Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Expert.ai S.p.A $0.86, price $1.83, upside -53.0%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Expert.ai S.p.A for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.20 – $3.85 · fair‑value band $0.6200 – $1.11 · the $1.83 price screens above the $0.8600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Expert.ai S.p.A in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Expert.ai S.p.A is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Expert.ai S.p.A., an artificial intelligence (AI) platform company, develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on AI algorithms to read and understand written language worldwide.
Show more
Expert.ai S.p.A., an artificial intelligence (AI) platform company, develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on AI algorithms to read and understand written language worldwide. The company offers expert.ai Platform that captures the strategic value of language data; expert.ai Answers, a customer support automation software that allows human like interaction between customers and internal staff, using the language of business and users; expert.ai Discover, a text analytics, and extraction and categorization software; expert.ai for Insurance that automate insurance claims management with natural language understanding; and expert.ai for Life Sciences to mimic the human like comprehension of scientific content, such as publications, patents, clinical trials, or medical reports. It serves the banking and insurance, public administration, life science and pharma, oil and gas, media and publishing, and telecom and utilities industries, as well as defense, and intelligence and law enforcement industries. Expert.ai S.p.A. has a strategic partnership agreement with WealthIntel Inc. to facilitate innovations in natural language and text analytics. The company was formerly known as Expert System S.p.A. and changed its name to Expert.ai S.p.A. in May 2021. Expert.ai S.p.A. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Modena, Italy.
Stock analysis
Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF) currently trades at $1.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8600, 53.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.6200 (bear) to $1.11 (bull), the price of $1.83 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Expert.ai S.p.A reported revenue of €21.8M in FY2024 versus €28.2M in FY2020, a compound −6.2%/yr. Reported net income was −€13.7M in FY2024.
Key figures
Market cap $205M · P/S ratio 4.28 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0600 · Net margin −62.9% · Return on equity −15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.6% · Operating margin 12.2% · Revenue (TTM) €47.8M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −53%, EXSPF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.6200Fair Value $0.8600Bull $1.11
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.4%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7.3% (2019) → −10.1% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2024 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 636 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−82.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−11.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth58.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.09× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)4.28× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA31.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 44
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Expert.ai S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXSPF
Frequently asked questions
Is Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.8600 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $1.83, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EXSPF?
Our model-based fair value for Expert.ai S.p.A is $0.8600 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $1.83.
What is the quality score of EXSPF?
Expert.ai S.p.A has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.8600 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.6200, optimistic scenario $1.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Expert.ai S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.8600, about −53% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $1.83 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.6200, optimistic scenario $1.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF)?
Expert.ai S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €47.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Expert.ai S.p.A it is $0.8600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.83. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Expert.ai S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, EXSPF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.83, fair value $0.8600, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXSPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.8600). For Expert.ai S.p.A the two are $0.9700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Expert.ai S.p.A worth?
The market values Expert.ai S.p.A at about $205M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.83; our models calculate a fair value of $0.8600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXSPF?
Our models span a range for Expert.ai S.p.A: cautious scenario $0.6200, base $0.8600, optimistic $1.11 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Expert.ai S.p.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −15.0%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXSPF from its 52-week high?
Expert.ai S.p.A trades at $1.83, about 13% below its 52-week high of $2.10 and 11% above the low of $1.65 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.8600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Expert.ai S.p.A?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Expert.ai S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.83, calculated fair value $0.8600 (−53%), Quality Score 29/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXSPF calculated?
We run Expert.ai S.p.A through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.8600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Expert.ai S.p.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $1.83. Our model-based fair value is $0.8600, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Expert.ai S.p.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Expert.ai S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF)?
The market capitalisation of Expert.ai S.p.A is $205M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Expert.ai S.p.A is 4.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF)?
Earnings per share at Expert.ai S.p.A are $−0.0600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF)?
The net margin of Expert.ai S.p.A is −62.9% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Expert.ai S.p.A is −15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Expert.ai S.p.A is −6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF)?
The operating margin of Expert.ai S.p.A is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF)?
Revenue at Expert.ai S.p.A is growing +58.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Expert.ai S.p.A (EXSPF) generate?
The free cash flow of Expert.ai S.p.A is −€6.7M (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
Free · no account needed
Watch Expert.ai S.p.A in the live analysis
One click puts Expert.ai S.p.A on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026