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Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. TRY 193, price TRY 134, upside +43.9%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · TR · ISIN TRAGARAN91N1

TG Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. logo Some data Sep 18, 2026

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S.

GARAN · IS

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value 192.70 TRY · Undervalued (+44%)
!Quality 46/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +60.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 31.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/13)
✓Wide moat 77/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

158.59 TRY 6.57 TRY Fair Value 192.70 TRY Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 6.57 TRY – 158.59 TRY · fair‑value band 142.88 TRY – 303.33 TRY · the 133.90 TRY price screens below the 192.70 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. provides various banking products and services in Turkey.

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Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. provides various banking products and services in Turkey. It offers current, savings, time deposit, e-savings, YUVAM, NET, ELMA, overdraft, and gold accounts; SME general purpose, auto, mortgage, commercial, foreign currency spot, installment loans, and project loans, as well as IBOR reforms and foreign trade financing; investment funds, stocks, derivatives, Garanti BBVA e-trader platform, time barred deposit and investment lists, and derivative instruments; credit and debit cards, BonusFlas, and POS and e-commerce products; and insurance and pension products. The company also provides payment systems and services; private banking services; banking services for salary payments/entrepreneurship and women entrepreneurs; leasing fleet factoring services; investment banking and financing services; mobile and internet banking services; and ATM and cash management services. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey. Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. is a subsidiary of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.

Stock analysis

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN) currently trades at 133.90 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 192.70 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 30.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 251.34 TRY per share, and 3 of the 4 models we run sit above the 133.90 TRY price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 70.84 TRY, and 1 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: 142.88 TRY (bear) to 303.33 TRY (bull), the price of 133.90 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. reported revenue of 410B TRY in FY2025 versus 61.6B TRY in FY2021, a compound +60.7%/yr. Reported net income was 110B TRY in FY2025, compounding +70.7%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap 562B TRY (≈ $11.5B) · P/E ratio 4.7 · P/S ratio 1.25 · EPS (TTM) 28.67 TRY · Net margin 26.8% · Return on equity 28.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1% · Operating margin 44.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 44%, GARAN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 142.88 TRY Fair Value 192.70 TRY Bull 303.33 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (20.89 TRY per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income 186.02 TRY 251.34 TRY 1,546 TRY 64
P/E Multiple 254.93 TRY 339.91 TRY 424.88 TRY 63
P/B Multiple 111.02 TRY 148.02 TRY 185.03 TRY 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple 254.93 TRY 339.91 TRY 424.88 TRY 63
P/B Multiple 111.02 TRY 148.02 TRY 185.03 TRY 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 52.87 TRY 70.84 TRY 105.73 TRY 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 186.02 TRY 251.34 TRY 1,546 TRY 64

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 32
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 36
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+42.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+60.0%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−29.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+77.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+77.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2014 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.67% → 27%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1077 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside +85% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 28% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 32% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 44% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 25% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.09× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 4.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.20× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.40× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.78× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)92 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group DBS19 20.20 THB 6.69 THB −67%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.35 HK$78.59 +53%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.73 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDB $23.16 $15.60 −33%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €102.32 €105.99 +4%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €82.92 €77.62 −6%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.15 $9.67 −13%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,359 ₹636.31 −53%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $231.49 $159.52 −31%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 31.28 SGD 19.80 SGD −37%

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Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. · Fair Value
192.70 TRY +31%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GARAN

Frequently asked questions

Is Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 192.70 TRY versus a price of 133.90 TRY, about +44% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GARAN?
Our model-based fair value for Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. is 192.70 TRY (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 133.90 TRY.
What is the quality score of GARAN?
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 192.70 TRY (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 142.88 TRY, optimistic scenario 303.33 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 192.70 TRY, about +44% upside versus a price of 133.90 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 142.88 TRY, optimistic scenario 303.33 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN)?
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 381B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. it is 192.70 TRY per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of 133.90 TRY. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, GARAN trades below its calculated fair value: price 133.90 TRY, fair value 192.70 TRY, a gap of about +44% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GARAN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (133.90 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (192.70 TRY). For Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. the two are 58.80 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. worth?
The market values Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. at about 562B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is 133.90 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 192.70 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GARAN?
Our models span a range for Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S.: cautious scenario 142.88 TRY, base 192.70 TRY, optimistic 303.33 TRY per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price 133.90 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GARAN?
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.7 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 192.70 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.4.
What is the PEG ratio of GARAN?
The PEG ratio of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. is 0.78 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 28.1%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GARAN from its 52-week high?
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. trades at 133.90 TRY, about 18% below its 52-week high of 163.11 TRY and 21% above the low of 110.92 TRY (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 192.70 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price 133.90 TRY, calculated fair value 192.70 TRY (+44%), Quality Score 46/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GARAN calculated?
We run Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 192.70 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. currently trades 44 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was 133.90 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 192.70 TRY, about +44% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (142.88 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (142.88 TRY to 303.33 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S.

How large is the market capitalisation of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN)?
The market capitalisation of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. is 562B TRY (≈ $11.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. is 1.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN)?
Earnings per share at Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. are 28.67 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN)?
The net margin of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. is 26.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. is 28.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN)?
The operating margin of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. is 44.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN)?
Revenue at Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. is growing +24.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +45.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN)?
Earnings per share at Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. are growing +8.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN) generate?
The free cash flow of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. is −5.4B TRY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. (GARAN) carry?
The net debt of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. is 394B TRY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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