Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Friedman Industries Inc. $18.07, price $39.47, upside -54.2%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.82 – $48.08 · fair‑value band $13.72 – $21.90 · the $39.47 price screens above the $18.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Friedman Industries, Incorporated engages in the manufacture and processing of steel products in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Flat-Roll Products and Tubular Products.
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Friedman Industries, Incorporated engages in the manufacture and processing of steel products in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Flat-Roll Products and Tubular Products. The Flat-Roll Product segment is involved in the operation of hot-rolled coil processing facilities to cut the coils into sheets and plates, as well as the provision of process and storage services for customer-owned coils on a fee basis. The Tubular Product segment manufactures line and oil country pipes, as well as pipes for structural applications. The company serves metals distributors and customers manufacturing products, such as metal buildings, railcars, heavy equipment, tanks and containers, trailers, component parts, and other fabricated metal products. Friedman Industries, Incorporated was incorporated in 1965 and is headquartered in Longview, Texas.
Stock analysis
Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock (FRD) currently trades at $39.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.07, implying the stock looks roughly 118.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $42.77 per share, and 5 of the 23 models we run sit above the $39.47 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $7.89, and 18 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.72 (bear) to $21.90 (bull), the price of $39.47 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $647M in FY2026 versus $285M in FY2022, a compound +22.7%/yr. Reported net income was $19.5M in FY2026, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $275M · P/E ratio 10.5 · P/S ratio 0.32 · EPS (TTM) $3.77 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 3.0% · Return on equity 18.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 133% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −54%, FRD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.72Fair Value $18.07Bull $21.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.76 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+45.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +23.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8% vs 50%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 417 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−54% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth78% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.63× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)10.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.81× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.37× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF199.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA8.2× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 4
PAST (return on equity)72· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)68· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)8· sector 51
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FRD
Frequently asked questions
Is Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.07 versus a price of $39.47, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FRD?
Our model-based fair value for Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock is $18.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $39.47.
What is the quality score of FRD?
Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.72, optimistic scenario $21.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.07, about −54% upside versus a price of $39.47 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.72, optimistic scenario $21.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $752M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock pay a dividend?
Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +38.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FRD use?
Our models discount Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock at 14.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.62, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock grew +38.7 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.50 %: that much free cash flow Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock it is $18.07 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $39.47. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, FRD trades above its calculated fair value: price $39.47, fair value $18.07, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FRD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($39.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.07). For Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock the two are $21.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock at about $275M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $39.47; our models calculate a fair value of $18.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FRD?
Our models span a range for Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock: cautious scenario $13.72, base $18.07, optimistic $21.90 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $39.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FRD?
Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 8.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.1%, debt of 0.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FRD from its 52-week high?
Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock trades at $39.47, about 18% below its 52-week high of $48.08 and 133% above the low of $16.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $39.47, calculated fair value $18.07 (−54%), Quality Score 54/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FRD calculated?
We run Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $39.47. Our model-based fair value is $18.07, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) come from?
Earnings per share at Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock grew +47.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.6 %, EBIT margin +27.0 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock
How large is the market capitalisation of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
The market capitalisation of Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock is $275M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock is 0.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
Earnings per share at Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock are $3.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
The dividend yield of Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock is 0.4% (payout 4.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
The net margin of Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock is 3.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock is 18.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock is 9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
The operating margin of Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
Revenue at Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock is growing +78.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
Earnings per share at Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock are growing +152% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) carry?
The net debt of Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock is $98.5M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 71.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026