Fastly, Inc (FSLY) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $3.1B
Fastly, Inc
FSLY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $17.82 to $3.87 (−78.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +16.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 83% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($2.23 to $5.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.00 – $61.08 · fair‑value band $2.23 – $5.51 · the $22.96 price screens above the $3.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Fastly, Inc (FSLY) currently trades at $22.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.87, implying the stock looks roughly 83.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Fastly, Inc generated revenue of $653M at a net margin of -15.8%. Revenue grew 19.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -10.7%. Net debt stands at $250M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.23 (bear case) to $5.51 (bull case); at $22.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 265% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -83%, FSLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($8.29) versus Asset-Based ($3.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Fastly, Inc. operates an edge cloud platform for processing, serving, and securing its customer's applications in the United States, the Asia Pacific, Europe, and internationally. The edge cloud is a category of Infrastructure as a Service that enables developers to build, secure, and deliver digital experiences at the edge of the internet.
Full company description
Fastly, Inc. operates an edge cloud platform for processing, serving, and securing its customer's applications in the United States, the Asia Pacific, Europe, and internationally. The edge cloud is a category of Infrastructure as a Service that enables developers to build, secure, and deliver digital experiences at the edge of the internet. The company offers network services to speed up and optimize the delivery of web and application traffic; content delivery network, such as dynamic site acceleration, origin shield, instant purge, surrogate keys, programmatic control, content compression, reliability features, fanout, domainr, modern protocols and performance services; staging environment; and video/ streaming solutions and services, including live streaming, live event monitoring, video on demand, cache reservation, and media shield. It also provides security solutions, such as DDoS protection, next-gen WAF, bot management, API and ATO protection, advanced rate limiting, privacy, and compliance services; load balancing; image optimization; and origin connect. In addition, the company offers professional services comprising managed and response security services; managed CDN; and support plans services. It serves customers operating in ecommerce, streaming media, gaming, digital publishing, and high tech to financial services industries. The company was formerly known as SkyCache, Inc. and changed its name to Fastly, Inc. in May 2012. Fastly, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Fastly, Inc reported revenue of $624M in FY2025 versus $354M in FY2021, a compound +15.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$122M in FY2025.
FSLY screens 83% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Fastly Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- 2 Analysts Just Upped Their Price Targets on Fastly Stock. Here's Why.
- Fastly (FSLY) Stock Looks Overvalued Despite A Strong 299% Return
- Is Fastly (FSLY) Fully Valued On Its Experian Agent Trust Deal?
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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