GB Group (GBG) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · GB · Market cap 514M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 20, 2026, revised from £0.9100 to £2.00 (+119.8%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +13.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 11% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (£1.41 to £2.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from £1.41 (bear) to £2.59 (bull), base £2.00. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 60/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.73 – £8.34 · fair‑value band £1.41 – £2.59 · the £2.25 price screens above the £2.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
GB Group (GBG) currently trades at £2.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £2.00, implying the stock looks roughly 10.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, GB Group generated revenue of £281M at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue declined 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.6%. Net debt stands at £82.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £1.41 (bear case) to £2.59 (bull case); at £2.25, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -11%, GBG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£3.00) versus Dividend Discount (£0.6100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
GB Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides identity data intelligence products and services in the United Kingdom, the United States, Australia, and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Location, Identity, and Fraud.
Full company description
GB Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides identity data intelligence products and services in the United Kingdom, the United States, Australia, and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Location, Identity, and Fraud. It offers Instinct, a fraud risk management platform; ID3global, identity verification solution; mobile intelligence; and Investigate, search subject analysis solution. The company also provides biometric authentication solution; document identity proofing solution; and synthetic identity fraud solution. It serves banking, retail, government, financial services and fintech, lending, gaming and wagering, events, crypto and FX, pensions, public sector, and insurance industries. The company was formerly known as Telme Group plc and changed its name to GB Group plc in February 2002. GB Group plc was incorporated in 1989 and is based in Chester, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
GB Group reported revenue of £285M in FY2026 versus £242M in FY2022, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was −£75.1M in FY2026.
GBG screens 11% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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