GDEV Inc. (GDEV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of GDEV Inc. $32.70, price $10.90, upside +200.0%, quality 82 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.41 – $89.38 · fair‑value band $20.87 – $46.70 · the $10.90 price screens below the $32.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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GDEV Inc. develops and publishes online games in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company offers various games through mobile, social, and web-based platforms. It also provides franchise gaming in the role-playing game genre. The company was formerly known as Nexters Inc. and changed its name to GDEV Inc. in June 2023. GDEV Inc.
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GDEV Inc. develops and publishes online games in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company offers various games through mobile, social, and web-based platforms. It also provides franchise gaming in the role-playing game genre. The company was formerly known as Nexters Inc. and changed its name to GDEV Inc. in June 2023. GDEV Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Limassol, Cyprus.
Stock analysis
GDEV Inc. (GDEV) currently trades at $10.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.70, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $70.97 per share, and 23 of the 23 models we run sit above the $10.90 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $19.98, and 0 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $20.87 (bear) to $46.70 (bull), the price of $10.90 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
GDEV Inc. reported revenue of $404M in FY2025 versus $434M in FY2021, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was $69.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $230M · P/E ratio 2.9 · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) $3.73 · Net margin 17.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8% · Operating margin 15.3% · Revenue (TTM) $404M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at 200%, GDEV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $20.87Fair Value $32.70Bull $46.70
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.74 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.6%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+39.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+39.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 18%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.5% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (53 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 149 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score82 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets18% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)17% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)24.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.57× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF7.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA2.3× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.74× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 7
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 52
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GDEV Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GDEV
Frequently asked questions
Is GDEV Inc. (GDEV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.70 versus a price of $10.90, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GDEV?
Our model-based fair value for GDEV Inc. is $32.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.90.
What is the quality score of GDEV?
GDEV Inc. has a Quality Score of 82/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GDEV Inc. (GDEV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.87, optimistic scenario $46.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GDEV Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.70, about +200% upside versus a price of $10.90 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $20.87, optimistic scenario $46.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GDEV Inc. (GDEV)?
GDEV Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $404M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into GDEV Inc. (GDEV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, GDEV Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -18.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GDEV use?
Our models discount GDEV Inc. at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.24, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For GDEV Inc. that is -18.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has GDEV Inc. (GDEV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at GDEV Inc. grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies -18.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of GDEV Inc. (GDEV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into GDEV Inc. (-18.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of GDEV Inc. (GDEV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.74 %: that much free cash flow GDEV Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of GDEV Inc. (GDEV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GDEV Inc. it is $32.70 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $10.90. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GDEV Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GDEV trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.90, fair value $32.70, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GDEV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.70). For GDEV Inc. the two are $21.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GDEV Inc. worth?
The market values GDEV Inc. at about $230M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $10.90; our models calculate a fair value of $32.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GDEV?
Our models span a range for GDEV Inc.: cautious scenario $20.87, base $32.70, optimistic $46.70 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $10.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GDEV?
GDEV Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 2.3.
What is the PEG ratio of GDEV?
The PEG ratio of GDEV Inc. is 0.74 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of GDEV Inc. (GDEV)?
Balance-sheet figures for GDEV Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 82/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GDEV from its 52-week high?
GDEV Inc. trades at $10.90, about 70% below its 52-week high of $36.20 and 3% above the low of $10.63 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GDEV Inc.?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Konami Group, NetEase, Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc, Roblox Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GDEV Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $10.90, calculated fair value $32.70 (+200%), Quality Score 82/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GDEV calculated?
We run GDEV Inc. through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $32.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. GDEV Inc. currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GDEV Inc. (GDEV)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $10.90. Our model-based fair value is $32.70, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GDEV Inc. right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (82/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($20.87). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($20.87 to $46.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of GDEV Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of GDEV Inc. (GDEV)?
The market capitalisation of GDEV Inc. is $230M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GDEV Inc. (GDEV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GDEV Inc. is 0.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GDEV Inc. (GDEV)?
Earnings per share at GDEV Inc. are $3.73 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of GDEV Inc. (GDEV)?
The net margin of GDEV Inc. is 17.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GDEV Inc. (GDEV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GDEV Inc. is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GDEV Inc. (GDEV)?
The operating margin of GDEV Inc. is 15.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GDEV Inc. (GDEV)?
Revenue at GDEV Inc. is growing −7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GDEV Inc. (GDEV)?
Earnings per share at GDEV Inc. are growing +67.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does GDEV Inc. (GDEV) hold?
GDEV Inc. holds more cash than debt, $57.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026