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GM Breweries Limited (GMBREW) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · IN · Market cap ₹22.4B

GB GM Breweries Limited GMBREW · NSE
Price₹894.75
Fair Value₹1,167
Upside+30.4%
Quality43/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 9.0% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
0.93% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
Narrow moat 40/100
Evidence: High Range ₹468.71 – ₹1,459 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated 3 days ago

Share price −1.6% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 30% undervalued on our models.

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What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The model range is unusually wide (₹468.71 to ₹1,459). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

₹1,252 ₹296.83 Fair Value ₹1,167 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ₹296.83 – ₹1,252 · fair‑value band ₹468.71 – ₹1,459 · the ₹894.75 price screens below the ₹1,167 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

GM Breweries Limited (GMBREW) currently trades at ₹894.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹1,167, implying the stock looks roughly 30.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, GM Breweries Limited generated revenue of ₹17.4B at a net margin of 9.0%. Revenue grew 25.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.6%. Net debt stands at ₹329M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ₹468.71 (bear case) to ₹1,459 (bull case); at ₹894.75, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at 30%, GMBREW screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ₹466.39 ₹626.13 ₹1,985 76
ROIC Compounder ₹585.52 ₹832.81 ₹1,052 72
Gordon GGM ₹68.86 ₹143.18 ₹227.14 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ₹801.16 ₹1,822 ₹3,966 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ₹466.78 ₹3,255 ₹4,568 54
Lynch FV ₹1,042 ₹1,489 ₹1,936 50
PEG = 1.0 ₹1,042 ₹1,489 ₹1,936 46
EPV ₹529.72 ₹617.89 ₹695.04 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ₹68.86 ₹143.18 ₹227.14 70
DDM Multi-Stage ₹68.86 ₹120.73 ₹150.27 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ₹1,081 ₹1,442 ₹1,802 63
P/S Multiple ₹392.80 ₹523.73 ₹654.66 58
P/B Multiple ₹875.21 ₹1,167 ₹1,459 55
EV/EBIT ₹980.20 ₹1,307 ₹1,633 53
EV/EBITDA ₹771.87 ₹1,029 ₹1,286 54
EV/Revenue ₹344.38 ₹491.68 ₹638.98 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ₹235.98 ₹316.21 ₹471.95 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ₹466.39 ₹626.13 ₹1,985 76
ROIC Compounder ₹585.52 ₹832.81 ₹1,052 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ₹1,392 ₹1,988 ₹2,584 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (₹1,988) versus Dividend Discount (₹120.73). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) ₹17.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) +25.5%
Net margin 9.0%
Return on equity 15.6%
Free cash flow −₹1.4B FY2026
P/E ratio 13.0
More key figures
Operating margin -11.9%
EPS (TTM) ₹68.62
Dividend yield 0.9%
EPS growth (YoY) -10.6%
Net debt ₹329M FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 80
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 37
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 53
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

G.M. Breweries Limited manufactures and sells alcoholic beverages in India. The company offers Indian made foreign liquor and country liquor. It offers its products under the G.M.SANTRA, G.M.DOCTOR, G.M.LIMBU PUNCH, and G.M.DILBAHAR SOUNF brand names. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Mumbai, India.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

GM Breweries Limited reported revenue of ₹7.5B in FY2026 versus ₹17.8B in FY2022, a compound −19.5%/yr. Reported net income was ₹1.6B in FY2026, compounding +13.8%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
₹7.5B
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+25.6%
Avg. growth/yr (19Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.6%
Revenue −19.5%/yr
FY22 ₹17.8B
FY23 ₹5.9B
FY24 ₹14.1B
FY25 ₹14.6B
FY26 ₹7.5B
Net income +13.8%/yr
FY22 ₹934M
FY23 ₹999M
FY24 ₹1.5B
FY25 ₹1.3B
FY26 ₹1.6B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +13.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +12.9 pp

of which total revenue +14.8 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.0 pp

EBIT margin −3.0 pp
Tax rate +2.2 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GM Breweries Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GMBREW

Peer Group

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +30% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) -12% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 26% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.08× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.29× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 12.4× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 74 · sector 17
FUTURE 100 · sector 0
PAST 62 · sector 17
HEALTH 100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 19 · sector 61

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 ¥1,343 ¥1,238 -8%
Diageo plc DEO $93.96 $73.29 -22%
Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 ¥75.28 ¥48.44 -36%
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 ¥122.32 ¥185.80 +52%
Pernod Ricard SA RI €67.96 €76.13 +12%
Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 ¥91.09 ¥149.17 +64%
Brown-Forman Corporation BFA $28.40 $27.69 -3%
United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR ₹1,515 ₹381.12 -75%
Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 0.4700 SGD 0.7000 SGD +49%
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 ¥41.62 ¥27.82 -33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is GM Breweries Limited (GMBREW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹1,167 versus a price of ₹894.75, about +30% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GMBREW?
Our model-based fair value for GM Breweries Limited is ₹1,167 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ₹894.75.
What is the quality score of GMBREW?
GM Breweries Limited has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of GM Breweries Limited (GMBREW)?
GM Breweries Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹17.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GMBREW?
The net profit margin of GM Breweries Limited is about 9.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does GM Breweries Limited pay a dividend?
GM Breweries Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.93% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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