First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch First Citizens BancShares, Inc. for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $502.92 – $2,337 · fair‑value band $1,876 – $3,488 · the $2,122 price screens above the $2,115 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
First Citizens BancShares, Inc. operates as the holding company for First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company that provides retail and commercial banking services to individuals, businesses, and professionals in the United States and internationally. It operates through the General Bank, Commercial Bank, and Rail segments.
Show more
First Citizens BancShares, Inc. operates as the holding company for First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company that provides retail and commercial banking services to individuals, businesses, and professionals in the United States and internationally. It operates through the General Bank, Commercial Bank, and Rail segments. The General Bank segment offers deposit products, including checking, savings, money market, and time deposit accounts; conforming and jumbo residential mortgage, and business and commercial loans; brokerage, investment advisory, private stock loans, other secured and unsecured lending products, and vineyard development loans; planning-based financial strategies, family office, financial planning, tax planning, and trust services; and payment and treasury services. This segment also includes a community association bank business that supports deposit, cash management, and lending to homeowner associations and property management companies. Its Commercial Bank segment provides a range of leasing, capital markets, asset management, and other financial and advisory services; factoring, receivable management, supply chain financing, and secured financing services; and commercial deposit products and services through online and mobile banking platforms, as well as physical locations. The Rail segment offers customized leasing and financing solutions on a fleet of railcars and locomotives to railroads and shippers. Its railcar types include covered hopper cars used to ship grain and agricultural products, plastic pellets, sand, and cement; tank cars for energy products and chemicals; gondolas for coal, steel coil and mill service products; open-top hopper cars for coal and aggregates; boxcars for paper and auto parts; and centerbeams and flat cars for lumber. First Citizens BancShares, Inc. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Stock analysis
First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) currently trades at $2,122, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2,115, implying the stock looks roughly 0.3% fairly valued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $2,710 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $2,122 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $244.93, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1,876 (bear) to $3,488 (bull), the price of $2,122 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
First Citizens BancShares, Inc. reported revenue of $14.5B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound +66.2%/yr. Reported net income was $2.2B in FY2025, compounding +41.7%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $26.2B · P/E ratio 11.8 · P/S ratio 1.80 · EPS (TTM) $173.41 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 15.2% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 0%, FCNCA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1,876Fair Value $2,115Bull $3,488
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($120.52 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+49.9%
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+30.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.30% vs 26%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 21%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−6.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare First Citizens BancShares, Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside+26% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)25% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)34% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.61× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "First Citizens BancShares, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FCNCA
Frequently asked questions
Is First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2,115 versus a price of $2,122, about −0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of FCNCA?
Our model-based fair value for First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is $2,115 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2,122.
What is the quality score of FCNCA?
First Citizens BancShares, Inc. has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2,115 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1,876, optimistic scenario $3,488. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First Citizens BancShares, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2,115, about −0% upside versus a price of $2,122 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $1,876, optimistic scenario $3,488. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
First Citizens BancShares, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does First Citizens BancShares, Inc. pay a dividend?
First Citizens BancShares, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.38% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, First Citizens BancShares, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +5.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +49.9 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FCNCA use?
Our models discount First Citizens BancShares, Inc. at 8.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For First Citizens BancShares, Inc. that is +5.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at First Citizens BancShares, Inc. grew +49.9 % a year. The price currently implies +5.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (+5.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.90 %: that much free cash flow First Citizens BancShares, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Citizens BancShares, Inc. it is $2,115 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $2,122. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is First Citizens BancShares, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, FCNCA trades above its calculated fair value: price $2,122, fair value $2,115, a gap of about −0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FCNCA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2,122); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2,115). For First Citizens BancShares, Inc. the two are $7.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First Citizens BancShares, Inc. worth?
The market values First Citizens BancShares, Inc. at about $26.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $2,122; our models calculate a fair value of $2,115 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FCNCA?
Our models span a range for First Citizens BancShares, Inc.: cautious scenario $1,876, base $2,115, optimistic $3,488 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $2,122). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FCNCA?
First Citizens BancShares, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2,115 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 1.1, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 11.6.
What is the PEG ratio of FCNCA?
The PEG ratio of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is 1.35 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
Balance-sheet figures for First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 10.2%, debt of 1.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FCNCA from its 52-week high?
First Citizens BancShares, Inc. trades at $2,122, about 5% below its 52-week high of $2,228 and 31% above the low of $1,619 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2,115 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First Citizens BancShares, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First Citizens BancShares, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $2,122, calculated fair value $2,115 (−0%), Quality Score 48/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FCNCA calculated?
We run First Citizens BancShares, Inc. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2,115, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. First Citizens BancShares, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $2,122. Our model-based fair value is $2,115, about −0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First Citizens BancShares, Inc. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($1,876 to $3,488) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) come from?
Earnings per share at First Citizens BancShares, Inc. grew +42.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +28.4 %, EBIT margin +7.0 %, tax rate +3.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of First Citizens BancShares, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
The market capitalisation of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is $26.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is 1.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
Earnings per share at First Citizens BancShares, Inc. are $173.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
The dividend yield of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is 0.4% (payout 4.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
The net margin of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is 15.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
The operating margin of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is 34.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
Revenue at First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is growing +4.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +41.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)?
Earnings per share at First Citizens BancShares, Inc. are growing +23.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) carry?
The net debt of First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is $15.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch First Citizens BancShares, Inc. in the live analysis
One click puts First Citizens BancShares, Inc. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 18, 2026