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Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Greene County Bancorp Inc stock $20.38, price $36.13, that is 43.6% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

GC Greene County Bancorp Inc logo Broad data Nov 6, 2026

Greene County Bancorp Inc

GCBC · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 44% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +16.5 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 46.7% net margin (TTM)
1.2% dividend yield · Low payout
Broad data
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +25%, profit +41%.
Quality 59/100
Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
Wide moat 70/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $287,700 (6M)
Fair value $20.38 · Strongly overvalued
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$36.59 $13.66 Fair Value $20.38 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $13.66 – $36.59 · fair‑value band $15.83 – $32.13 · the $36.13 price screens above the $20.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Greene County Bancorp, Inc. operates as a holding company for The Bank of Greene County that provides various financial services in the United States.

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The company offers deposit products, such as savings, NOW accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, non-interest bearing checking accounts, and individual retirement accounts.

Its loan portfolio includes residential, construction and land loans; commercial real estate mortgages; consumer loans, including loans on new and used automobiles, personal loans, and home equity loans, as well as other consumer installment loans comprising passbook loans, unsecured home improvement loans, recreational vehicle loans, and deposit account overdrafts; and commercial loans.

In addition, it provides transaction processing and investment brokerage services. Further, it engages in the sale of securities and the operation of banking office, lending centers, an operations center, customer call center, administration center, and a wealth management center.

The company was founded in 1889 and is based in Catskill, New York. Greene County Bancorp, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Greene County Bancorp, MHC.

Stock analysis

Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC) currently trades at $36.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.38, 44% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $27.09 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $36.13 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.71, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $15.83 (bear) to $32.13 (bull), the price of $36.13 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Greene County Bancorp Inc reported revenue of $146M in FY2026 versus $75.6M in FY2022, a compound +17.9%/yr. Reported net income was $41.0M in FY2026, compounding +10.0%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $615M Small · P/E ratio 13.8 · P/S ratio 6.44 · EPS (TTM) $2.62 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 46.7% · Return on equity 16.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −44%, GCBC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $15.83 Fair Value $20.38 Bull $32.13
Price $36.13 · Downside -43.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7896 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $15.83 $20.38 $32.13 74
Gordon GGM $2.03 $3.95 $5.83 67
DDM Multi-Stage $2.03 $3.46 $4.18 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $2.03 $3.95 $5.83 67
DDM Multi-Stage $2.03 $3.46 $4.18 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $23.49 $31.32 $39.15 63
P/B Multiple $17.13 $22.85 $28.56 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.16 $10.93 $16.32 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $15.83 $20.38 $32.13 74

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 38
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 71
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 83
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 1
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 66
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 83
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 84
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 99
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $287,700 and none bought.

  • SaleMichelle M PlummerDirector10,000 shares at $28.77$287,700Jun 11, 2026
  • BuyJohn BrustDirector4,121 shares at $24.28$100,039Apr 28, 2026
  • BuyTejraj S HadaDirector3× since Nov 14, 2025: 9,366 shares, avg. $21.96$205,712Mar 18, 2026
  • BuyPeter W. HoganDirector3,000 shares at $22.10$66,300Mar 18, 2026
  • BuyNick BarzeeSVP and CFO1,280 shares at $22.55$28,864Mar 5, 2026
  • BuyChristopher CannucciariDirector1,300 shares at $22.05$28,665Mar 2, 2026
  • BuyJohn AntalekEVP and CLO1,500 shares at $22.00$33,000Nov 18, 2025

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.4% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.4% vs 16.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.41% → 32%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)

GCBC screens overvalued: fair value 44% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 997 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside −43.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 16.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 46.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 57.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 24.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.13× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 13.8× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.21× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 6.44× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 14.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 13.6× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.83× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)67 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)23 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs GCBC
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs GCBC
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs GCBC
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs GCBC
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs GCBC
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs GCBC
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.90 −37% vs GCBC
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs GCBC
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs GCBC
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs GCBC

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Greene County Bancorp Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Greene County Bancorp Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GCBC

Frequently asked questions

Is Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.38 versus a price of $36.13, about 44% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GCBC?
Our model-based fair value for Greene County Bancorp Inc is $20.38 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.13.
What is the quality score of GCBC?
Greene County Bancorp Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.38 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.83, optimistic scenario $32.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Greene County Bancorp Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.38, about 44% lower versus a price of $36.13 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.83, optimistic scenario $32.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC)?
Greene County Bancorp Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $95.5M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Greene County Bancorp Inc pay a dividend?
Greene County Bancorp Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.16% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Greene County Bancorp Inc pays a dividend of $0.42 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.2%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 13, 2026, with payment on Nov 27, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2000. The payout ratio is 16.0% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Greene County Bancorp Inc it is $20.38 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $36.13. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Greene County Bancorp Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, GCBC trades above its calculated fair value: price $36.13, fair value $20.38, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GCBC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.38). For Greene County Bancorp Inc the two are $15.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Greene County Bancorp Inc worth?
The market values Greene County Bancorp Inc at about $615M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $36.13; our models calculate a fair value of $20.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GCBC?
Our models span a range for Greene County Bancorp Inc: cautious scenario $15.83, base $20.38, optimistic $32.13 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $36.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GCBC?
Greene County Bancorp Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 2.2, P/S 6.4, EV/EBITDA 13.6.
What is the PEG ratio of GCBC?
The PEG ratio of Greene County Bancorp Inc is 1.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Greene County Bancorp Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 16.7%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GCBC from its 52-week high?
Greene County Bancorp Inc trades at $36.13, about 1% below its 52-week high of $36.59 and 69% above the low of $21.36 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Greene County Bancorp Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Greene County Bancorp Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $36.13, calculated fair value $20.38 (−44%), Quality Score 59/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GCBC calculated?
We run Greene County Bancorp Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $20.38 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Greene County Bancorp Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $36.13. Our model-based fair value is $20.38, about 44% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Greene County Bancorp Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($32.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($15.83 to $32.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC) come from?
Earnings per share at Greene County Bancorp Inc grew +15.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.7 %, EBIT margin −2.4 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Greene County Bancorp Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC)?
The market capitalisation of Greene County Bancorp Inc is $615M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Greene County Bancorp Inc is 6.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC)?
Earnings per share at Greene County Bancorp Inc are $2.62 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC)?
The dividend yield of Greene County Bancorp Inc is 1.2% (payout 16.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC)?
The net margin of Greene County Bancorp Inc is 46.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Greene County Bancorp Inc is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Greene County Bancorp Inc is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC)?
The operating margin of Greene County Bancorp Inc is 57.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC)?
Revenue at Greene County Bancorp Inc is growing +24.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +25.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC)?
Earnings per share at Greene County Bancorp Inc are growing +41.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC) generate?
The free cash flow of Greene County Bancorp Inc is $41.6M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Greene County Bancorp Inc (GCBC) carry?
The net debt of Greene County Bancorp Inc is $143M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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