Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA BRL 8.13, price BRL 10.50, upside -22.6%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$1.37 – R$14.55 · fair‑value band R$5.24 – R$11.92 · the R$10.50 price screens above the R$8.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia S.A. - FERBASA manufactures and sells ferroalloys, ferrochrome, and ferrosilicon in Brazil and internationally. It operates through Ferroalloys, Wind Energy, and Others segments.
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Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia S.A. - FERBASA manufactures and sells ferroalloys, ferrochrome, and ferrosilicon in Brazil and internationally. It operates through Ferroalloys, Wind Energy, and Others segments. The company offers high carbon ferrochrome, low carbon ferrochrome, ferrochrome silicon, ferrosilicon, chromite sand, lump, lime, concentrate, wood and slag, quicklime, and active silica/microsilica. It also engages in the mining, forestry, and metallurgy businesses; generates electricity through wind farms; and sells standing timber, chromium ore and sand, and hydrated lime. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Salvador, Brazil. Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia S.A. - FERBASA operates as a subsidiary of Fundação José Carvalho.
Stock analysis
Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3) currently trades at R$10.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$8.13, implying the stock looks roughly 29.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$9.45 per share, and 3 of the 23 models we run sit above the R$10.50 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$4.85, and 20 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$5.24 (bear) to R$11.92 (bull), the price of R$10.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA reported revenue of R$2.3B in FY2025 versus R$2.4B in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was R$188M in FY2025, compounding −26.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$3.6B (≈ $691M) · P/E ratio 23.3 · P/S ratio 1.88 · EPS (TTM) R$0.4500 · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin 8.1% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −23%, FESA3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$5.24Fair Value R$8.13Bull R$11.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.6% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+3.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3% vs 8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → −3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.3% a year for the price.
Compare Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 412 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−23% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets−2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FESA3
Frequently asked questions
Is Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$8.13 versus a price of R$10.50, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FESA3?
Our model-based fair value for Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA is R$8.13 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$10.50.
What is the quality score of FESA3?
Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$8.13 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$5.24, optimistic scenario R$11.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$8.13, about −23% upside versus a price of R$10.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$5.24, optimistic scenario R$11.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$2.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA pay a dividend?
Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.95% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA would have to grow free cash flow by +20.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FESA3 use?
Our models discount Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA that is +20.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA grew +7.6 % a year. The price currently implies +20.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (+20.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.90 %: that much free cash flow Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA it is R$8.13 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of R$10.50. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, FESA3 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$10.50, fair value R$8.13, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FESA3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$10.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$8.13). For Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA the two are R$2.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA worth?
The market values Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA at about R$3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is R$10.50; our models calculate a fair value of R$8.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FESA3?
Our models span a range for Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA: cautious scenario R$5.24, base R$8.13, optimistic R$11.92 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price R$10.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FESA3?
Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$8.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 30.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 4.9%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FESA3 from its 52-week high?
Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA trades at R$10.50, about 22% below its 52-week high of R$13.50 and 11% above the low of R$9.49 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$8.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price R$10.50, calculated fair value R$8.13 (−23%), Quality Score 54/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FESA3 calculated?
We run Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$8.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R$10.50. Our model-based fair value is R$8.13, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R$5.24 to R$11.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3) come from?
Earnings per share at Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA grew +21.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +17.5 %, EBIT margin −0.1 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA
How large is the market capitalisation of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
The market capitalisation of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA is R$3.6B (≈ $691M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA is 1.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
Earnings per share at Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA are R$0.4500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
The dividend yield of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA is 7.0% (payout 162%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
The net margin of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA is 8.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA is 12.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
The operating margin of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA is −2.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
Revenue at Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA is growing −7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3)?
Earnings per share at Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA are growing −20.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA (FESA3) carry?
The net debt of Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia - FERBASA is R$39.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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