Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Naturgy BAN SA ARS 1,838, price ARS 1,775, upside +3.5%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 26.00 ARS – 2,835 ARS · fair‑value band 1,114 ARS – 3,158 ARS · the 1,775 ARS price screens below the 1,838 ARS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Naturgy BAN, S.A. engages in natural gas distribution business. The company was formerly known as Gas Natural Ban, S.A. and changed its name to Naturgy BAN, S.A. in January 2019. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Naturgy BAN, S.A. is a subsidiary of Invergas, S.A.
Stock analysis
Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN) currently trades at 1,775 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,838 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 3.4% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 9,759 ARS per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the 1,775 ARS price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 931.97 ARS, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1,114 ARS (bear) to 3,158 ARS (bull), the price of 1,775 ARS sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Naturgy BAN SA reported revenue of 811B ARS in FY2025 versus 38.7B ARS in FY2021, a compound +114.0%/yr. Reported net income was 183B ARS in FY2025, compounding +195.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 578B ARS (≈ $380M) · P/E ratio 3.4 · P/S ratio 0.78 · EPS (TTM) 543.48 ARS · Net margin 22.6% · Return on equity 42.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.3% · Operating margin 17.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 4%, GBAN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1,114 ARSFair Value 1,838 ARSBull 3,158 ARS
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (399.05 ARS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+130.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+89.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +82.5% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+82.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.9% (2019) → 19.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Argentina: IMF forecast 13.8% a year to 2030) that is about −15.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)42% · Top 25%
Return on assets16% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Naturgy BAN SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GBAN
Frequently asked questions
Is Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,838 ARS versus a price of 1,775 ARS, about +4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GBAN?
Our model-based fair value for Naturgy BAN SA is 1,838 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,775 ARS.
What is the quality score of GBAN?
Naturgy BAN SA has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1,838 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1,114 ARS, optimistic scenario 3,158 ARS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Naturgy BAN SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1,838 ARS, about +4% upside versus a price of 1,775 ARS (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 1,114 ARS, optimistic scenario 3,158 ARS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN)?
Naturgy BAN SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 806B ARS (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Naturgy BAN SA would have to grow free cash flow by -3.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 20.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +89.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GBAN use?
Our models discount Naturgy BAN SA at 20.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Argentina. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Naturgy BAN SA that is -3.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (20.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Naturgy BAN SA grew +89.6 % a year. The price currently implies -3.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Naturgy BAN SA (-3.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.00 %: that much free cash flow Naturgy BAN SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (20.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Naturgy BAN SA it is 1,838 ARS per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 1,775 ARS. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Naturgy BAN SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GBAN trades below its calculated fair value: price 1,775 ARS, fair value 1,838 ARS, a gap of about +4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GBAN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,775 ARS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1,838 ARS). For Naturgy BAN SA the two are 62.50 ARS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Naturgy BAN SA worth?
The market values Naturgy BAN SA at about 578B ARS (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 1,775 ARS; our models calculate a fair value of 1,838 ARS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GBAN?
Our models span a range for Naturgy BAN SA: cautious scenario 1,114 ARS, base 1,838 ARS, optimistic 3,158 ARS per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 1,775 ARS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GBAN?
Naturgy BAN SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1,838 ARS is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 2.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Naturgy BAN SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 42.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GBAN from its 52-week high?
Naturgy BAN SA trades at 1,775 ARS, about 32% below its 52-week high of 2,595 ARS and 33% above the low of 1,335 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1,838 ARS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Naturgy BAN SA?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, NiSource Inc, Uniper SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Naturgy BAN SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 1,775 ARS, calculated fair value 1,838 ARS (+4%), Quality Score 70/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GBAN calculated?
We run Naturgy BAN SA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1,838 ARS, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Naturgy BAN SA currently trades 4 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 1,775 ARS. Our model-based fair value is 1,838 ARS, about +4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Naturgy BAN SA right now?
The model range is unusually wide (1,114 ARS to 3,158 ARS). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Naturgy BAN SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN)?
The market capitalisation of Naturgy BAN SA is 578B ARS (≈ $380M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Naturgy BAN SA is 0.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN)?
Earnings per share at Naturgy BAN SA are 543.48 ARS (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN)?
The net margin of Naturgy BAN SA is 22.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Naturgy BAN SA is 42.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Naturgy BAN SA is 15.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN)?
The operating margin of Naturgy BAN SA is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN)?
Revenue at Naturgy BAN SA is growing −3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +131%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN)?
Earnings per share at Naturgy BAN SA are growing −23.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Naturgy BAN SA (GBAN) carry?
The net debt of Naturgy BAN SA is 328M ARS (fiscal year 2017, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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