Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Gaon Group Ltd ILS 10.16, price ILS 23.32, upside -56.4%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2.51 ILA – 23.65 ILA · fair‑value band 6.48 ILA – 13.66 ILA · the 23.32 ILA price screens above the 10.16 ILA fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Gaon Group Ltd. operates as a flow infrastructure group in Israel. The company offers steel pipes for water, sewage, fuel and gas infrastructures industries.
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Gaon Group Ltd. operates as a flow infrastructure group in Israel. The company offers steel pipes for water, sewage, fuel and gas infrastructures industries. It also provides centric butterfly, double eccentric high pressure butterfly, rising and non-rising axis wedge, diaphragm, fire extinguishing, filters, and check valves; ball valves, ball valves and accessories; water infrastructures, sewerage and drainage, gas systems, electricity and telecommunication, industry, fire extinguishing, plumbing, agriculture, and household; and AMR/AMI, and plastic pipes. The company was formerly known as Middle East Tube Company Ltd. and changed its name to Gaon Group Ltd. in March 2017. Gaon Group Ltd. was incorporated in 1951 and is based in Or Yehuda, Israel. Gaon Group Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of B. Gaon Holdings Ltd.
Stock analysis
Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR) currently trades at 23.32 ILA, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 10.16 ILA, implying the stock looks roughly 129.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 12.51 ILA per share, and 1 of the 23 models we run sit above the 23.32 ILA price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 6.53 ILA, and 22 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 6.48 ILA (bear) to 13.66 ILA (bull), the price of 23.32 ILA sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Gaon Group Ltd reported revenue of 704M ILS in FY2025 versus 498M ILS in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was 33.5M ILS in FY2025, compounding +17.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1B ILA · P/E ratio 30.3 · P/S ratio 1.44 · EPS (TTM) 0.7700 ILA · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1% · Operating margin 11.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 254% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −56%, GAGR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 6.48 ILAFair Value 10.16 ILABull 13.66 ILA
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.5654 ILS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.53/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+13.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17% vs 9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 10%
2025 sits 157% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+63.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Israel: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +60.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 417 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−56% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)30.3× · Pricier than median
P/B0.79× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.49× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF36.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA3.7× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)22· sector 4
PAST (return on equity)32· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 51
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gaon Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GAGR
Frequently asked questions
Is Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 10.16 ILA versus a price of 23.32 ILA, about −56% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GAGR?
Our model-based fair value for Gaon Group Ltd is 10.16 ILA (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 23.32 ILA.
What is the quality score of GAGR?
Gaon Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 10.16 ILA (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 6.48 ILA, optimistic scenario 13.66 ILA. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gaon Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 10.16 ILA, about −56% upside versus a price of 23.32 ILA (overvalued). Cautious scenario 6.48 ILA, optimistic scenario 13.66 ILA. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR)?
Gaon Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 712M ILS (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gaon Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +63.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GAGR use?
Our models discount Gaon Group Ltd at 14.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Israel. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gaon Group Ltd that is +63.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gaon Group Ltd grew +6.6 % a year. The price currently implies +63.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gaon Group Ltd (+63.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.90 %: that much free cash flow Gaon Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gaon Group Ltd it is 10.16 ILA per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 23.32 ILA. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gaon Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GAGR trades above its calculated fair value: price 23.32 ILA, fair value 10.16 ILA, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GAGR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (23.32 ILA); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (10.16 ILA). For Gaon Group Ltd the two are 13.16 ILA per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gaon Group Ltd worth?
The market values Gaon Group Ltd at about 1.1B ILA (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 23.32 ILA; our models calculate a fair value of 10.16 ILA per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GAGR?
Our models span a range for Gaon Group Ltd: cautious scenario 6.48 ILA, base 10.16 ILA, optimistic 13.66 ILA per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 23.32 ILA). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GAGR?
Gaon Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 10.16 ILA is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 3.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gaon Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GAGR from its 52-week high?
Gaon Group Ltd trades at 23.32 ILA, about 1% below its 52-week high of 23.65 ILA and 254% above the low of 6.59 ILA (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 10.16 ILA is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gaon Group Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gaon Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 23.32 ILA, calculated fair value 10.16 ILA (−56%), Quality Score 55/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GAGR calculated?
We run Gaon Group Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 10.16 ILA, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Gaon Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 23.32 ILA. Our model-based fair value is 10.16 ILA, about −56% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gaon Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (13.66 ILA). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (6.48 ILA to 13.66 ILA) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR) come from?
Earnings per share at Gaon Group Ltd grew +3.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.0 %, EBIT margin +11.8 %, tax rate −2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −10.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gaon Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR)?
The market capitalisation of Gaon Group Ltd is 1.1B ILA. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gaon Group Ltd is 1.44 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR)?
Earnings per share at Gaon Group Ltd are 0.7700 ILA (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR)?
The net margin of Gaon Group Ltd is 4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gaon Group Ltd is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gaon Group Ltd is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR)?
The operating margin of Gaon Group Ltd is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR)?
Revenue at Gaon Group Ltd is growing +4.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR)?
Earnings per share at Gaon Group Ltd are growing +14.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gaon Group Ltd (GAGR) carry?
The net debt of Gaon Group Ltd is 366M ILA (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 38.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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