Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS TRY 11.65, price TRY 23.96, upside -51.4%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 7.54 TRY – 42.62 TRY · fair‑value band 8.59 TRY – 11.65 TRY · the 23.96 TRY price screens above the 11.65 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. produces and sells corrugated polypropylene sheets in Türkiye.
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Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. produces and sells corrugated polypropylene sheets in Türkiye. Its products are used in the glass packaging, white appliances, iron work, logistics, automotives, separators, stationery, multipurpose and archive boxes, recycling bins, vegetable/fruit and flower boxes, pet kennel, signboards and stands, beehive, buildings and isolation, sapling shield, and greenhouse applications. The company was incorporated in 1982 and is based in Gediz, Türkiye.
Stock analysis
Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA) currently trades at 23.96 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11.65 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 105.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 22.43 TRY per share, and 5 of the 15 models we run sit above the 23.96 TRY price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 5.96 TRY, and 10 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 8.59 TRY (bear) to 11.65 TRY (bull), the price of 23.96 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS reported revenue of 1.1B TRY in FY2025 versus 126M TRY in FY2021, a compound +70.5%/yr. Reported net income was 16.4M TRY in FY2025, compounding −27.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.3B TRY (≈ $26.7M) · P/E ratio 66.6 · P/S ratio 1.02 · EPS (TTM) 0.3600 TRY · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 1.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.7% · Operating margin 14.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at −51%, GEDZA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 8.59 TRYFair Value 11.65 TRYBull 11.65 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2624 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.1%
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−22.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 25%
Compare Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 702 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−78% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)66.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.21× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.18× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA3.8× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)62· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)6· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 28
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GEDZA
Frequently asked questions
Is Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 11.65 TRY versus a price of 23.96 TRY, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GEDZA?
Our model-based fair value for Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 11.65 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 23.96 TRY.
What is the quality score of GEDZA?
Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 11.65 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario 8.59 TRY, optimistic scenario 11.65 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 11.65 TRY, about −51% upside versus a price of 23.96 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 8.59 TRY, optimistic scenario 11.65 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA)?
Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.1B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS it is 11.65 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 23.96 TRY. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, GEDZA trades above its calculated fair value: price 23.96 TRY, fair value 11.65 TRY, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GEDZA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (23.96 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (11.65 TRY). For Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS the two are 12.31 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS worth?
The market values Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS at about 1.3B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 23.96 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 11.65 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GEDZA?
Our models span a range for Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS: cautious scenario 8.59 TRY, base 11.65 TRY, optimistic 11.65 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 23.96 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GEDZA?
Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 66.6 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 11.65 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 3.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 1.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GEDZA from its 52-week high?
Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS trades at 23.96 TRY, about 40% below its 52-week high of 40.26 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 11.65 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 23.96 TRY, calculated fair value 11.65 TRY (−51%), Quality Score 50/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GEDZA calculated?
We run Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 11.65 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was 23.96 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 11.65 TRY, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (11.65 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA)?
The market capitalisation of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 1.3B TRY (≈ $26.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 1.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA)?
Earnings per share at Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS are 0.3600 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 66.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA)?
The net margin of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 16.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA)?
The operating margin of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA)?
Revenue at Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is growing +12.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA)?
Earnings per share at Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS are growing +29.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (GEDZA) generate?
The free cash flow of Gediz Ambalaj Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is −50.4M TRY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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