tactical knives in unstructured people flows; Evolv eXpedite, an autonomous AI-based weapon detection system for bags being brought to venues by visitors in high clutter environments; and Evolv Insights Analytics Application which provides self-serve access, insights regarding visitor flow and arrival curves, location specific performance, system detection performance and alarm statistics, and comparisons across multiple business dimensions.

The company serves various industries comprising education, healthcare, professional sports, notable performing arts and entertainment venues, major tourist destinations and cultural attractions, government and corporate offices, hospitality facilities, distribution facilities, large industrial workplaces, and houses of worship.

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV) currently trades at $4.44, while our estimate is $3.37, 24% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $2.53 (bear) to $4.22 (bull), the price of $4.44 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc reported revenue of $146M in FY2025 versus $23.4M in FY2021, a compound +58.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$33.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $865M Small · P/S ratio 5.05 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0300 · Net margin −3.1% · Return on equity −4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −24.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin −21.4% · Revenue (TTM) $171M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 13 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −24%, EVLV screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $2.53 Fair Value $3.37 Bull $4.22
Price $4.44 · Downside -24.1%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 15
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 79
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 17
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 48
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 10
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 7
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 6
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 12
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors bought shares worth $296,479, most recently on Sep 4, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $2.3M. Buying cluster

  • BuyRichard A ShapiroDirector2× since Nov 20, 2025: 78,900 shares, avg. $5.57$439,865Sep 4, 2026
  • SaleMichael EllenbogenDirector11× since Nov 17, 2025: 901,396 shares, avg. $5.84$5.3MAug 17, 2026
  • BuyNeil GlatDirector8,500 shares at $5.74$48,790Aug 14, 2026
  • BuyHenrik KuhlDirector15,000 shares at $5.73$85,950Aug 14, 2026
  • SaleRobert E MarshallChief Revenue Officer62,067 shares at $6.85$425,159Jun 2, 2026
  • SaleGeorge C KutsorChief Financial Officer51,448 shares at $7.27$374,027May 4, 2026
  • SaleAnil ChitkaraFounder & Chief Growth Officer63,670 shares at $5.19$330,447Mar 2, 2026
  • SaleJohn KedzierskiPresident & CEO, Director74,322 shares at $7.03$522,484Jan 5, 2026
  • BuyRobert E MarshallChief Revenue Officer7,000 shares at $6.06$42,420Nov 25, 2025
  • BuyJohn KedzierskiPresident & CEO, Director8,000 shares at $5.91$47,280Nov 21, 2025

Plus 1 more entries from the last 12 months.

Plus 14 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+40.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+98.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+70.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−562.1% (2020) → −30.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

EVLV screens overvalued: fair value 24% below the price. Compare with Allegion plc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 115 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −24.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −10.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −3.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −21.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 34.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.24× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 7.24× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 5.05× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)1 · sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 46
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)88 · sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 41

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 ¥14.36 ¥32.12 +124% vs EVLV
ADT Inc ADT $9.90 $10.67 +8% vs EVLV
Brady Corporation BRC $80.00 $84.37 +5% vs EVLV
The Brink's Company BCO $116.60 $121.16 +4% vs EVLV
S-1 Corporation 012750 98,100 KRW 99,629 KRW +2% vs EVLV
Loomis AB LOOMIS kr 517.50 kr 496.43 −4% vs EVLV
MSA Safety Incorporated MSA $175.24 $121.81 −30% vs EVLV
Allegion plc ALLE $189.49 $129.15 −32% vs EVLV
CoreCivic, Inc CXW $31.59 $18.76 −41% vs EVLV
The GEO Group GEO $31.94 $13.08 −59% vs EVLV

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Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EVLV

Frequently asked questions

Is Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $3.37 versus a price of $4.44, about 24% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EVLV?
Our estimate for Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc is $3.37 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.44.
What is the quality score of EVLV?
Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $3.37 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $2.53, optimistic scenario $4.22. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $3.37, about 24% lower versus a price of $4.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.53, optimistic scenario $4.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV)?
Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $171M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc it is $3.37 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $4.44.
Is Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, EVLV trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.44, fair value $3.37, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EVLV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.37). For Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc the two are $1.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc at about $865M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $4.44; our models calculate a fair value of $3.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EVLV?
Our models span a range for Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $2.53, base $3.37, optimistic $4.22 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $4.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −4.9%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EVLV from its 52-week high?
Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc trades at $4.44, about 40% below its 52-week high of $7.36 and 10% above the low of $4.05 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Allegion plc, ADT Inc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $4.44, calculated fair value $3.37 (−24%), Quality Score 36/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $4.44. Our estimate is $3.37, about 24% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV)?
The market capitalisation of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc is $865M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc is 5.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV)?
Earnings per share at Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc are $−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV)?
The net margin of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc is −3.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc is −4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc is −24.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV)?
The operating margin of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc is −21.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV)?
Revenue at Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc is growing +34.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +40.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV) generate?
The free cash flow of Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc is −$12.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc (EVLV) hold?
Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, $6.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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