FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what FTAI Aviation Ltd. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.14 – $308.99 · fair‑value band $63.94 – $290.69 · the $190.74 price screens above the $95.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
FTAI Aviation Ltd. owns, acquires, and sells aviation equipment for the transportation of goods and people worldwide. It operates in two segments, Aviation Leasing and Aerospace Products. The Aviation Leasing segment owns, leases, manages, and sells aircraft and aircraft engines.
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FTAI Aviation Ltd. owns, acquires, and sells aviation equipment for the transportation of goods and people worldwide. It operates in two segments, Aviation Leasing and Aerospace Products. The Aviation Leasing segment owns, leases, manages, and sells aircraft and aircraft engines. As of December 31, 2025, this segment owned and managed 290 aviation assets consisting of 47 commercial aircraft and 243 engines, including eight aircraft and seventeen engines in Russia. The Aerospace Products segment develops, manufactures, repairs/refurbishes, and sells aircraft engines and aftermarket components for the commercial aircraft engines. It also engages in the offshore energy business, which consists of vessels and equipment that support offshore oil and gas activities and production. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) currently trades at $190.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $95.49, implying the stock looks roughly 99.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $223.61 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the $190.74 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $22.82, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $63.94 (bear) to $290.69 (bull), the price of $190.74 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
FTAI Aviation Ltd. reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $336M in FY2021, a compound +65.3%/yr. Reported net income was $501M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $21.4B · P/E ratio 38.1 · P/S ratio 7.61 · EPS (TTM) $5.01 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 20.0% · Return on equity 233% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −50%, FTAI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $63.94Fair Value $95.49Bull $290.69
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.55 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+43.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+51.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+46.6%
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+65.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +13.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13% vs 42%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 31%
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 284% above its own trend.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 232 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside−51% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)233% · Top 25%
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth66% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity10.32× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)38.1× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)7.55× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA24.1× · Pricier than median
PEG3.22× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 46
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)16· sector 17
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $95.49 versus a price of $190.74, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FTAI?
Our model-based fair value for FTAI Aviation Ltd. is $95.49 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $190.74.
What is the quality score of FTAI?
FTAI Aviation Ltd. has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $95.49 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $63.94, optimistic scenario $290.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FTAI Aviation Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $95.49, about −50% upside versus a price of $190.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $63.94, optimistic scenario $290.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)?
FTAI Aviation Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does FTAI Aviation Ltd. pay a dividend?
FTAI Aviation Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.79% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FTAI Aviation Ltd. it is $95.49 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $190.74. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is FTAI Aviation Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, FTAI trades above its calculated fair value: price $190.74, fair value $95.49, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FTAI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($190.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($95.49). For FTAI Aviation Ltd. the two are $95.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FTAI Aviation Ltd. worth?
The market values FTAI Aviation Ltd. at about $21.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $190.74; our models calculate a fair value of $95.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FTAI?
Our models span a range for FTAI Aviation Ltd.: cautious scenario $63.94, base $95.49, optimistic $290.69 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $190.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FTAI?
FTAI Aviation Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.1 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $95.49 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.2, P/S 7.6, EV/EBITDA 24.1.
What is the PEG ratio of FTAI?
The PEG ratio of FTAI Aviation Ltd. is 3.22 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)?
Balance-sheet figures for FTAI Aviation Ltd. (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 233.3%, debt of 10.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FTAI from its 52-week high?
FTAI Aviation Ltd. trades at $190.74, about 41% below its 52-week high of $322.42 and 77% above the low of $107.64 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $95.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FTAI Aviation Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FTAI Aviation Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $190.74, calculated fair value $95.49 (−50%), Quality Score 44/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FTAI calculated?
We run FTAI Aviation Ltd. through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $95.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. FTAI Aviation Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $190.74. Our model-based fair value is $95.49, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FTAI Aviation Ltd. right now?
Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($63.94 to $290.69). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of FTAI Aviation Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)?
The market capitalisation of FTAI Aviation Ltd. is $21.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FTAI Aviation Ltd. is 7.61 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)?
Earnings per share at FTAI Aviation Ltd. are $5.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)?
The dividend yield of FTAI Aviation Ltd. is 0.8% (payout 29.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)?
The net margin of FTAI Aviation Ltd. is 20.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FTAI Aviation Ltd. is 233% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FTAI Aviation Ltd. is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)?
The operating margin of FTAI Aviation Ltd. is 22.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)?
Revenue at FTAI Aviation Ltd. is growing +65.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +51.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)?
Earnings per share at FTAI Aviation Ltd. are growing +48.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) generate?
The free cash flow of FTAI Aviation Ltd. is −$1.1B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) carry?
The net debt of FTAI Aviation Ltd. is $3.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 18, 2026