Fibra Nova (FNOVA17) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · MX · Market cap 14.9B MXN
Fair value as of: Jul 10, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Share price +57.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 70% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (20.38 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (9.86 MXN to 20.38 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 13.71 MXN – 44.27 MXN · fair‑value band 9.86 MXN – 20.38 MXN · the 44.27 MXN price screens above the 13.38 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 10, 2026.
Analysis
Fibra Nova (FNOVA17) currently trades at 44.27 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 13.38 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 69.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at 1.6B MXN. Revenue grew 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.3%. Net debt stands at 1.6B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 10, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 9.86 MXN (bear case) to 20.38 MXN (bull case); at 44.27 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -70%, FNOVA17 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (14.93 MXN) versus Dividend Discount (2.64 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Fibra Nova is headquartered in Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Fibra Nova reported revenue of 671M MXN in FY2025 versus 525M MXN in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was 392M MXN in FY2025, compounding +28.6%/yr from FY2021.
FNOVA17 screens 70% overvalued. Compare with Goodman Group →
Peer Group
REIT - Diversified · 165 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 10, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goodman Group GMG | A$29.11 | A$7.37 | -75% |
| VICI Properties Inc VICI | $26.73 | $41.74 | +56% |
| W. P. Carey Inc WPC | $76.69 | $35.59 | -54% |
| Charter Hall Group CHC | A$21.90 | A$11.46 | -48% |
| Fibra Uno FUNO11 | 31.10 MXN | 63.56 MXN | +104% |
| COV COV | €52.55 | €62.39 | +19% |
| The GPT Group GPT | A$4.89 | A$3.49 | -29% |
| Mirvac Group MGR | A$1.70 | A$0.5700 | -66% |
| KLCC Property Holdings 5235SS | 8.85 MYR | 6.91 MYR | -22% |
| CRRUN CRRUN | C$17.65 | C$17.89 | +1% |
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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