Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd ZAR 23.36, price ZAR 6.05, upside +286.1%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R1.66 – R6.97 · fair‑value band R16.09 – R32.21 · the R6.05 price screens below the R23.36 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Frontier Transport Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates in the transport sector in South Africa. It operates in two segments, Passenger transport services and Vehicle and spares " sales and servicing. The company operates diesel buses, electric buses and luxury charter coaches.
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Frontier Transport Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates in the transport sector in South Africa. It operates in two segments, Passenger transport services and Vehicle and spares " sales and servicing. The company operates diesel buses, electric buses and luxury charter coaches. It also provides public transport, school and private tours, luxury coaches, shuttle services, as well as involved in parts and spares sales. The company was formerly known as Hosken Passenger Logistics and Rail Limited and changed its name to Frontier Transport Holdings Limited in September 2021. Frontier Transport Holdings Limited was founded in 1861 and is based in Cape Town, South Africa. Frontier Transport Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Hosken Consolidated Investments Limited.
Stock analysis
Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH) currently trades at R6.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R23.36, implying the stock looks roughly 74.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R24.77 per share, and 25 of the 26 models we run sit above the R6.05 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R4.11, and 1 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R16.09 (bear) to R32.21 (bull), the price of R6.05 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 2.8B ZAR in FY2026 versus 2.1B ZAR in FY2022, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was 382M ZAR in FY2026, compounding +10.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 1.8B ZAC · P/E ratio 4.8 · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) R1.27 · Dividend yield 11.2% · Net margin 13.5% · Return on equity 21.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 286%, FTH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R16.09Fair Value R23.36Bull R32.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.3032 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+18.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)11.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.5% vs 6.1%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 19%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −17.0% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)13.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)21.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)11.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FTH
Frequently asked questions
Is Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R23.36 versus a price of R6.05, about +286% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of FTH?
Our model-based fair value for Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd is R23.36 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R6.05.
What is the quality score of FTH?
Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R23.36 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R16.09, optimistic scenario R32.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R23.36, about +286% upside versus a price of R6.05 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R16.09, optimistic scenario R32.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.9B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -14.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FTH use?
Our models discount Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd at 14.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd that is -14.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd grew +11.6 % a year. The price currently implies -14.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (-14.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 28.34 %: that much free cash flow Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd it is R23.36 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R6.05. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, FTH trades below its calculated fair value: price R6.05, fair value R23.36, a gap of about +286% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FTH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R6.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R23.36). For Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd the two are R17.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd at about 1.8B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R6.05; our models calculate a fair value of R23.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FTH?
Our models span a range for Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario R16.09, base R23.36, optimistic R32.21 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R6.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FTH?
Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R23.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 2.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 21.8%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FTH from its 52-week high?
Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd trades at R6.05, about 10% below its 52-week high of R6.73 and 16% above the low of R5.21 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R23.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R6.05, calculated fair value R23.36 (+286%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FTH calculated?
We run Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R23.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd currently trades 74 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R6.05. Our model-based fair value is R23.36, about +286% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R16.09). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (R16.09 to R32.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH) come from?
Earnings per share at Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd grew +7.3 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.6 %, EBIT margin −1.3 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
The market capitalisation of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd is 1.8B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd is 0.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
Earnings per share at Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd are R1.27 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
The dividend yield of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd is 11.2% (payout 53.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
The net margin of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd is 13.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd is 21.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd is 18.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
The operating margin of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd is 21.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
Revenue at Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd is growing −7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH)?
Earnings per share at Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd are growing +10.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd (FTH) carry?
The net debt of Frontier Transport Holdings Ltd is 47.6M ZAC (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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