Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Fair Isaac Corporation stock $782, price $701, upside +11.6%, quality 90 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs 10% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value $782.35 · Undervalued (10%)
Quality 90/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +9.0 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 34.1% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers(9/11)
Wide moat98/100
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +26%, profit +41%.
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Neutral coverage
Insiders sold $1.4M (6M)
Some data
Quality growth
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Regulators opening door to cheaper alternatives like VantageScore🚩AI could reduce switching costs in scoring🚩Plaid LendScore could displace traditional models🚩Antitrust probes could constrain practices
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $341.44 – $2,382 · fair‑value band $456.33 – $1,059 · the $701.03 price screens below the $782.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Fair Isaac Corporation provides analytics software in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Scores and Software.
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The Scores segment offers business-to-business scoring solutions and services that give clients access to predictive credit and other scores that can be integrated into their transaction streams and decision-making processes, as well as business-to-consumer scoring solutions comprising myFICO.com subscription offerings.
Its Software segment provides pre-configured analytic and decision management solution designed for various business needs or processes, such as account origination, customer management, customer engagement, fraud detection, and marketing, as well as associated professional services.
This segment also offers FICO Platform, a modular software offering designed to support advanced analytic and decision use cases, as well as stand-alone analytic and decisioning software that can be configured by customers to address a wide range of business use cases.
In addition, the company offers analytic and decisioning software comprising FICO Decision Modeler, FICO Blaze Advisor, FICO Xpress Optimization, FICO Analytics Workbench, FICO Data Orchestrator, FICO DMP Streaming, FICO Business Outcome Simulator, and FICO Decision Optimizer; pre-configured solutions consisting of FICO Fraud Solutions, FICO Originations, FICO Customer Communication Service, FICO Strategy Director, and FICO TRIAD Customer Manager; and professional services software, including FICO Implementation Services and FICO Analytic Services.
It markets its products and services primarily through its direct sales organization and indirect channels, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Fair Isaac & Company, Inc. and changed its name to Fair Isaac Corporation in July 1992.
Fair Isaac Corporation was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Bozeman, Montana.
Stock analysis
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) currently trades at $701.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $782.35, implying the stock looks roughly 10% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $647.09 per share, and 6 of the 21 models we run sit above the $701.03 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $270.98, and 15 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $456.33 (bear) to $1,059 (bull), the price of $701.03 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 90/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Fair Isaac Corporation reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was $652M in FY2025, compounding +13.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $15.9B Large · P/E ratio 20.4 · P/S ratio 6.65 · EPS (TTM) $34.35 · Net margin 34.1% · Return on equity 35.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 40.6% · Operating margin 53.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 98 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 12%, FICO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$456.33Fair Value $782.35Bull$1,059
Price $701.03 · Upside +11.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($34.35 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $1.4M and none bought.
SaleEva ManolisDirector3× since Dec 12, 2025: 2,008 shares, avg. $1,466$2.9MJul 29, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJoanna ReesDirector358 shares at $1,360$486,880Feb 13, 2026
SaleSteven P. WeberExecutive Vice President & CFO1,426 shares at $1,810$2.6MDec 17, 2025
SaleMarc F McMorrisDirector240 shares at $1,810$434,287Nov 26, 2025
SaleWilliam J LansingPresident and CEO, Director2,400 shares at $1,733$4.2MNov 10, 2025
Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.0% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+23.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.27.4% vs 25.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 47%
2025 sits 57% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+15.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.4% a year for the price and +12.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The business maintains a strong data-driven moat in credit analytics supported by high margins and switching costs, while high leverage with negative equity creates moderate risk.
Main risk: Generative AI and related tools could lower barriers for lenders to adopt rival scoring or decisioning systems, eroding FICO's advantages in its core analytics and platform offerings.
Bull case: FICO could leverage its own focused AI models and data assets to enhance predictive power across segments and retain lenders through superior performance even amid alternatives.
Bear case: If AI lowers switching costs and rivals like Plaid gain traction while legal pressures mount, FICO's core scoring franchise could face sustained margin pressure and reduced relevance in risk decisions.
FICO has built much of its recent growth on higher prices for mortgage credit scores. It now offers flat pricing in a new Preferred Program that requires lenders to commit to using its scores on every application, even as regulators open the door to cheaper alternatives like VantageScore. Will its edge in predictive analytics and other segments offset the pressure on the core mortgage business, or will competition erode its longstanding advantages there?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 634 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score90 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+11.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets34.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)34.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)53.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)25.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.4× · Cheaper than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)6.65× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow20.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA14.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.70× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)49· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 40
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 30
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fair Isaac Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FICO
Frequently asked questions
Is Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $782.35 versus a price of $701.03, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FICO?
Our model-based fair value for Fair Isaac Corporation is $782.35 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $701.03.
What is the quality score of FICO?
Fair Isaac Corporation has a Quality Score of 90/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $782.35 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $456.33, optimistic scenario $1,059. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Fair Isaac Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $782.35, about +12% upside versus a price of $701.03 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $456.33, optimistic scenario $1,059. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)?
Fair Isaac Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Fair Isaac Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +14.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.0 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FICO use?
Our models discount Fair Isaac Corporation at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Fair Isaac Corporation that is +14.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Fair Isaac Corporation grew +9.0 % a year. The price currently implies +14.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Fair Isaac Corporation (+14.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.84 %: that much free cash flow Fair Isaac Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Fair Isaac Corporation it is $782.35 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $701.03. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Fair Isaac Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, FICO trades below its calculated fair value: price $701.03, fair value $782.35, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FICO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($701.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($782.35). For Fair Isaac Corporation the two are $81.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Fair Isaac Corporation worth?
The market values Fair Isaac Corporation at about $15.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $701.03; our models calculate a fair value of $782.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FICO?
Our models span a range for Fair Isaac Corporation: cautious scenario $456.33, base $782.35, optimistic $1,059 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $701.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FICO?
Fair Isaac Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $782.35 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2017, FY2020, FY2021 ex one-offs: 47.8. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/S 6.6, EV/EBITDA 14.6.
What is the PEG ratio of FICO?
The PEG ratio of Fair Isaac Corporation is 0.70 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Fair Isaac Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 90/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FICO from its 52-week high?
Fair Isaac Corporation trades at $701.03, about 62% below its 52-week high of $1,845 and 18% above the low of $592.47 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $782.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Fair Isaac Corporation?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Salesforce, Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Fair Isaac Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $701.03, calculated fair value $782.35 (+12%), Quality Score 90/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FICO calculated?
We run Fair Isaac Corporation through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $782.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Fair Isaac Corporation currently trades 10% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $701.03. Our model-based fair value is $782.35, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Fair Isaac Corporation right now?
A fairly wide model range ($456.33 to $1,059) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) come from?
Earnings per share at Fair Isaac Corporation grew +24.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.0 %, EBIT margin +10.0 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Fair Isaac Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)?
The market capitalisation of Fair Isaac Corporation is $15.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Fair Isaac Corporation is 6.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)?
Earnings per share at Fair Isaac Corporation are $34.35 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)?
The net margin of Fair Isaac Corporation is 34.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Fair Isaac Corporation is 35.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Fair Isaac Corporation is 40.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)?
The operating margin of Fair Isaac Corporation is 53.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)?
Revenue at Fair Isaac Corporation is growing +25.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)?
Earnings per share at Fair Isaac Corporation are growing +41.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) carry?
The net debt of Fair Isaac Corporation is $2.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026