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First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust
FCXXF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $10.20 · Strongly overvalued (−37%)
!Quality 55/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 148.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·5.50% dividend yield
!Moderate moat 49/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.57 – $17.16 · fair‑value band $10.20 – $15.99 · the $16.29 price screens above the $10.20 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is an unincorporated, open-ended mutual fund trust. First Capital owns and operates, acquires, and develops open-air grocery-anchored shopping centres in neighborhoods with the strongest demographics in Canada. The Trust is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
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First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is an unincorporated, open-ended mutual fund trust. First Capital owns and operates, acquires, and develops open-air grocery-anchored shopping centres in neighborhoods with the strongest demographics in Canada. The Trust is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. On November 24, 2025, the Trust's unitholders approved an internal tax reorganization that was completed by way of a plan of arrangement (the Arrangement). The Arrangement simplified First Capital's organizational structure by eliminating First Capital Realty Inc. as the Trust's wholly owned corporate subsidiary that owned, directly and indirectly, all of First Capital's real property portfolio. The Arrangement was completed and became effective on November 30, 2025. Following the Arrangement, First Capital now holds substantially all its real property portfolio through flow-through entities, namely subsidiary partnerships and trusts. First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is incorporated in Ontario, Canada and its head office is located at 85 Hanna Avenue, Suite 400, Toronto, Ontario, M6K 3S3. First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust was established on November 10, 1993 and incorporated in Ontario, Canada.
Stock analysis
First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF) currently trades at $16.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.20, implying the stock looks roughly 59.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $44.11 per share, and 4 of the 13 models we run sit above the $16.29 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $2.00, and 9 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.20 (bear) to $15.99 (bull), the price of $16.29 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust reported revenue of C$731M in FY2025 versus C$675M in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$1.1B in FY2025, compounding +23.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.5B · P/E ratio 4.5 · P/S ratio 6.57 · EPS (TTM) $3.61 · Dividend yield 5.5% · Net margin 146% · Return on equity 23.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −37%, FCXXF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.20
Fair Value $10.20
Bull $15.99
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.91 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$8.02
$20.08
72
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$2.13
$12.21
69
Rev-Margin DCF
n/a
$2.00
$10.40
69
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$2.13
$12.21
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$8.02
$20.08
72
10Y Revenue Exit
n/a
n/a
$5.30
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$0.8500
$10.96
65
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$7.79
$14.01
$21.85
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$7.79
$11.57
$15.52
67
Multiples
P/S Multiple
$16.77
$22.36
$27.95
58
P/B Multiple
$34.00
$45.34
$56.67
55
EV/EBIT
$14.07
$24.37
$34.68
64
EV/EBITDA
$7.19
$15.21
$23.22
64
EV/Revenue
$0.0100
$7.24
$14.46
46
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$11.33
$15.19
$22.67
54
Growth DCF
Rev-Margin DCF
n/a
$2.00
$10.40
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$32.03
$44.11
$217.00
64
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
55/100
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Profitability
52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
35
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
60
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
67
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
89
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+27.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22% vs 19%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.57% → 55%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+44.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+4.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.1%
FCXXF screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Simon Property Group →
Compare First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Property Group SPG | $204.83 | $84.26 | −59% |
| Realty Income Corporation O | $59.50 | $82.78 | +39% |
| Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE URW | €92.90 | €89.06 | −4% |
| Kimco Realty Corporation KIM | $23.19 | $12.49 | −46% |
| CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) C38U | 2.28 SGD | 1.31 SGD | −43% |
| Scentre Group SCG | A$3.46 | A$2.37 | −32% |
| Regency Centers Corporation REG | $74.62 | $20.56 | −72% |
| Link Real Estate Investment Trust (Link REIT) 0823 | HK$37.84 | HK$28.78 | −24% |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT | $114.36 | $41.47 | −64% |
| Brixmor Property Group BRX | $28.73 | $12.34 | −57% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.20 versus a price of $16.29, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FCXXF?
Our model-based fair value for First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is $10.20 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.29.
What is the quality score of FCXXF?
First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.20 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.20, optimistic scenario $15.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.20, about −37% upside versus a price of $16.29 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.20, optimistic scenario $15.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF)?
First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $723M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust pay a dividend?
First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust would have to grow free cash flow by +44.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.7 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FCXXF use?
Our models discount First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust that is +44.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust grew +1.7 % a year. The price currently implies +44.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (+44.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.73 %: that much free cash flow First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust it is $10.20 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $16.29. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, FCXXF trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.29, fair value $10.20, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FCXXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.20). For First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust the two are $6.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust worth?
The market values First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust at about $3.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $16.29; our models calculate a fair value of $10.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FCXXF?
Our models span a range for First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust: cautious scenario $10.20, base $10.20, optimistic $15.99 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $16.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is FCXXF from its 52-week high?
First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust trades at $16.29, about 7% below its 52-week high of $17.49 and 32% above the low of $12.33 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, Kimco Realty Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $16.29, calculated fair value $10.20 (−37%), Quality Score 55/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FCXXF calculated?
We run First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF)?
The market capitalisation of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is $3.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is 4.5. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is 6.57 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF)?
Earnings per share at First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust are $3.61 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF)?
The dividend yield of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is 5.5% (payout 24.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF)?
The net margin of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is 146% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is 23.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF)?
The operating margin of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is 52.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF)?
Revenue at First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is growing +4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF)?
Earnings per share at First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust are growing +10.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust (FCXXF) carry?
The net debt of First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust is $3.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 65.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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