GEA GROUP (G1A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of GEA GROUP stock €49.48, price €69.70, that is 29.0% below the price, quality 71 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €28.87 – €69.95 · fair‑value band €36.64 – €66.76 · the €69.70 price screens above the €49.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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GEA Group produces and supplies systems and components to the food, beverage, and pharmaceutical industries worldwide.
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The company operates through Separation & Flow Technologies; Liquid & Power Technologies; Food & Health Technologies; Farm Technologies; and Heating & Refrigeration Technologies segments.
It manufactures process-related components and machinery, notably separators, decanters, homogenizers, valves, and pumps; and process solutions, including brewing systems, liquid processing and filling, concentration, fermentation, crystallization, purification, drying, powder handling, and packaging, as well as systems for carbon capture and emission control for dairy, new-food, beverage, food, chemical, and other industries.
The company also prepares, marinates, and processes meat, poultry, seafood, vegan products, and snack and pasta, as well as slicing, packaging lines, freeze drying, granulators, and tablet presses for pharmaceutical industry.
In addition, it offers customer solutions for milk production and livestock farming comprising automatic milking and feeding system, conventional milking solutions, manure handling, and digital herd management tools; and energy solutions in the field of industrial refrigeration and heating for various industries, including food, beverage, dairy, oil and gas, supporting automation, digital, and service platform.
The company was formerly known as mg technologies ag and changed its name to GEA Group in 2005. GEA Group was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Düsseldorf, Germany.
Stock analysis
GEA GROUP (G1A) currently trades at €69.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €49.48, 29% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €53.40 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the €69.70 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €13.91, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €36.64 (bear) to €66.76 (bull), the price of €69.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
GEA GROUP reported revenue of €5.5B in FY2025 versus €4.7B in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was €414M in FY2025, compounding +7.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €11.3B Large · P/E ratio 26.2 · P/S ratio 2.01 · EPS (TTM) €2.67 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 7.7% · Return on equity 18.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −29%, G1A screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€36.64Fair Value €49.48Bull€66.76
Price €69.70 · Downside -29.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.16 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.9% vs 4.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.1% a year for the price and +2.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: GEA's main strength lies in robust order intake from food, dairy and pharma backed by large projects supporting revenue into 2027-2028, while its main weakness remains thin evidence of any durable moat and limited public data on competitive factors.
Main risk: Alfa Laval as a named rival with broader exposure and higher margins in separation and heat transfer could intensify pricing pressure on GEA's large food and dairy projects and compress margins.
Bull case: GEA could integrate its monitoring solutions based on artificial intelligence and its heat pump solutions more deeply into customer decarbonization roadmaps to win larger sustainable projects and defend margins against rivals.
Bear case: If rivals like Alfa Laval capture more share or customers switch to alternative low-carbon technologies, GEA's project pipeline could shrink and margins on remaining equipment orders could erode faster than service growth offsets.
GEA keeps reporting robust order intake in food, dairy and pharma, backed by large projects that management says will support revenue into 2027 and possibly 2028. Our models still see the stock as overvalued on the raised 2026 targets. Will the extended project pipeline deliver the expected cash conversion, or will execution delays in a slowing industrial cycle erode margins faster than the backlog can offset?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 807 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−29.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)7.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.9% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)26.2× · Pricier than median
P/B4.63× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.01× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow24.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA14.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.99× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)50· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)74· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)37· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GEA GROUP Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/G1A
Frequently asked questions
Is GEA GROUP (G1A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €49.48 versus a price of €69.70, about 29% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of G1A?
Our model-based fair value for GEA GROUP is €49.48 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €69.70.
What is the quality score of G1A?
GEA GROUP has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GEA GROUP (G1A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €49.48 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €36.64, optimistic scenario €66.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GEA GROUP stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €49.48, about 29% lower versus a price of €69.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €36.64, optimistic scenario €66.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GEA GROUP (G1A)?
GEA GROUP reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €5.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does GEA GROUP pay a dividend?
GEA GROUP currently shows a dividend yield of 1.87% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into GEA GROUP (G1A)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, GEA GROUP would have to grow free cash flow by +8.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.5 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of G1A use?
Our models discount GEA GROUP at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.76, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For GEA GROUP that is +8.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has GEA GROUP (G1A) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at GEA GROUP grew +3.5 % a year. The price currently implies +8.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of GEA GROUP (G1A) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into GEA GROUP (+8.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of GEA GROUP (G1A)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.17 %: that much free cash flow GEA GROUP produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of GEA GROUP (G1A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GEA GROUP it is €49.48 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of €69.70. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GEA GROUP stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, G1A trades above its calculated fair value: price €69.70, fair value €49.48, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of G1A?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€69.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€49.48). For GEA GROUP the two are €20.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GEA GROUP worth?
The market values GEA GROUP at about €11.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is €69.70; our models calculate a fair value of €49.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about G1A?
Our models span a range for GEA GROUP: cautious scenario €36.64, base €49.48, optimistic €66.76 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price €69.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of G1A?
GEA GROUP trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.2 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €49.48 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 25.4 (reported for FY2025: 27.4). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 25.9. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 4.6, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 14.3.
What is the PEG ratio of G1A?
The PEG ratio of GEA GROUP is 0.99 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of GEA GROUP (G1A)?
Balance-sheet figures for GEA GROUP (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 18.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is G1A from its 52-week high?
GEA GROUP trades at €69.70, at its 52-week high of €69.95 and 30% above the low of €53.65 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €49.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GEA GROUP?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GEA GROUP stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price €69.70, calculated fair value €49.48 (−29%), Quality Score 71/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of G1A calculated?
We run GEA GROUP through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €49.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. GEA GROUP itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GEA GROUP (G1A)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €69.70. Our model-based fair value is €49.48, about 29% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GEA GROUP right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€66.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (71/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€36.64 to €66.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of GEA GROUP (G1A) come from?
Earnings per share at GEA GROUP grew +3.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.6 %, EBIT margin +1.1 %, tax rate −1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of GEA GROUP
How large is the market capitalisation of GEA GROUP (G1A)?
The market capitalisation of GEA GROUP is €11.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GEA GROUP (G1A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GEA GROUP is 2.01 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GEA GROUP (G1A)?
Earnings per share at GEA GROUP are €2.67 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of GEA GROUP (G1A)?
The dividend yield of GEA GROUP is 1.9% (payout 45.2%, on adjusted earnings, reported 48.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of GEA GROUP (G1A)?
The net margin of GEA GROUP is 7.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GEA GROUP (G1A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GEA GROUP is 18.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GEA GROUP (G1A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GEA GROUP is 8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GEA GROUP (G1A)?
The operating margin of GEA GROUP is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GEA GROUP (G1A)?
Revenue at GEA GROUP is growing +10.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GEA GROUP (G1A)?
Earnings per share at GEA GROUP are growing +13.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does GEA GROUP (G1A) hold?
GEA GROUP holds more cash than debt, €379M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026