Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Friedman Industries Inc. stock $18.56, price $36.00, that is 48.4% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.82 – $48.03 · fair‑value band $13.72 – $30.99 · the $36.00 price screens above the $18.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Friedman Industries, Incorporated engages in the manufacture and processing of steel products in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Flat-Roll Products and Tubular Products.
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The Flat-Roll Product segment is involved in the operation of hot-rolled coil processing facilities to cut the coils into sheets and plates, as well as the provision of process and storage services for customer-owned coils on a fee basis.
The Tubular Product segment manufactures line and oil country pipes, as well as pipes for structural applications.
The company serves metals distributors and customers manufacturing products, such as metal buildings, railcars, heavy equipment, tanks and containers, trailers, component parts, and other fabricated metal products.
Friedman Industries, Incorporated was incorporated in 1965 and is headquartered in Longview, Texas.
Stock analysis
Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) currently trades at $36.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.56, 48% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $42.77 per share, and 5 of the 22 models we run sit above the $36.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.94, and 17 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.72 (bear) to $30.99 (bull), the price of $36.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $647M in FY2026 versus $285M in FY2022, a compound +22.7%/yr. Reported net income was $19.5M in FY2026, compounding +8.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $251M Micro · P/E ratio 6.3 · P/S ratio 0.28 · EPS (TTM) $5.69 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 25.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 113% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −48%, FRD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$13.72Fair Value $18.56Bull$30.99
Price $36.00 · Downside -48.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.38 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
BuyGaurav ChhibbarChief Operating Officer2× since Feb 19, 2026: 1,400 shares, avg. $17.95$25,126Mar 18, 2026
BuyMike J TaylorPresident / CEO / Director, Director6× since Nov 21, 2025: 4,100 shares, avg. $18.87$77,370Mar 9, 2026
BuySandra Kay ScottDirector1,000 shares at $20.16$20,160Dec 1, 2025
Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+45.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +23.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 8.4% / 49.7%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+78.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +73.9% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (52 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 410 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−48.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)25.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)4.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)88.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.63× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FRD
Frequently asked questions
Is Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.56 versus a price of $36.00, about 48% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FRD?
Our model-based fair value for Friedman Industries Inc. is $18.56 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.00.
What is the quality score of FRD?
Friedman Industries Inc. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.56 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.72, optimistic scenario $30.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.56, about 48% lower versus a price of $36.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.72, optimistic scenario $30.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
Friedman Industries Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $887M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock pay a dividend?
Friedman Industries Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.44% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Friedman Industries Inc. pays a dividend of $0.16 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 23, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1985. The payout ratio is 2.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.19 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Friedman Industries Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +78.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +38.7 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FRD use?
Our models discount Friedman Industries Inc. at 14.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.58, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Friedman Industries Inc. that is +78.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (14.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Friedman Industries Inc. grew +38.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +78.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Friedman Industries Inc. (+78.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.55 %: that much free cash flow Friedman Industries Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Friedman Industries Inc. it is $18.56 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $36.00. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, FRD trades above its calculated fair value: price $36.00, fair value $18.56, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FRD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.56). For Friedman Industries Inc. the two are $17.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values Friedman Industries Inc. at about $251M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $36.00; our models calculate a fair value of $18.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FRD?
Our models span a range for Friedman Industries Inc.: cautious scenario $13.72, base $18.56, optimistic $30.99 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $36.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FRD?
Friedman Industries Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.56 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2026), reported earnings: 7.0. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Friedman Industries Inc. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 25.5%, debt of 0.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FRD from its 52-week high?
Friedman Industries Inc. trades at $36.00, about 25% below its 52-week high of $48.03 and 113% above the low of $16.94 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $36.00, calculated fair value $18.56 (−48%), Quality Score 55/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FRD calculated?
We run Friedman Industries Inc. through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $18.56 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Friedman Industries Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $36.00. Our model-based fair value is $18.56, about 48% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Friedman Industries Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($30.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($13.72 to $30.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) come from?
Earnings per share at Friedman Industries Inc. grew +47.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.6 %, EBIT margin +27.0 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Friedman Industries Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
The market capitalisation of Friedman Industries Inc. is $251M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Friedman Industries Inc. is 0.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
Earnings per share at Friedman Industries Inc. are $5.69 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
The dividend yield of Friedman Industries Inc. is 0.4% (payout 2.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
The net margin of Friedman Industries Inc. is 4.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Friedman Industries Inc. is 25.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Friedman Industries Inc. is 9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
The operating margin of Friedman Industries Inc. is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
Revenue at Friedman Industries Inc. is growing +88.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD)?
Earnings per share at Friedman Industries Inc. are growing +590% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Friedman Industries Inc. (FRD) carry?
The net debt of Friedman Industries Inc. is $98.5M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 71.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026