Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $205M

Below-average quality, and screening another 60% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.9435). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.20 – $3.85 · fair‑value band $0.5270 – $0.9435 · the $1.83 price screens above the $0.7310 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF) currently trades at $1.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.7310, implying the stock looks roughly 60.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Expert.ai S.p.A generated revenue of $47.8M at a net margin of -11.9%. Revenue grew 58.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -15.0%. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.5270 (bear case) to $0.9435 (bull case); at $1.83, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -60%, EXSPF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($0.7600) versus Asset-Based ($0.3900). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Expert.ai S.p.A., an artificial intelligence (AI) platform company, develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on AI algorithms to read and understand written language worldwide.

Full company description

Expert.ai S.p.A., an artificial intelligence (AI) platform company, develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on AI algorithms to read and understand written language worldwide. The company offers expert.ai Platform that captures the strategic value of language data; expert.ai Answers, a customer support automation software that allows human like interaction between customers and internal staff, using the language of business and users; expert.ai Discover, a text analytics, and extraction and categorization software; expert.ai for Insurance that automate insurance claims management with natural language understanding; and expert.ai for Life Sciences to mimic the human like comprehension of scientific content, such as publications, patents, clinical trials, or medical reports. It serves the banking and insurance, public administration, life science and pharma, oil and gas, media and publishing, and telecom and utilities industries, as well as defense, and intelligence and law enforcement industries. Expert.ai S.p.A. has a strategic partnership agreement with WealthIntel Inc. to facilitate innovations in natural language and text analytics. The company was formerly known as Expert System S.p.A. and changed its name to Expert.ai S.p.A. in May 2021. Expert.ai S.p.A. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Modena, Italy.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years

Expert.ai S.p.A reported revenue of $21.8M in FY2024 versus $28.2M in FY2020, a compound −6.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$13.7M in FY2024.

EXSPF screens 60% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

Peer Group

Software - Application · 709 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.