Graco Inc (GGG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $12.3B
Graco Inc
GGG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $65.95 to $59.65 (−9.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +10.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 28% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($73.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $54.07 – $94.50 · fair‑value band $44.67 – $73.71 · the $83.05 price screens above the $59.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Graco Inc (GGG) currently trades at $83.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $59.65, implying the stock looks roughly 28.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Graco Inc generated revenue of $2.2B at a net margin of 23.0%. Revenue grew 2.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $563M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $44.67 (bear case) to $73.71 (bull case); at $83.05, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -28%, GGG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($64.79) versus Asset-Based ($10.71). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 79 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Graco Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets systems and equipment used to move, measure, mix, control, dispense, and spray fluid and powder materials in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Contractor, Industrial and Expansion Markets.
Full company description
Graco Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets systems and equipment used to move, measure, mix, control, dispense, and spray fluid and powder materials in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Contractor, Industrial and Expansion Markets. The Contractor segment provides sprayers to apply paint to walls and other structures; two-component proportioning systems to spray polyurethane foam and polyurea coatings; viscous coatings to roofs, markings on roads, parking lots, athletic fields, and floors; and high-performance volumetric and gravimetric dispense, mixing, and shaking equipment. The Industrial segment designs and manufactures liquid finishing and advanced fluid dispensing equipment; pumps to move chemicals, petroleum, food, and other fluids; and systems, components, and accessories for the automatic lubrication of bearings, gears, and generators; supplies equipment for equipment maintenance and vehicle servicing applications, as well as make powder finishing products and complete powder finishing systems. The Expansion Markets segment manufactures pumps for use in the semiconductor industry; high pressure and ultra-high-pressure valves used in the oil and natural gas industry; and environmental monitoring and remediation equipment that is used to conduct ground water sampling, ground water remediation, and for landfill liquid and gas management. Graco Inc. was incorporated in 1926 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Graco Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $2.0B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was $522M in FY2025, compounding +4.4%/yr from FY2021.
GGG screens 28% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 807 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €967.60 | €212.97 | -78% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €284.30 | €122.46 | -57% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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