Graco Inc (GGG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Graco Inc stock $61.12, price $67.97, that is 10.1% below the price, quality 80 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $54.07 – $94.50 · fair‑value band $45.52 – $75.54 · the $67.97 price screens above the $61.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Graco Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets systems and equipment used to move, measure, mix, control, dispense, and spray fluid and powder materials in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
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It operates through three segments: Contractor, Industrial and Expansion Markets.
The Contractor segment provides sprayers to apply paint to walls and other structures; two-component proportioning systems to spray polyurethane foam and polyurea coatings; viscous coatings to roofs, markings on roads, parking lots, athletic fields, and floors; and high-performance volumetric and gravimetric dispense, mixing, and shaking equipment.
The Industrial segment designs and manufactures liquid finishing and advanced fluid dispensing equipment; pumps to move chemicals, petroleum, food, and other fluids; and systems, components, and accessories for the automatic lubrication of bearings, gears, and generators; supplies equipment for equipment maintenance and vehicle servicing applications, as well as make powder finishing products and complete powder finishing systems.
The Expansion Markets segment manufactures pumps for use in the semiconductor industry; high pressure and ultra-high-pressure valves used in the oil and natural gas industry; and environmental monitoring and remediation equipment that is used to conduct ground water sampling, ground water remediation, and for landfill liquid and gas management.
Graco Inc. was incorporated in 1926 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Stock analysis
Graco Inc (GGG) currently trades at $67.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $61.12, 10% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $67.71 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $67.97 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $17.03, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $45.52 (bear) to $75.54 (bull), the price of $67.97 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Graco Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $2.0B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was $522M in FY2025, compounding +4.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $13.2B Large · P/E ratio 21.9 · P/S ratio 5.84 · EPS (TTM) $3.10 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 23.5% · Return on equity 21.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 85 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −10%, GGG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$45.52Fair Value $61.12Bull$75.54
Price $67.97 · Downside -10.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.65 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $257,472 and none bought.
SaleEric EtchartDirector3,218 shares at $80.01$257,472Aug 3, 2026
BuyAndrea Helen SimonDirector1,240 shares at $80.53$99,857Apr 27, 2026
SaleAngela F WordellEVP, Chief Op and Supply Chain2,832 shares at $93.22$263,999Feb 6, 2026
SaleTimothy R WhitePres, Expansion Division1,469 shares at $90.70$133,238Feb 4, 2026
SaleJ Kevin GilliganDirector12,870 shares at $89.07$1.1MFeb 3, 2026
SaleKathryn L SchoenrockEVP, Chief Information Officer2,223 shares at $88.06$195,757Feb 2, 2026
SalePeter J O'SheaPres, Global Industrial Divis8,820 shares at $88.10$777,042Feb 2, 2026
SaleClaudio MerengoPres, Global Powder Division14,410 shares at $87.03$1.3MJan 30, 2026
Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.7% a year
Revenue growth 42 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.0% vs 9.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 27%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.2% a year for the price and +2.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Financial metrics indicate solid profitability as the main strength, while sparse public signals leave moat durability unconfirmed as the key weakness.
Main risk: Low-cost manufacturers from Asia could offer cheaper alternatives in fluid handling and dispensing equipment, forcing Graco to lower prices or lose share in industrial and contractor segments.
Bull case: Graco could leverage its global scale, cross-selling from Valco Melton and data-center motor licensing to expand into higher-growth niches and offset any competitive or cost pressures through innovation and service.
Bear case: Persistent integration shortfalls combined with Asian pricing pressure and tariff-driven cost increases could erode margins and slow organic growth, limiting the ability to sustain historical profitability levels.
Graco recently completed its acquisition of Valco Melton, adding precision adhesive application systems to its fluid handling technologies and reaching new packaging and industrial customers. The deal expands the portfolio in a core specialty machinery space, yet our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the added capabilities generate enough incremental growth and synergies to offset integration risks and sustain the business's track record, or will they stretch resources without clear returns?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 808 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−10.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)21.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets15.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)23.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)29.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.7% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)21.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B4.99× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)5.84× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)20.8× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Graco Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GGG
Frequently asked questions
Is Graco Inc (GGG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $61.12 versus a price of $67.97, about 10% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GGG?
Our model-based fair value for Graco Inc is $61.12 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $67.97.
What is the quality score of GGG?
Graco Inc has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Graco Inc (GGG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $61.12 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $45.52, optimistic scenario $75.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Graco Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $61.12, about 10% lower versus a price of $67.97 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $45.52, optimistic scenario $75.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Graco Inc (GGG)?
Graco Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Graco Inc pay a dividend?
Graco Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.71% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Graco Inc (GGG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Graco Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +4.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GGG use?
Our models discount Graco Inc at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Graco Inc that is +4.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Graco Inc (GGG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Graco Inc grew +6.3 % a year. The price currently implies +4.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Graco Inc (GGG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Graco Inc (+4.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Graco Inc (GGG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.58 %: that much free cash flow Graco Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Graco Inc (GGG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Graco Inc it is $61.12 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $67.97. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Graco Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, GGG trades above its calculated fair value: price $67.97, fair value $61.12, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GGG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($67.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($61.12). For Graco Inc the two are $6.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Graco Inc worth?
The market values Graco Inc at about $13.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $67.97; our models calculate a fair value of $61.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GGG?
Our models span a range for Graco Inc: cautious scenario $45.52, base $61.12, optimistic $75.54 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $67.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GGG?
Graco Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $61.12 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 23.0 (reported for FY2025: 21.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 29.5. Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 5.0, P/S 5.8, EV/EBITDA 17.2.
What is the PEG ratio of GGG?
The PEG ratio of Graco Inc is 2.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Graco Inc (GGG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Graco Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 21.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GGG from its 52-week high?
Graco Inc trades at $67.97, about 28% below its 52-week high of $94.50 and 3% above the low of $66.07 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $61.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Graco Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Graco Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $67.97, calculated fair value $61.12 (−10%), Quality Score 80/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GGG calculated?
We run Graco Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $61.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Graco Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Graco Inc (GGG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $67.97. Our model-based fair value is $61.12, about 10% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Graco Inc right now?
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Graco Inc (GGG) come from?
Earnings per share at Graco Inc grew +11.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.6 %, EBIT margin +4.4 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Graco Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Graco Inc (GGG)?
The market capitalisation of Graco Inc is $13.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Graco Inc (GGG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Graco Inc is 5.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Graco Inc (GGG)?
Earnings per share at Graco Inc are $3.10 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Graco Inc (GGG)?
The dividend yield of Graco Inc is 1.7% (payout 39.4%, on adjusted earnings, reported 37.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Graco Inc (GGG)?
The net margin of Graco Inc is 23.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Graco Inc (GGG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Graco Inc is 21.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Graco Inc (GGG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Graco Inc is 21.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Graco Inc (GGG)?
The operating margin of Graco Inc is 29.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Graco Inc (GGG)?
Revenue at Graco Inc is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Graco Inc (GGG)?
Earnings per share at Graco Inc are growing +14.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Graco Inc (GGG) hold?
Graco Inc holds more cash than debt, $563M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026