Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $28.1B
Fair Isaac Corporation
FICO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −20.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 61% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($531.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($268.31 to $531.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $341.44 – $2,382 · fair‑value band $268.31 – $531.72 · the $1,032 price screens above the $400.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) currently trades at $1,032, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $400.01, implying the stock looks roughly 61.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Fair Isaac Corporation generated revenue of $2.3B at a net margin of 33.7%. Revenue grew 38.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 35.6%. Net debt stands at $2.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $268.31 (bear case) to $531.72 (bull case); at $1,032, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -61%, FICO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($511.03) versus Growth DCF ($246.24). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 83 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Fair Isaac Corporation provides analytics software in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Scores and Software.
Full company description
Fair Isaac Corporation provides analytics software in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Scores and Software. The Scores segment offers business-to-business scoring solutions and services that give clients access to predictive credit and other scores that can be integrated into their transaction streams and decision-making processes, as well as business-to-consumer scoring solutions comprising myFICO.com subscription offerings. Its Software segment provides pre-configured analytic and decision management solution designed for various business needs or processes, such as account origination, customer management, customer engagement, fraud detection, and marketing, as well as associated professional services. This segment also offers FICO Platform, a modular software offering designed to support advanced analytic and decision use cases, as well as stand-alone analytic and decisioning software that can be configured by customers to address a wide range of business use cases. In addition, the company offers analytic and decisioning software comprising FICO Decision Modeler, FICO Blaze Advisor, FICO Xpress Optimization, FICO Analytics Workbench, FICO Data Orchestrator, FICO DMP Streaming, FICO Business Outcome Simulator, and FICO Decision Optimizer; pre-configured solutions consisting of FICO Fraud Solutions, FICO Originations, FICO Customer Communication Service, FICO Strategy Director, and FICO TRIAD Customer Manager; and professional services software, including FICO Implementation Services and FICO Analytic Services. It markets its products and services primarily through its direct sales organization and indirect channels, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Fair Isaac & Company, Inc. and changed its name to Fair Isaac Corporation in July 1992. Fair Isaac Corporation was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Bozeman, Montana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Fair Isaac Corporation reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was $652M in FY2025, compounding +13.6%/yr from FY2021.
FICO screens 61% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Why Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Stock Is Trading Lower Today
- FICO Q2 Deep Dive: Mortgage Market Volatility and Platform Expansion Shape Outlook
- Fair Isaac (FICO) Stock Sees Modest Fair Value Cut As Analysts Split On Outlook
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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