FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of FENIX Resources Ltd A$0.25, price A$0.25, upside +0.0%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1612 – A$0.5450 · fair‑value band A$0.1500 – A$0.3900 · the A$0.2500 price screens below the A$0.2500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Fenix Resources Limited provides mining, logistics, and port services in Western Australia. The company's flagship property is the 100% owned Iron Ridge Iron Ore project located in Western Australia. It operates three iron ore mines in the Mid-West region of Western Australia.
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Fenix Resources Limited provides mining, logistics, and port services in Western Australia. The company's flagship property is the 100% owned Iron Ridge Iron Ore project located in Western Australia. It operates three iron ore mines in the Mid-West region of Western Australia. The company also provides fully integrated mine-to-port haulage services; and operates on-wharf storage and ship-loading facilities at geraldton port; and direct ship loading access and services. The company was formerly known as Emergent Resources Limited. Fenix Resources Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX) currently trades at A$0.2500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.2500, implying the stock looks roughly 0.0% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$0.3000 per share, and 7 of the 23 models we run sit above the A$0.2500 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$0.0700, and 16 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.1500 (bear) to A$0.3900 (bull), the price of A$0.2500 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
FENIX Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$316M in FY2025 versus A$114M in FY2021, a compound +28.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$5.4M in FY2025, compounding −42.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$218M (≈ $154M) · P/E ratio 12.5 · P/S ratio 0.21 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0200 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 26.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at 0%, FEX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.1500Fair Value A$0.2500Bull A$0.3900
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0100 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +132.0% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+67.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−36.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−40.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 415 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth125% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
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Is FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.2500 versus a price of A$0.2500, about +0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of FEX?
Our model-based fair value for FENIX Resources Ltd is A$0.2500 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.2500.
What is the quality score of FEX?
FENIX Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.2500 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1500, optimistic scenario A$0.3900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FENIX Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.2500, about +0% upside versus a price of A$0.2500 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$0.1500, optimistic scenario A$0.3900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
FENIX Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$479M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does FENIX Resources Ltd pay a dividend?
FENIX Resources Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, FENIX Resources Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +22.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FEX use?
Our models discount FENIX Resources Ltd at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.01, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For FENIX Resources Ltd that is +22.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at FENIX Resources Ltd grew +22.5 % a year. The price currently implies +22.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into FENIX Resources Ltd (+22.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.99 %: that much free cash flow FENIX Resources Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FENIX Resources Ltd it is A$0.2500 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.2500. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is FENIX Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, FEX trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.2500, fair value A$0.2500, a gap of about +0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FEX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.2500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.2500). For FENIX Resources Ltd the two are A$0.0000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FENIX Resources Ltd worth?
The market values FENIX Resources Ltd at about A$218M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.2500; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.2500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FEX?
Our models span a range for FENIX Resources Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1500, base A$0.2500, optimistic A$0.3900 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.2500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FEX?
FENIX Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.2500 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 1.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
Balance-sheet figures for FENIX Resources Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.5%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FEX from its 52-week high?
FENIX Resources Ltd trades at A$0.2500, about 54% below its 52-week high of A$0.5450 and at the low of A$0.2500 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.2500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FENIX Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FENIX Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.2500, calculated fair value A$0.2500 (+0%), Quality Score 35/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FEX calculated?
We run FENIX Resources Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.2500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. FENIX Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$0.2500. Our model-based fair value is A$0.2500, about +0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FENIX Resources Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$0.1500 to A$0.3900). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of FENIX Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
The market capitalisation of FENIX Resources Ltd is A$218M (≈ $154M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FENIX Resources Ltd is 0.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
Earnings per share at FENIX Resources Ltd are A$0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
The dividend yield of FENIX Resources Ltd is 4.0% (payout 50.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
The net margin of FENIX Resources Ltd is 1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FENIX Resources Ltd is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FENIX Resources Ltd is 26.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
The operating margin of FENIX Resources Ltd is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
Revenue at FENIX Resources Ltd is growing +125% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX)?
Earnings per share at FENIX Resources Ltd are growing +371% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does FENIX Resources Ltd (FEX) carry?
The net debt of FENIX Resources Ltd is A$26.1M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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